{UAH} EBOLA POSES A 33 BILLION HEADACHE.

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Ebola poses $33bn threat to west Africa economy as human cost grows

By Shawn Donnan in Washington

©Getty

Concerns grew over the potential global economic impact of the Ebola outbreak in west Africa after the World Bank warned on Wednesday that the region faced a $32.6bn economic hit if the disease was not contained.

The grim estimate from World Bank economists came ahead of a meeting in Washington on Thursday between the presidents of the three main affected countries – Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone – and the heads of key international institutions. It provided the starkest picture yet of the growing economic cost of an outbreak that has already left at least 3,879 people dead in west Africa and this week saw a nurse in Madrid catch the virus, the first case to originate outside Africa.

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The warning from the World Bank also came as doctors in Texas said a 42-year-old man who had contracted Ebola during a visit to Liberia last month had died in an isolation unit at a Dallas hospital despite being treated with an experimental antiviral drug.

In Spain, Mariano Rajoy, the prime minister, appealed for calm after another nurse who was in contact with Ebola patients at a hospital in Madrid became the sixth person to be held under close medical surveillance there. In a statement to parliament Mr Rajoy urged the public to let the country's health professionals do their work and said Spain had one of the "best health systems in the world".

Meanwhile, the UK announced it is sending 750 military personnel to Sierra Leone to help fight the SPREAD of the disease, as well as a navy aid ship and three helicopters to help reach remote areas. It is also committing to opening extra medical units in the country, with an additional 700 beds.

Anxieties over the widening impact of the outbreak hit shares in airlines, HOTELS and travel companies for a second day on Wednesday. US officials have said they plan to increase HEALTH SCREENINGS of inbound passengers from west Africa and investors are concerned about the potential for a broader impact on travel as people choose to stay at home rather than expose themselves to any risk of infection from fellow travellers.

The World Travel and Tourism Council, which represents airlines, hotels and other travel companies, said reports were emerging from Africa that forward bookings were down by up to 30 per cent in some key destinations.

But the main concern remained over the impact in Africa where cases continue to climb and officials fear the potential fallout for economies trying to establish a new narrative of fast growth and economic transformation.

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According to the World Bank's estimates under a "Low Ebola" scenario, which would see the outbreak contained to those three countries by the end of this year, the impact on gross domestic product would amount to $3.8bn by the end of 2015.

But under a "High Ebola" scenario, under which the outbreak SPREADS to neighbouring countries in west Africa such as Ghana, Nigeria and Senegal, the hit to the region's economy would be $7.4bn this year and a further $25.2bn in 2015, or the equivalent of 3.3 per cent of regional GDP.

"This is an enormous cost, not only for the most affected countries, but for the region as a whole. It has the potential to be deeply destabilising and requires an immediate response," the 71-page report said.

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warned last month that, if uncontained, the outbreak could lead to as many as 1.4m cases of Ebola and about 700,000 deaths by the end of January next year in the three most-affected countries. That, the World Bank economists said, would be equivalent to the number of people who die under normal circumstances in those countries in three or more years and amount to a "catastrophic mortality event that has not been seen on earth since the 1918 influenza epidemic".

Under their "High Ebola" scenario the World Bank economists modelled the impact of a less catastrophic outbreak that would see about 200,000 cases SPREAD across west Africa and 100,000 deaths before the outbreak was extinguished by the end of 2015.

The main impact on the region's economy would come via the labour MARKET as people were either unable to go to work because of the disease or chose to stay at home to avoid infection, the economists wrote. But a wider outbreak would also hit trade in the region as health checks and other barriers slowed commerce and transportation costs rose, they said.

Under the bank's "High Ebola" scenario economic growth in west Africa would tumble from the 6.7 per cent forecast for this year to 4.1 per cent in 2015.

Experts reject fears Ebola could become airborne

Virologists rejected suggestions on Tuesday that Ebola might mutate to become an airborne virus after a Spanish nurse became the first person to contract the virus outside of west Africa.
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In spite of the dire predictions, the International Monetary FUND still believes that Ebola-hit Sierra Leone will be this year and in 2015 one of the world's top 10 fastest-growing economies, expanding at 8-9 per cent.

The bank's economists said in the new report their forecast would justify the world spending billions to contain the outbreak which has SPREAD largely unchecked in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone due to the poor health infrastructure in those countries.

"With swift international action Ebola can be contained and not only thousands of precious lives could be saved but also economic cost for the region could be limited," the World Bank economists wrote. "If the outbreak is not contained the economic costs could run into billions of [DOLLARS] in foregone output."

Viele GruBe

Robukui

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