{UAH} Order, stability may give Museveni the edge in Uganda’s elections - Comment

As the presidential election campaigns heat up in Uganda, most analysts are predicting a relatively comfortable win for the incumbent President Yoweri Museveni of the National Resistance Movement (NRM). Nevertheless, the situation can still change between now and February. 

Working in the opposition's favour is a growing sense of fatigue with President Museveni's 30-year long rule. 

Critically, this sense of fatigue appears to be particularly strong among younger voters who cannot remember the pre-Museveni era and are thus less impressed by the President's claims of having helped bring stability to the country.

However, while the opposition still has much to play for, it seems that part of its current strategy — namely, claims that it will call mass demonstrations across the country if Museveni is announced the victor — may actually be playing into the government's hands. The fact is that many Ugandans appear to be put off by the possibility of violence. 

The support for President Museveni is due, at least in part, to the fact that his leadership has brought some socio-economic growth, while it has also been associated with various development projects. 

In addition, Museveni's presidency has been associated with what many refer to as a commercialisation of politics, whereby voters increasingly expect presidential and parliamentary candidates to provide them with direct assistance. 

To this end, Museveni and the NRM clearly enjoy the benefits of incumbency, while the principal opposition candidate, Kizza Besigye of the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), suffers from much more limited funding. 

Interestingly, opposition activists are currently trying to turn this logic on its head. As in, instead of giving out money and other goodies at his rallies, supporters increasingly give Besigye gifts of everything from a few shillings to a new sofa set to help him fund his presidential campaign. 

However, in practice, this new development rests on reciprocity, as the narrative is that Besigye will provide assistance to such supporters once elected. The patronage expected is thus delayed rather than suspended or eliminated. 

At the same time, the pressure on Museveni and NRM to distribute resources continues to mount, as they fight both the official opposition and the growing competition within the party. However, as Michaela Collord from Oxford University recently argued, the costs of such electoral excess will mainly come after the polls in the form of inflation and debt, as was the case in 2011. 

However, development projects and the short-term benefits of patronage are not the only reasons why many Ugandans may choose to vote for Museveni next February. There are also the issues of security and stability. 

On the one hand, Museveni is credited for bringing relatively high levels of stability to the country. On the other hand, many see the incumbent as the only person who can either ensure ongoing stability or trigger chaos. The latter linked to the idea that, if the opposition does manage to win the next election, then Museveni is the one who will decide whether to accept this and go home and herd his cattle, or refuse to hand over power. 

http://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/OpEd/comment/Order-stability-may-give-Museveni-the-edge-in-Uganda-elections-/-/434750/3003004/-/8r26asz/-/index.html

Sincerely,

Brian M. Kwesiga