{UAH} How Museveni is getting in the way of South Sudanese peace - Opinion/Editorial - thecitizen.co.tz
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Friends
In your entire life, be very careful with evidence ever produced by 4 people on earth, Kofi Annan, Prof Mahmoud Mamdani, Collin Powell and Tony Blair. Those three, for some only Godly known reason have the ability to see what the rest of society simply doesn't.
Thus using them as a back ground on any piece can easily be intellectually fatal.
EM
On the 49th Parallel
Thé Mulindwas Communication Group
"With Yoweri Museveni and Dr. Kiiza Besigye Uganda is in anarchy"
Kuungana Mulindwa Mawasiliano Kikundi
"Pamoja na Yoweri Museveni na Dk. Kiiza Besigye Uganda ni katika machafuko"
From: ugandans-at-heart@googlegroups.com [mailto:ugandans-at-heart@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Ocen Nekyon
Sent: Sunday, February 23, 2014 9:39 PM
To: Ugandans At Heart At Heart
Subject: {UAH} How Museveni is getting in the way of South Sudanese peace - Opinion/Editorial - thecitizen.co.tz
How Museveni is getting in the way of South Sudanese peace - Opinion/Editorial
In Summary
Museveni has reportedly never forgiven Machar for his links to the Lord's Resistance Army rebellion led by international fugitive Joseph Kony. In Kampala's thinking, a Machar regime in Juba could provide fertile ground for even more potent anti-government groups.
Former UN secretary-general Kofi Annan in his book Interventions, A Life in War and Peace tells of an incident when he was mediating between Kenya's warring rivals following a disputed presidential election in 2007.
Having arrived in Nairobi with the formidable backing of the international community, he found Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni lying in wait for him, with a peace plan of his own. Museveni's brainwave was chiefly premised on the acceptance of the election by the Opposition. Claiming that both antagonists were open to the idea, he asked Annan to meet him at Kenya's State House to "discuss" the plan.
The Ghanaian was immediately wary. "I had seen so many ploys in my career to be caught by this," Annan wrote. "It seemed to me that Museveni and [Kenyan President Mwai] Kibaki fancied a scheme that all accept the election result, and to publicly spin my visit as endorsement of this plan."
Making his excuses, Annan made his enquiries that quickly confirmed his suspicions. The rival side had not been consulted, and would under no circumstances accept Museveni, a strong Kibaki ally, as a mediator.
Museveni quietly left town two days later.
The Ugandan leader again finds himself in the thick of South Sudan's deadly conflict, again with one side unreceptive to his methods or very presence in the country. A man not especially known for impartiality or subtlety, he still managed to give away too much while speaking at a fire-fighting summit for regional heads of state in Angola last month.
While the bullish disclosure that Ugandan soldiers were actively propping up Salva Kiir's teetering government was in itself startling, Museveni's admission that there were two sides to the fallout that led to the December 15 start date for the violence caused further consternation.
The question that naturally lent itself was, why then had the Ugandan leader hastily intervened in favour of one side if it was still unclear what exactly had transpired between Kiir and Dr Riek Machar, the man the South Sudanese President sacked as his deputy in July?
The in-your-face answer is that it was in Uganda's national interest to do so. Museveni has reportedly never forgiven Machar for his links to the Lord's Resistance Army rebellion led by international fugitive Joseph Kony. In Kampala's thinking, a Machar regime in Juba could provide fertile ground for even more potent anti-government groups.
Another conjecture holds that the blindingly fast deployment in South Sudan was to head off Omar al-Bashir's possibility of dabbling in the South. There is no love lost between Sudan and Uganda, who regularly trade accusations of supporting insurgents against each other. But Khartoum has been categorical that its interests are best served by a stable South Sudan, and that it will, significantly, not intervene militarily in the Kiir-Machar conflict.
You could even allow for a third line of thinking, pushed by Kampala, that a bilateral military agreement between South Sudan and Uganda allowed the latter to intervene. The only problem with this is that the supposed deal was signed three weeks after Kampala jumped into South Sudan fray, and in any case the bilateral treaty also provided that Uganda's parliament sanction such involvement - which it grudgingly did but only after the fact.
It is also questionable as asserted by some that Museveni is mainly advancing the interests of China, which is heavily invested in South Sudan's ubiquitous oil.
Museveni's penchant for intervening in regional conflicts is well known, but this time the international community's patience with him seems to be fast wearing thin, and it is possible that he may have overplayed his hand.
The United Nations, the US, Igad (the regional bloc mediating the peace talks between the two sides) and their host Ethiopia have all pointedly urged the veteran leader to pull out of South Sudan before the deadly spat spirals into a regional conflict.
Igad's role has been surprisingly strong and clear - the eight-member bloc is keen on a political solution. With the news that the January 23 ceasefire is already in tatters, in part due to the inability for the Machar side to trust the Ugandans, what does come across is that Kampala's military involvement was a poorly thought out decision, and presents the case for the under-pressure Museveni to negotiate a face-saving exit strategy.
For Museveni, a man who places inordinate faith in military solutions, there is also the real threat that the South Sudan adventure could end in diplomatic grief.
As renowned scholar Prof Mahmood Mamdani noted in a recent brilliant presentation at a retreat for legislators allied to the Ugandan ruling party, Ugandans only need to recall Julius Nyerere's intervention in Uganda in 1979.
The Tanzanian army rolled in to much acclaim but left with none after it decided to stay on after military victory to interfere in Uganda's internal affairs by taking sides.
Many experts share the consensus that the chance for real peace in South Sudan's historically complex dynamics lies only in political and institutional reform bundled with reconciliation.
Museveni's anti-reform credentials hardly inspire confidence in this area. He is simply not the man for the job.
How Museveni is getting in the way of South Sudanese peace - Opinion/Editorial - thecitizen.co.tz
http://www.thecitizen.co.tz/oped/How-Museveni-is-getting-in-the-way-of-South-Sudanese-peace/-/1840568/2215298/-/gdh2r0/-/index.html
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