{UAH} Allan/Billie/Gook/Gwokto/Pojim/WBK: An idiot’s guide to the Tanzanian election - News
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An idiot's guide to the Tanzanian election
Tanzanians queue to cast their votes at a polling station during the General Election on October 25, 2015 in Dar es Salaam. AFP PHOTO | DANIEL HAYDUK
By AFRICAREVIEW Correspondent in Dar es Salaam
Posted Sunday, October 25 2015 at 14:46
Tanzania seems like one of those boring countries with one party in power since independence and destined to rule for another century; so why the fuss?
Well, the ruling party, Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), has been in power since 1977 when it was formed in a merger of the ruling parties in Tanganyika and Zanzibar, but yeah, it's been around and in charge right from the start.
The "fuss", as you call it, is because for the first time ever, there is a real possibility of the CCM candidate, John Pombe Magufuli losing the election to opposition candidate Edward Lowassa.
Haven't they been winning elections with landslides?
Yes, they have in the past, but CCM has been losing support in recent years. Outgoing President Jakaya Kikwete won about 80 per cent of the vote in 2005, but that dropped to 63 per cent in 2010. A united opposition and defections from the ruling party mean this election could go either way.
Wait! Wasn't that Lowassa bloke in CCM and a big wig in the government?
I can see someone has been paying attention! Lowassa was Prime Minister in Kikwete's first government but he was thrown under the bus twice; first over the Richmond corruption scandal when he was forced to resign, and earlier this year when he was passed over for the CCM presidential nomination. So, he threw his expensive toys out of the CCM pram, crawled over to the opposition Ukawa Alliance, and was pacified with its nomination. A handful of other CCM officials, including one in charge of the party's ideology, followed him into the opposition.
Sounds like the opposition didn't have a horse ready to run the races…
Wrong. Wilbroad Slaa, who came second in the last election, and is a towering figure in the Opposition, was a shoo-in for the nomination but a higher public profile and deeper pockets titled the scale in favour of the Lowassa-come-lately.
Slaa must have been happy to have someone else carry the cross then?
To the contrary! He threw his (admittedly less expensive) toys out of the pram, took a quick trip abroad to steam off, refused to campaign for Lowassa on his return, and has made some public statements in favour of Magufuli, although not CCM.
This CCM isn't about to win any popularity contests, is it?
Let's just say that if Magufuli wins, it will be in spite of, and not necessarily because of CCM. A host of corruption scandals over the past decade and frustrations about unemployment, poverty and poor service delivery have convinced many Tanzanians about the need for change.
Even Magufuli has campaigned on a platform of change and has been careful to refer to CCM only sparingly. Still, the old lady of Tanzanian politics is deeply entrenched across all spheres of life and it will take a Herculean effort to uproot it.
What would it take to win?
Tanzania uses a first-past-the-post electoral system, which means that whoever gets more of the 22.7 million votes on offer becomes President. "A presidential candidate shall be declared to have been elected President if he receives the greatest number of all the valid votes cast," says the law. Plain. Simple.
There are eight candidates in the race, including one woman, Anna Elisha Mghwira of the ACT Wazalendo party but boats will sail across the Sahara if any of them comes within touching distance of Magufuli and Lowassa. There are also 265 parliamentary seats up for grabs (CCM had 186 out of 239 seats in the last House)…
You didn't answer my question…
Don't interrupt. The key will be young voters aged 18 to 35 who make up 57 per cent of the total vote bloc. Many of them are first-time voters and it is hard to tell which way they will swing. More than half of all voters also live in just nine high-density regions (out of 30) in the country. These are split finely between the two leading camps, so getting the vote out is going to be key.
Where does Zanzibar fit in all this?
By sitting in the sun looking all pretty with its beautiful beaches and tiny houses creaking under the weight of history. Seriously, though, Zanzibar has its own presidential and parliamentary elections with about half a million voters choosing between six presidential candidates and 54 members of the Zanzibar House of Representatives.
Do we expect any rustling of the palm trees?
You bet! In the last election, in 2010, CCM's Ali Mohammed Shein defeated Seif Sharif Hamad of the Civic United Front by just 3,471 votes. The two men are facing off again and expect an even tighter contest this time round.
Tanzanians have a reputation for being, um, ah, rather laid-back. I am guessing the campaign has been as exciting as watching paint dry?
Well, let's see: six parliamentary candidates died during the campaigns (most due to ill-health, one in a helicopter crash) and the government warned politicians against witchcraft and banned its purveyors after a surge in the killings of albinos whose body parts are reportedly used in making potions to bring luck and prosperity (and one imagines, votes). Doesn't sound boring to me. If anything casts a spell over Tanzanians, it is local football and politics.
Are you going to make puns over such a grave issue?
I see what you just did there. The killing of albinos is a big problem in Tanzania and one of many the new government will inherit, including poor infrastructure, an uncompetitive economy, and an education system in desperate need of urgent reforms.
Whoever wins will need plenty of hard work and maybe even a magic potion to succeed.
You are beyond redemption…
I'll let you know if I find your sense of humour anywhere.
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