{UAH} We should not allow the disintegration of Uganda

There are some people – Ugandans and/or others – who are working around the clock to disintegrate Uganda. They believe the current crisis in the country offers them a golden opportunity to mobilize the disaffected and secede. They are using the disintegration of former Yugoslavia, secession of Somaliland and South Sudan to make a strong case for the disintegration of Uganda. They don't care about the costs involved. For them the end justifies the means.

The record of secession is a very unhappy one. The southern states of the United States of America tried to secede but failed after heavy losses in lives and property. The Eastern region of Nigeria tried to secede but failed and lost about 2 million people. The Chechenya tried to secede but failed. Somaliland apparently seceded in 1991 but to my knowledge no government has recognized it. Yet the Somaliland case is being fronted by some Ugandans as the most successful example of secession that should be emulated.  

The secession of Buganda if it happens will create tremendous problems for Baganda and non-Baganda alike. There are many non-Baganda Ugandans who were born and have lived in Buganda since and don't know any other home.  Will they be thrown into the ocean or will they fight for their survival? There are many Baganda who were born outside Buganda and have lived there since. What will happen to them? The case of Serbs in all parts of former Yugoslavia should serve as an example of what might happen to Baganda outside Buganda.

The City of Greater Kampala will present serious problems especially if the non-Baganda out number Baganda and a referendum is called to determine the status of Kampala. We should draw lessons from Kosovo which is of historic importance to the Serb nation but 90 percent of the population is Albanian and have demanded independence.  

Buganda seceded twice already in 1960 and 1966 but failed to carry it out. In the latter case the Lukiiko under the influence of three people issued an ultimatum on May 20, 1966, demanding that the central government quit Buganda soil before May 30, 1966 – in nine days! The central government interpreted the ultimatum as an act of rebellion to be defeated. What happened is well known. These are lessons to learn from. We should also avoid a situation where a few people decide for the majority even if they represent them in the legislative assembly when it comes to matters of this magnitude.

There are signs that even if Buganda were to secede, it would not hold the new independent country together for long. The larger groups or clans would dominate the smaller ones and those who believe were conquered and colonized would demand decolonization by military force if necessary. Dividing Buganda into so many districts since the 1966 political crisis may have undermined the cohesion of Buganda as a nation.    

The case of Chechnya is very instructive. On November 1, 1991, Chechnya and Ingushetia seceded from the Soviet Union one month before the Union was annulled and formed one sovereign and independent state. Soon after the secession, the Chechens and Ingush split. On November 30, 1991 the Ingush people voted to join the Russian republic.

Buganda should not rule out the possibility that some clans could vote to rejoin Uganda after Buganda has seceded should they feel they are more secure as an integral part of Uganda than of independent Buganda.

To avoid this uncertainty, let all Ugandans come together in a national convention and discuss how we should be governed within the framework of Uganda. Some Baganda who had accepted the idea of federalism are now dragging their feet.

Together we can make Uganda a safe, secure, just, prosperous, inclusive and equitable country for all in the present and future generations.

These are difficult times and we need to discuss delicate matters with cool minds.

Eric