{UAH} Which way now for Mbabazi’s political career? - News - www.theeastafrican.co.ke

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Which way now for Mbabazi's political career? - News

Uganda's ex-premier Amama Mbabazi was once considered the de facto alternative to President Museveni. FILE PHOTOS | NATION MEDIA GROUP 

In Summary

Kampala advocate and political commentator Nicholas Opio says Mbabazi has three options.

• Tuck his tail between his legs and seek clemency and accommodation within NRM;
• Quit the party and declare his stand;
• Contest against President Museveni for the NRM flag and lose, then quit to implement option two.

In remaining indecisive about the direction his political career should take, Uganda's ex-premier Amama Mbabazi now faces significantly diminished options in a contest against President Museveni, which has seen him nearly knocked him out of politics.

One time considered the de facto alternative to President Yoweri Museveni, Mbabazi's dwindling political fortunes hit rock bottom on Thursday, January 8, when he failed to garner enough votes to retain his membership in the expanded central executive committee, the topmost organ of the ruling National Resistance Movement.  

In contrast, his nemesis, Justice Minister Severino Kahinda Otafiire, who had not even been on the ballot until agitation from the 780-member electoral college, emerged the most popular with 508 votes.

Having earlier lost the battle to block the swearing in of his replacement as NRM secretary-general, Mbabazi's options are now limited, according to analysts.

"In my view, he now has three options," said Kampala advocate and political commentator Nicholas Opio. "He could tuck his tail between his legs and seek clemency and accommodation within NRM; quit the party and declare his stand; or contest against President Museveni for the NRM flag and lose, then quit to implement option two."

Opting to stay within the NRM would require him to renounce all alleged ambitions to the throne and would probably appeal to President Museveni's magnanimity.

While previous fallings out between President Museveni and party bigwigs such as the late Eriya Kategaya and former co-ordinator of intelligence services General David Ssejusa appear to support this view, Mr Mbabazi would have to be prepared for a long wait.

"Declaring his candidature would on the other hand give his supporters confidence and a sense of direction but he should be prepared to face everything that the state has done to those that have taken this path before him," Mr Opio warned, adding the ex-premier would face politically inspired charges and possible imprisonment.

While he has not come out to openly denounce the NRM, and has variously said he has never expressed any intention to contest against President Museveni, Mbabazi has remained ambiguous to his supporters.

Although he could not be directly linked to a petition to block the swearing-in of the new office bearers the NRM leader appointed late December, Mbabazi was a no-show in the elections to the CEC, where President Museveni had put him on the shortlist of eight candidates from which the NEC was to endorse five names.

Since his ouster as the NRM secretary-general on December 15, he has not announced a course of action and his known telephone contact went unanswered when this paper tried to speak to him on January 9.

According to Kinkizi East legislator Chris Baryomunsi, who has had run ins with the ex-premier, Mbabazi still has an opportunity to contest for his Kinkizi West parliamentary seat under the NRM flag but he needs to make his stand clear soon.

"Although his chances are significantly diminished, he can still offer himself within NRM and retain the seat because for now, he does not face a serious opponent in local politics. But he needs to make up his mind because his alleged aspirations to higher office have psychologically conditioned his constituents to believe he is on his way out," said Dr Baryomunsi.

In two previous elections, Mbabazi faced the most serious challenge to his seat when businessman Garuga Musinguzi threw his hat in the ring on the Forum for Democratic Change ticket. But Garuga quit politics to concentrate on his tea business, leaving Mbabazi largely unchallenged at the last polls in 2011.

Dr Baryomunsi said that Mbabazi's indecisiveness is also costing him because it has given President Museveni time to scatter his forces.

"In Nambole [the December 15, 2014 NRM National conference in which President Museveni was given powers to appoint officials to run the party secretariat] the contest was between Mbabazi and pro-Museveni supporters and the results were decisively in President Museveni's favour. His score in votes to the CEC to some degree shows the antipathy he faces," said Dr Baryomunsi.

Subsequent events also show how much Mbabazi's fortunes now depend on President Museveni. In meetings at State House, pro-Mbabazi youth leaders Adama Luzindana, vice NRM youth chair central region and Omodo-Omodo, northern league youth leader, said they had been misled into deserting President Museveni.

Significantly, according to sources who attended the NEC meeting at State House on January 9, it was Omodo-Omodo who floated the idea that all the old guard should be kept out of the CEC.

This was a veiled reference to Mbabazi, former party treasurer Amelia Kyambadde, her deputy Parmindher Singh Katongole and former deputy secretary-general Dorothy Hyuha, whom President Museveni had put on the ballot. Three made it back but not Mbabazi.

The results have raised questions over how committed President Museveni was to Mbabazi's CEC candidature. While sources who attended the meeting said the president tried to convince members that Mbabazi only represented divergent views within the party and that this was not bad thing in a democratic organisation, it did not change Mbabazi's fate.

Analysts like Nicholas Opio are not convinced President Museveni did enough to push Mbabazi's bid. "President Museveni still has absolute control over the NRM and party members. If he really wanted Mbabazi on the CEC, he would have got his way," said Mr Opio.

Which way now for Mbabazi's political career? - News - www.theeastafrican.co.ke
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