{UAH} Sudan, Uganda: The End of a Rivalry | Stratfor

With South Sudan an independent country and Uganda's rebel movements largely defeated, Khartoum and Kampala do not have the same drive that they once did to alienate one another. They no longer share a border, and on the South Sudan issue, they largely prefer the same outcome: containing the spillover of violence or refugees from the South Sudan conflict. Khartoum prefers a weak Juba, one that could not exert control over vital oil and natural gas fields or infrastructure straddling the Sudan-South Sudan border. Kampala would like Juba to be slightly stronger than this, but neither government is in a position to finance a proxy war.

Uganda can help al Bashir as he moves toward improving relations with the West. Improving ties with the African Union is a step forward in this process, and Kampala could be instrumental. Khartoum's push for greater acceptance in Africa and the West is a matter of necessity, particularly as Sudan's traditional support bases in Iran and elsewhere adjust their positions. Kampala also has the trust of Khartoum's opposition — even in northern Sudan — and has offered to mediate if needed after Sudan's Oct. 20 National Dialogue Conference.

Warmer ties do have precedent. The relationship between Khartoum and Kampala has not always been antagonistic. Before the 1980s, Khartoum's grievances were largely contained to southern Sudan, and Kampala was always dealing with internal problems. Once Kampala's interests in South Sudan became clearer, Khartoum and Kampala engaged in an inevitable rivalry over South Sudan, but circumstances have changed. Now the two appear to be working on normalizing relations and possibly even cooperating. The bad blood between Sudan and Uganda could stand in the way of the full resumption of relations under al Bashir and Museveni, but Museveni's official state visit is an important step toward a peaceful understanding. 

https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/sudan-uganda-end-rivalry

Sincerely,

Brian M. Kwesiga