{UAH} As 2016 elections draw near, here are some lessons from the 1996 - Charles Onyango Obbo

I was really surprised to learn that Opposition big wigs, Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) flag bearer Kizza Besigye and Go Forward's Amama Mbabazi had met in the UK to try to forge a joint front against President Museveni in the forthcoming elections.

The talks, mediated by former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, were an attempt to stitch the joint candidate project that had failed in Kampala a few weeks back.

Sure, often it is good when negotiating to bring someone who doesn't have too vested a local interest. And holding the talks in Manchester gives you more quiet, and proofs them against leaks than if they were done in Kampala.

But the timing was horrible. Not in the heat of an election campaign. In fact we need only go 19 years back to 1996, when both Besigye and Mbabazi were still warmly ensconced in Museveni's corner, to know why that was a risky move.

There is a USAID assessment of that 1996 election, if you can get your hands on it, it's a treasure. One thing it noted was that the Museveni campaign fumbled at the start, while Ssemogerere's got off the blocks smoothly.

It has been a feature of nearly all Museveni's campaigns – the start is messy, as it is today. But then usually, after some weeks, it gets it rallies, and whether it uses violence, money, charm, it doesn't matter, it usually finishes strongly. And toward the tape, it can get very lethal. 

The point is that not just in Uganda, but anywhere in the world, election time is the one time you don't want to be seen to be opening doors to foreigners to influence the direction of events. It allows your opponent to stoke up the worst nationalist sentiments and conspiracy theories.

Actually, it's not just politics. We did it in journalism when I was at The Monitor, and the person who pushed this strategy the most was our MD then, and now the Leader of the Opposition in Parliament Wafula Oguttu.

When we started The Monitor the problem was that whenever journalists got into trouble, they would run to some Western embassy, or if they didn't, they were usually given a scholarship or asylum abroad later.

We decided at The Monitor that we do none of those things. We would stay, take the blows, and establish some rules of engagement with the political and judicial establishment.

It meant they had to do a lot more work than if they had accepted external help, but the big picture was always more important. 

http://www.monitor.co.ug/OpEd/OpEdColumnists/CharlesOnyangoObbo/As-2016-elections-draw-near--here-are-some-lessons/-/878504/2941956/-/pdl9cg/-/index.html

Sincerely,

Brian M. Kwesiga