{UAH} WHO WILL FACILITATE THE KAGAME/NKURUNZIZA TALKS??
WHO WILL FACILITATE THE KAGAME/NKURUNZIZA TALKS??
Burundian are currently in Uganda for the relaunching of the East Africa Community (EAC) initiated dialogue on the Burundi political crisis that was launched in May 2015. Following the failed coup attempt in May 2015, the EAC had assigned Uganda's military dictator Museveni as to chair the the consultations between government and the opposition groups. Since then, Uganda's Minister of Defence has been charing seasonal consultations between the worrying parties thus prompting the situation to escalate toALARMING
proportions that has led to the relaunching of the current talks in Kampala. In attendance is the government delegation that is led by the Minister of Foreign Affairs and the main opposition groups led by among others FNL party president Agathon Rwasa who is also the Deputy Speaker of parliament. Among the observers from Burundi were religious leaders, civil society leaders, women organisations and former heads of state. Among the international observers were members of the diplomatic community accredited to Uganda. The current Chairman of the EAC, former President of Tanzania Jakaya Kikwete was represented by Tanzania's Minister of Foreign Affairs.
The ethnic composition of Burundi is similar to that of their cousins in Rwanda where in both countries, the Tutsi are the minority. From the time of independence in the early 1960s, the minority Tutsi dominated political and economic power in Burundi while in Rwanda the majority Hut us dominated political power. During the post independence era, the oppressed Hutus of Burundi struggled against the oppressive minority Tutsi rule while in Rwanda the minority Tutsi in exile were struggling to regain power from the Hutu. In those struggles the exiled Rwandese Tutsi sought the help of their Tutsi brothers who were in power in Burundi. Similarly, the struggling Hutu of Burundi sought assistance from their Hutu brothers who were in power in Rwanda. The exiled Tutsi of Rwanda took over power in Rwanda in 1994 sending the Hutu into exile and subjects of second class citizenship treatment. In Burundi the first Hutu President was slaughtered by the Tutsi dominated army three months later in 1993 plunging the country into an ethnic civil strife that lasted 10 years.
During the civil war period, the struggling Hutu of Burundi got closer to the equally struggling Hutu of Rwanda who had most recently been ejected from power in Rwanda. After ten years, in 2005 the civil war in Burundi ended through a negotiated settlement that came to be called the Arusha Peace Accord. The accord ensured a power sharing deal between Tutsi and Hutu in the security services, political and public service. Burundi's current President Peter Nkurunziza was elected by the country's parliament as President for five years. In 2010, at the end of his five years Peter Nkurunziza was reelected this time round through adult suffrage as President for another five years that ended in July 2015. One of the major achievements of the negotiated settlement was to put an end to the Tutsi domination and the building of a genuine social cohesion amongst Burundians. While in Burundi ethnic differences are realistically recognised and genuinely handled, in Rwanda the system pretends that there are no ethnic differences and its a taboo to even talk about them. That way, while in Burundi ethnic differences are no longer an issue, in Rwanda its a time bomb that can explode at the slightest moment.
In early 2015, as Peter Nkurunziza's term was about to end, he declared his intentions to seek another five years term. The main opposition parties, civil society groups and some elites protested the move culminating into the April - May street protests. Nkurunziza argued that his first five years did not count since he had simply been elected by parliament and that its only the second term where he was elected by adult suffrage that counted thus he had served only one constitutional term. The constitutional court concurred with Nkurunziza thus declaring him eligible for reelection. As the street protests escalated in the capital Bujumbura, scores of wanainchi from the northern districts of Kayanza and Kabarole bordering with Rwanda started fleeing to Rwanda for refuge. The popular street protests in Bujumbura were undermined by the foiled coup attempt in May 2015 . As the government carried out rounding up of suspected coup plotters, both the civilian and some security personnel fled the country. Rwanda's Paulo Kagame urged Nkurunziza to abandon the so called third term bid thus sparking off bad blood between the two sister countries. Rwanda's propaganda machinery attempted without success to patray an image of an ethnic conflict in Burundi. Also, its argument that its own Hutu rebel FDRL had been sheltered in Bujumbura and sidng with the Hutu dominated government, did not take root.
That is how the EAC heads of state assigned Uganda's military dictator, Museveni to facilitate a dialogue between the the warring parties in Burundi. Museveni travelled to Burundi via Rwanda from where he was joined by Uganda's Ambassador to Rwanda. In Burundi, Museveni urged the stakeholders to form a government of national unity. His main mission was to convince the opposition to take part in the elections so as to give legitimacy to the polls. In order to divert Burundians from the real issue at the time, he urged them to unite and talk less about political power and term limits but to instead concentrate on economic development. He assigned his Minister of Defence to continue with facilitating the dialogue but because of his own worst situation, the task moved at a snail speed. There is no doubt, since Museveni was in a worst situation after removing term limits and now seeking a seventh term, he feared making any miningful decision that would have set a precedent that would later be against his own schemes back home thus has been siding with the NkurunzizaREGIME
over third term.
