{UAH} The Observer - Thrown under yellow bus, what next for Mbabazi?

http://www.observer.ug/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=30528:thrown-under-yellow-bus-what-next-for-mbabazi&catid=34:news&Itemid=114

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The Observer - Thrown under yellow bus, what next for Mbabazi?

News

Thursday, 06 March 2014 23:55

Written by BENON HERBERT OLUKA

Yellow dynamics: PM Amama Mbabazi

With NRM legislators throwing their Secretary General Amama Mbabazi under the yellow bus this week, the question on many people's lips is what he will do next.

The MPs resolved to reduce the role of Uganda's prime minister in the running of the ruling party and recommended that he, his wife and sister-in-law face disciplinary action.

Although the decisions by the NRM's parliamentary caucus are not binding on the party, the fact that the vast majority of the organisation's most influential figures are members means Mbabazi is likely to be a lame duck secretary general for the remainder of his tenure.

Now 65, Mbabazi is also likely to be looking over his shoulder for Museveni's next move, with word whirling in the grapevine that the president could sack his erstwhile confidant from cabinet to extinguish his ambition.

Former Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) President Kizza Besigye, who knows a thing or three about trying to wrestle the presidency from Museveni, says this week's moves to clip Mbabazi's wings are a sign that he will be a marked man going forward.

"This, I believe, is only the beginning of the process of persecuting him for the grave offence of contemplating to vie for Mr Museveni's place as reigning dictator," notes the founding president of Uganda's leading opposition party in a post on social media.

Whether Mbabazi, who Besigye recently taunted as being a coward, has the mettle to face-off with the Museveni juggernaut is open to debate. What is clearer is that having been ambushed by young legislators allied to Museveni in Kyankwanzi, cornered by Museveni himself at State House, and forced to publicly and repeatedly reaffirm his allegiance to Museveni, Mbabazi has his back against the wall.

So what exactly did the Kinkizi West MP do wrong?
When Dr Kizza Besigye announced that he would challenge President Museveni in 1999, Mbabazi accused the retired army officer of jumping the queue. Since then, Mbabazi has spoken of himself as a disciplined NRM cadre who only sticks to doing the work that the party assigns to him.

Personal ambition

This time round, Mbabazi stands accused of working with his wife Jacqueline (chairperson, NRM Women's League) and daughter Nina to engineer a parallel queue that does not have Museveni at its apex. Rujumbura MP, Maj Gen Jim Muhwezi, says while there is nothing wrong with anyone vying for any office in the NRM, it was not right for any one to start electioneering mid-way the implementation of the party's current manifesto.

"It is unforgivable to find members of the same group – and senior members for that matter – diverting the party that they are supposed to lead into electioneering halfway the term of office," he said.

"It is in that context that we, as Members of Parliament, decided to urge the president to be our candidate come 2016. Why? Because these people who have too much appetite, who can't wait for that period, we should kill that appetite. We reduce it," added Gen Muhwezi, who is also chairman of NRM's Veterans League.

The spokesperson of the NRM parliamentary caucus, Evelyn Anite, said Mbabazi's camp had got ahead of itself when it started mobilising people to back the prime minister's ambitions, contrary to Rule 4 of the NRM Constitution that prohibits formation of internal cliques.

The 29-year-old Anite said the NRM would not fault Mbabazi for expressing his ambition to stand as the party's flag bearer if he did it at the right time.

"You can only offer yourself at the time of elections. It is not time for elections and at the moment the mandate that we have given him as a party is to mobilise for the party. If he decides to mobilise for himself as an individual, that is automatically abuse of his office," she said.

Anite, who moved the motion calling on Museveni to stand unopposed as NRM presidential candidate, however cut Mbabazi some slack. She said since the party did not have evidence that its secretary general had personally been involved in the mobilization work that his wife is accused of having done, then they could not fault him as an individual.

"The recordings did not pin him as Mbabazi," said the Northern Youth MP. "They were a plot to do with him but he came out clearly and told us he was not involved in the plot, he was not aware, so we can't start putting words in his mouth."

But Gen Muhwezi was less sympathetic, saying Mbabazi could not escape on a technicality.

"We are dealing with politics. We are not in court to say that there is no evidence. When it is politics, it is left to any person to draw judgment. If someone who is so close to you is doing certain things around you all the time and everybody else knows about it, and you say 'I don't know', it is up to us to believe him or not to believe him," he argued.

Muhwezi denied that some of the animosity against Mbabazi was personal, saying it was "not because we hate Mbabazi, but because we love the NRM more."

Sources however say that Mbabazi's status as Museveni's blue eyed boy brought him in conflict with many NRM leaders. Because of those old grievances, some senior NRM officials are willing to help Museveni nip Mbabazi's ambitions in the bud.

What next?

Having been put on the spot twice already, some analysts think Mbabazi should cut his losses and exit when he can still save face. According to Dr Sabiti Makara of Makerere University's Department of Political Science and Public Administration, the right thing for Mbabazi to do now is to step aside.

"He should have resigned and formed his own party. He has been disgraced, demeaned and ridiculed. You can't run a party when you are demeaned like that," said Dr Makara.

So far, Mbabazi – just like Museveni, and in keeping with his mode of operation – has kept his cards close to his chest. For much of his time in government, he has cultivated an image of a smooth operator. However, his Achilles' heel is the perception that he can't connect with ordinary people, which would make forming a separate political party not so appealing.

Dr Besigye on the other hand says Mbabazi should "do the decent thing and openly join the pro-democracy forces to bring lasting change in our country."

It is the second time that Besigye is wooing Mbabazi since the start of the year. Both Gen Muhwezi and Anite do not think Mbabazi should cut ties with the party that he has served for decades. Going by their arguments, all Mbabazi needs is to play by the party's rules – or at least not play his cards too soon.

Whichever way Mbabazi decides to go, in a battle for political survival vintage Museveni is likely to throw the kitchen and sink at his erstwhile confidant in order to extinguish his ambitions for the top job in the same way he has done with others before him who tried – like Dr Besigye.
hobenon@observer.ug

The Observer - Thrown under yellow bus, what next for Mbabazi?
http://www.observer.ug/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=30528:thrown-under-yellow-bus-what-next-for-mbabazi&catid=34:news&Itemid=114