{UAH} Pojim/Gook/WBK: Election 2015: Exit poll puts Tories close to majority - BBC News

http://www.bbc.com/news/election-2015-32633099

Election 2015: Exit poll puts Tories close to majority

The Conservatives are set to be the largest party in the Commons but just short of a majority, according to the general election exit poll.

The survey taken at polling stations across the UK suggests the Tories will get 316 MPs to Labour's 239 when all the results have been counted.

It suggests the Lib Dems will get 10 MPs, the SNP 58, Plaid Cymru 4, UKIP 2 and the Greens two.

The exit poll was conducted by NOP/MORI for the BBC, ITV and Sky.

The first election results are due before midnight with the final result on Friday afternoon.

The finishing line needed to form an absolute majority is 326, but because Sinn Fein MPs have not taken up seats and the Speaker does not normally vote, the finishing line has, in practice, been 323.

If the exit poll is accurate, as it was in 2010, David Cameron could be on course to remain prime minister as the head of a minority government without the need for a coalition - although he might have to rely on the support of the DUP or the Lib Dems.

Even if Labour leader Ed Miliband was able to persuade the Lib Dems to join the SNP in backing a Labour government, he would not have the necessary numbers to get his legislative programme through Parliament in a Queen's Speech.

Labour looks set to suffer a hammering in Scotland at the hands of the SNP, with their vote dropping an average of 18%.

But the exit poll suggests it will be an even worse night for the Lib Dems, with the party's vote falling 16% on their 2010 share - worse than the most gloomy predictions before polling day.

Lib Dem election chief Lord Ashdown told the BBC: "If this exit poll is right I will publicly eat my hat."

Labour's deputy leader Harriet Harman also placed a question mark over the exit poll but said that if it was correct "the coalition government's majority has all but been wiped out".

"Do the coalition still have a majority? Do the Tories have the ability to make a majority government? If they don't it wall fall to the leader of the opposition," she told BBC News.

But Conservative minster Michael Gove said: "We haven't had an incumbent government increase its majority like this since 1983 and it would be an unprecedented vote of confidence in David Cameron's leadership."

SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon was also cautious about the exit poll.

She tweeted: "I'd treat the exit poll with HUGE caution. I'm hoping for a good night but I think 58 seats is unlikely!"

Pollsters interviewed 22,000 people in 141 polling locations in 133 constituencies throughout Great Britain.

A YouGov opinion poll of 6,000 people who had voted painted a much brighter picture for Mr Miliband, putting Labour and Tories tied on 34% each, UKIP on 12%, Lib Dems on 10%, the SNP and Plaid Cymru on 5% and Greens on 4%.

The survey was not an exit poll but was compiled by getting back in touch with people who had previously expressed a view to YouGov.

It was much closer to polling during the campaign, with a final poll of polls compiled by the Press Association putting Tories on 276 seats, Labour on 271, Lib Dems on 28, SNP 48, UKIP three and Greens one.

A total of 650 Westminster MPs will be elected, with about 50 million people registered to vote.

There are also more than 9,000 council seats being contested across 279 English local authorities.

Mayors will also be elected in Bedford, Copeland, Leicester, Mansfield, Middlesbrough and Torbay.

Some votes had been cast before Thursday through postal voting, which accounted for 15% of the total electorate at the 2010 general election, when the overall turnout was 65%.

Election 2015: Exit poll puts Tories close to majority - BBC News

http://www.bbc.com/news/election-2015-32633099

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