In the June 2015, amidst tension in the capital Bujumbura, parliamentary elections were held and though boycotted by the main opposition parties, Nkurunziza ruling party CNDD-FDD overwhelmingly won them with 77 out of the 100 elected seats. As the country was preparing for the July presidential election, security forces repulsed an attack by an armed group in the northern region areas of Kabarole and Kayanza bordering with Rwanda. This development further strained relations between the two sister countries. During the April-May foiled coup attempt, a number of leading opposition figures, renegade security officers, civil society and dissident CNDD-FDD dissident fled to Rwanda and were givern VIP sanctuary in Kigali. In the meantime, the government of Burundi went ahead with the Presidential elections in July 2015 amidst tension in the capital, Bujumbura. The voter turn out was 98% in the rest of the country save for the tension infested capital of Bujumbura. Despite the last minute withdrawal from race, seven other Presidential candidates still appeared on the ballot paper. At the close of the polls, CNDD-FDD candidate Peter Nkurunziza won with 69.4% of the votes cast. The leader of the most significant and Hutu opposition party - FNL, Agathon Rwasa came next with 18.99% and 21 parliamentary seats.
FNL's Agathon Rwasa took up his position in parliament where he was later elected the Deputy Speaker by 108 out of 112 members of parliament. He had earlier withdrawn from the electoral process after describing it as a joke. His change of heart by taking up his seat in parliament and more so, being elected to the position of Deputy Speaker of Parliament infuriated the other opposition groups who saw it as a betrayal. On his part, he defended his decision saying that he had opted to join government so as to "play game" within in search for reforms. As leader of the largest opposition Hutu political party, his decision played a big role in diffusing the post election tension. President Nkurunziza went ahead to form government with priority focused on strengthening the post foiled coup attempt. The government took measures to reorganise the security forces targeting ex
-FAB (former Tutsi dominated army) who were replaced by CNDD-FDD loyalist officers in the Special VIP Protection Brigade that helped to foil the May attempted coup. The 11th Armoured Battalion and 21st Parachute Battalions were relocated at short notice with their Commanders reassigned to other units. Some other Units were totally phased out and their ex-FAB personnel dispersed to other units. The reorganisation of the security forces continued with the retirement of others as the discontented opted to flee the country. Among those who fled are the former army who recently declared an armed rebellion that they claim to lead.
Shortly after the elected government set off for business, a spate of assasinations targeting both Hutu and Tutsi civilians and grenade attacks on Police and ArmyINSTALLATIONS
. Though the attacks had an insurgency character, the government repeatedly blamed the attacks on armed criminals. An organisation dubbed National Council for the Restoration of the Arusha Accords and Democracy (CNARED) composed of civilian political leaders convened in the Ethiopian capital Ad is Ababa and resolved to force Nkurunziza out of power by all means including by military means. Reports of Burundi insurgents being trained in their refugee camps inside Rwanda and being infiltrated back into Burundi via Congo came to the surface. Burundi protested and Rwanda vehemently denied. The name of the insurgents and its leadership remained unclear and a subject of speculation. Some circles suggested that it was FNL while others called it Imbogora Burundi ((bring back Burundi). Its only the early December 2015. Clashes in the capital Bujumbura that left over 80 alleged militants killed, that the world took the Burundi problem seriously.
The African Union resolved to send a 5000 peace keeping contingent withFUNDING
from its new found custodian, China. Driven by guilty conscieousness, Rwanda said it would not contribute troops but would offer other forms of assistance. Uganda's Museveni is also not supportive of the deployment if peace keepers for fear that it would set a precedent for his own similar looming situation that may arise out of the February 2016 polls. The government of Burundi has rejected the deployment of peace keepers citing sovereignty. Museveni jumped into reactivating the stalled dialogue for which he is the facilitator. The dilemma was on identifying the waring parties in the ongoing killings for which mediation efforts and peacekeepers could stand in between. In this regard, the 'backers' of the mysterious insurgent group hastly came up with Republican Forces for Burundi (FOREBU) led by among others, Ltcol. Eduardo Nshimirimaana - the pre-May 2015 foiled attempted coup head of the military communication. The group claims to be fighting fortthe protection of the people and upholding the 2006 Arusha Peace Accords. The Burundi goverment delagation at the Kampala talks rejected the involvement of those who were involed in the May 2015 foiled coup attempt but Museveni warned them against setting conditionalities.
