{UAH} Opposition ought to read writing on the wall: view

http://www.thecitizen.co.tz/News/Opposition-ought-to-read-writing-on-the-wall--view/-/1840340/2467722/-/y6nmsn/-/index.html

Dar es Salaam. When Chadema resolved to organise what it termed as "countrywide demonstrations" in protest against the ongoing sittings of the Constituent Assembly in our nominal political capital, Dodoma, all those who have followed political developments in our country knew that did not augur well.

What followed when Chadema attempted to implement their resolution was chaos in some parts of the country as the police force moved swiftly to stop those demonstrations; and journalists who had gone to cover the events in Dar when Chadema chairman Freeman Mbowe was summoned by the police for questioning, were also targeted.

The latest ugly scenes brought back bitter memories when relations between the police force and the media hit the nadir back in 2012. Journalist David Mwangosi died after being struck with a tear gas canister in the course of covering a Chadema political rally. These events were in a way writing on the wall.

Elections (2015) are around the corner. And in Africa, elections are more often than not a question of survival, an all out or nothing affair.

A contemporary nation-state in Africa, displays some of the most irreconcilable dichotomies inherent on the ground, bearing near schizophrenic. Ours is a continent of immense riches, but its people still wallow in abject poverty. It is a continent of diverse peoples and cultures, in which such dichotomies at times represent fault lines best exploited for some political or economic gains, leaving a trail of destruction and despair in their path.

Tanzania exhibits such dichotomies. On the one hand, it is a country that is touted as having one of the fastest growing economies, even managing to claim a few dollar millionaires, when the majority of its people are among the poorest in the world. There are elections every five years and a president, who has served two consecutive terms in office, leaves. But these elections are organized by an electoral commission which stands accused of not being fair.

Ours is a country where there is a proliferation of media and citizen journalism on the one hand, while on the other, there still remains some archaic media laws in the books, including those inclined to gag the media every time it is perceived as stepping beyond the line; to keep the media on a leash.

This is the case in most of Africa; many of the ruling parties have dismal to outright poor records on fulfilling their promises. These parties tend to offer tenuous claims of a litany of success, but when faced with rising political challenge, the gloves come off.

As the saying goes, coming events forecast their shadows. I will be the last person to be surprised if the ugly scenes we witnessed recently were to happen again in the near future because it is that time when rulers suffer gargantuan headache as how to best survive the clear and ever present political threat.

That said these events also paint another picture. Chadema's resolve to hold countrywide demonstrations to protest against the continuing sittings of the Constituent Assembly (CA) point to the collective stagnation in the political thinking of many in the opposition parties-predictability in their next move.

Let us be honest, the ruling CCM from the very outset of the constitution-making process was bent on ensuring an outcome that would suit its agenda. Despite all the signs, all the writing on the wall that the process was headed towards failure or total collapse, there was no proper exit strategy for the opposition parties. No plan B in case the Warioba Commission draft was to be altered, or perhaps thrown out completely.

Only CCM, it appears, knew what they were doing in this wretched process. It is next to impossible to win in any struggle if one is ignorant of their opponents' stance or their tactics. The opposition parties have countless times lost their political initiatives to CCM, leaving them unsure of how to proceed from there on.

Opposition political parties should observe and learn from CCM, more than just its use of theatre or artistry during political campaigns. They should learn how to anticipate CCM's next move and counter it. The opposition has shown many times that it can be very creative in strengthening its political base. They should put that ingenuity to good use.

It is unlikely that the current cyclic, predictable actions will achieve any different, better outcomes. It is equally unlikely to meet any different response from a paranoid state.

Ocen Nekyon

Democracy is two Wolves and a Lamb voting on what to have for lunch. Liberty is a well-armed Lamb contesting the results.

Benjamin Franklin

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