{UAH} There will be hell when Russia's and Yankee bad manners come to Africa - Opinion - nation.co.ke

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There will be hell when Russia's and Yankee bad manners come to Africa - Opinion

By Charles Onyango-Obbo
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In a matter of days, Russia annexed the Ukraine region of Crimea after it masterminded a referendum there in which 95 per cent of the largely Russian population voted to "go back home".

It is the fastest a country has swallowed up bits of another nation. The West, led by the US, is up in arms. It has rejected the Crimea referendum and is slapping sanctions on Russia.

I see that Africa is divided, but many commentators (much like Russia President Vladimir Putin) have argued that America and countries like Britain have no moral authority to lecture Moscow on Crimea, because they are the world's leading aggressors. Look at how they invaded and trashed Iraq. See what they did in Afghanistan, and so on.

Of course there is a difference between invading a country and kicking out a regime you don't like and annexing it, but today we shall not dwell on that. I think, to use the cliché, we are missing the big picture.

What should interest us is what the collective actions of the US (invading other countries) and Russia's (annexing them) means. Remember Russia both invaded and annexed regions of neighbouring Georgia in 2008 and China is embroiled in territorial disputes with Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines.

An opinion writer on the Al Jazeera site called Russia's approach "annexation by passport". Apparently what Russia does is to give its passports to as many people in the territories that it wants to gobble up. Then when trouble starts (often stirred by Moscow), it moves in to protect Russians and pockets the land.

In the case of Ukraine, though, its political elite partly brought the problems on themselves. I was shocked two weeks ago while watching Fareed Zakaria's Global Public Square (GPS) on CNN to hear a panellist say that since the Soviet Union collapsed and Ukraine became independent in 1991, its economy has shrunk and today is smaller than during the days of communism.

He compared this with Poland, whose economy has grown several times bigger since 1991.

In other words, as we in East Africa would say, the corrupt Ukrainian ruling class ate itself out of a country. They lost the right to speak for their country.

So back to what all this means for us in East Africa, and more broadly in Africa.

In global diplomacy terms, the two powers that have most supported African countries when they protest against "external interference" in their domestic affairs (usually by the West), and defend their "territorial integrity" have been Russia and China.

Now they too have developed imperial appetites, and are either coveting other nation's territories or have actually grabbed them.

The Americans, British, and French have made invasion of other countries routine. Russia and China are making annexation or territorial expansion normal. We could therefore be moving in a world where to invade or grab your neighbour's land is just another day's work.

All around Africa, if this fashion catches on — and it will, or indeed should — you can expect some of the following: First, take (North) Sudan. It already had to let South Sudan go. It might not be long before it loses Darfur.

The vast Democratic Republic of the Congo is also a good candidate for break-up. If it got the Russian treatment, its eastern part could be carved up into a Kivu region that is under the influence of Rwanda, and a northern swathe that is Uganda's playground.

Troubled South Sudan could have the shortest life as an independent state. After a political feud inside the ruling Sudan People's Liberation Movement degenerated into an ethnic slaughter of Dinka and Nuers, it is hard to see how it can be stitched together as a nation where the two communities live together.

English-speaking south Cameroon could go, and Tanzania — bigger and richer than Malawi — could grab for itself the disputed part of Lake Malawi.

Kenya could carve out south Somalia into an affiliated territory administered by Nairobi (not wise to incorporate it into Kenya yet). Nigeria will break into north (largely Muslim) and south (Christian). Libya is already on the way to splintering.

The possibilities of break-up and annexation in Africa, many of them tragic, are endless. Some of it will be nasty but, still, it will be a good time to be a journalist.

cobbo@ke.nationmedia.com Twitter: @cobbo3

There will be hell when Russia's and Yankee bad manners come to Africa - Opinion - nation.co.ke
http://www.nation.co.ke/oped/Opinion/-Russia-s-and-Yankee-bad-manners-come-to-Africa-/-/440808/2250112/-/5j6fcv/-/index.html