{UAH} The Observer - 2016: How ready is the opposition?
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Members of the opposition
While the push for electoral reform seems to have galvanized the opposition and civil society activists,the outcome remains to be seen.
In the last few months, key opposition figures such as Dr Kizza Besigye (former FDC president), Mugisha Muntu (FDC president), Olara Otunnu (UPC president), Norbert Mao (DP present), and former Assistant Bishop of Kampala Dr Zac Niringiye have been on the move across the country, mobilising people to support and demandelectoral reforms. In an interview on May 2, Mathias Nsubuga, the DP secretary general and Bukoto South MP, said the opposition was focusing its efforts on achieving reforms.
"These reforms will be instrumental in shaping 2016; that is why all our focus is jointly on the reforms," he said.
Nsubuga added that political parties were also looking at strengthening their grassroots structures. Asked about the plan to field a single opposition candidate, Nsubuga said: "It is too early to comment on that with certainty".
Despite agreeing on the need for reforms before elections, opposition leaders appear to be on different pages with regard to the nature of the reforms required.
Speaking during Wednesday's heated"grand citizen's debate" at Hotel Africana,Bishop Niringiye suggested that they should deal with the "politics of elections" first and then legal reforms will follow.
Niringiye explained that even if the laws were to change, the reforms are likely to remain on paper if the politics of the day doesn't change. The countrywide mobilisation tours, he stressed, were meant to culminate into a national citizens' convention to discuss how the 2016 elections should be managed.
"The citizens' convention will also make a plea to President Museveni to retire voluntarily before 2016 such that the country can plan for 2016 without Museveni on the ballot paper," he said.
"Having Yoweri Museveni on a ballot paper is in itself a hindrance to free and fair elections."
Besigye,during the same debate, said appeals for Museveni to retire would not work because he is not willing to relinquish power peacefully and therefore should be forced out. Besigye has consistently argued that it is useless to participate in an election organised and controlled by President Museveni, and Niringiye appears to agree. Nsubuga, however, wants the electoral legal regime to come first.
"First, we have to look at the law. You see, politics is governed by the law; otherwise it will be'jungle politics',"he argued.
"We must refine the electoral laws first and then sanitize the politics."
Nsubuga further said that bad lawsstifle politics. He cited the Public Order and Management Act, 2013. "Because of such laws, as opposition we can't mobilize and strengthen grassroots structures. When you call a meeting, police disperses you with brutal force. We can't organise; that is why we must reform the law first and then politics later," he said.
According to Nsubuga,the opposition team is scheduled to table its proposed electoral reforms in parliament next month. Some of their proposed reforms includereplacing the current Electoral Commission with one that is not appointed by the president.
Uphill task
Bishop Niringiyeinsists that as long as Museveni's name is on the ballot paper in 2016, even the legal electoral reforms won't help. Yet pushing the proposed reforms will be an uphill task for the opposition, which lacks the numbers in parliament.
That means without the support of NRM,which commands an overwhelming majority in parliament, reforms are "mission impossible". Should the opposition fail,Nsubuga said, "We have a plan B, which I will not disclose…"
Francis Mwijukye, the deputy FDC spokesman, said the opposition's plan B is toboycott the 2016 elections. He said it would be illogical for them to participate in a flawed election. In addition to championing electoral reforms, FDC is moving to build grassroots structures.
The party has already drawn a roadmap that will see it hold elections from the village, parish, sub-county to district level. Elections for grassroots structures are expected to culminate into the national delegates' conference that will elect new party leaders.
According to the FDC roadmap, grassroot selections were scheduled for April 30-May 30, while the national delegates' conference is planned for June 24. Mwijukyesaid the exercise didn't kick off as scheduled because they had not mobilisedthe people to explain to themwhere the party is headed.
"We are going to have a NEC meeting next week and see how we shall roll out the exercise," he said.
But a well-placed source told us that FDC doesn't have money to conduct the grassroots elections.
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