Whatever the case, the Kampala Burundi dialogue will not bring about anything positive because the failure to distinguish between the Nkurunziza third term controversy and the Rwanda/Burundi conflict on one hand and the poor choice of the facilitator who has vested interest. No wonder, he has pushed the talks to the EAC secretariat in Arusha, Tanzania. The current crisis in Burundi will not take an ethnic posture as some circles would wish because the level of social cohesion brought about by the end of the genuine resolution of the civil war a decade ago. However, Kagame's imperialistic ambitions of establishing a client regime in Burundi may continue to wreck havoc if afforded the attention it deserves. Instead of focusing on the Nkurunziza 3rd term as the cause of the ongoing killings, the role of Rwanda in training, arming and sending insurgents to Burundi should be the center of focus or else a worst tragedy is in the offing. It happened in eastern DRC when Rwanda's efforts to destablise Congo by aiding the M23 rebels was forcefully halted. With pressure on Rwanda, the armed insurgents will be an internal matter for Burundians and will be resolved the same way the civil war was resolved a decade ago. Moreover, Nkurunziza enjoys overwhelming supprt among ordinary Burundians and because of their history, he enjoys a messaic status. Under the same pressure Rwanda will abandon the Burundi rebel group leaving it to disperse thus ending the externally orchestrated violence inside Burundi. It happened with the opportunistic support for Uganda's PRA rebel group when UK's Foreign Secretary, Claire Short mediated between Kagame and Museveni. If Nkurunziza's 3rd term bid can lead to armed rebellion, what about Museveni's 8th term he amended the constitution in 2005.
INFORMATION IS POWER
The ethnic composition of Burundi is similar to that of their cousins in Rwanda where in both countries, the Tutsi are the minority. From the time of independence in the early 1960s, the minority Tutsi dominated political and economic power in Burundi while in Rwanda the majority Hut us dominated political power. During the post independence era, the oppressed Hutus of Burundi struggled against the oppressive minority Tutsi rule while in Rwanda the minority Tutsi in exile were struggling to regain power from the Hutu. In those struggles the exiled Rwandese Tutsi sought the help of their Tutsi brothers who were in power in Burundi. Similarly, the struggling Hutu of Burundi sought assistance from their Hutu brothers who were in power in Rwanda. The exiled Tutsi of Rwanda took over power in Rwanda in 1994 sending the Hutu into exile and subjects of second class citizenship treatment. In Burundi the first Hutu President was slaughtered by the Tutsi dominated army three months later in 1993 plunging the country into an ethnic civil strife that lasted 10 years.
During the civil war period, the struggling Hutu of Burundi got closer to the equally struggling Hutu of Rwanda who had most recently been ejected from power in Rwanda. After ten years, in 2005 the civil war in Burundi ended through a negotiated settlement that came to be called the Arusha Peace Accord. The accord ensured a power sharing deal between Tutsi and Hutu in the security services, political and public service. Burundi's current President Peter Nkurunziza was elected by the country's parliament as President for five years. In 2010, at the end of his five years Peter Nkurunziza was reelected this time round through adult suffrage as President for another five years that ended in July 2015. One of the major achievements of the negotiated settlement was to put an end to the Tutsi domination and the building of a genuine social cohesion amongst Burundians. While in Burundi ethnic differences are realistically recognised and genuinely handled, in Rwanda the system pretends that there are no ethnic differences and its a taboo to even talk about them. That way, while in Burundi ethnic differences are no longer an issue, in Rwanda its a time bomb that can explode at the slightest moment.
In early 2015, as Peter Nkurunziza's term was about to end, he declared his intentions to seek another five years term. The main opposition parties, civil society groups and some elites protested the move culminating into the April - May street protests. Nkurunziza argued that his first five years did not count since he had simply been elected by parliament and that its only the second term where he was elected by adult suffrage that counted thus he had served only one constitutional term. The constitutional court concurred with Nkurunziza thus declaring him eligible for reelection. As the street protests escalated in the capital Bujumbura, scores of wanainchi from the northern districts of Kayanza and Kabarole bordering with Rwanda started fleeing to Rwanda for refuge. The popular street protests in Bujumbura were undermined by the foiled coup attempt in May 2015 . As the government carried out rounding up of suspected coup plotters, both the civilian and some security personnel fled the country. Rwanda's Paulo Kagame urged Nkurunziza to abandon the so called third term bid thus sparking off bad blood between the two sister countries. Rwanda's propaganda machinery attempted without success to patray an image of an ethnic conflict in Burundi. Also, its argument that its own Hutu rebel FDRL had been sheltered in Bujumbura and sidng with the Hutu dominated government, did not take root.
That is how the EAC heads of state assigned Uganda's military dictator, Museveni to facilitate a dialogue between the the warring parties in Burundi. Museveni travelled to Burundi via Rwanda from where he was joined by Uganda's Ambassador to Rwanda. In Burundi, Museveni urged the stakeholders to form a government of national unity. His main mission was to convince the opposition to take part in the elections so as to give legitimacy to the polls. In order to divert Burundians from the real issue at the time, he urged them to unite and talk less about political power and term limits but to instead concentrate on economic development. He assigned his Minister of Defence to continue with facilitating the dialogue but because of his own worst situation, the task moved at a snail speed. There is no doubt, since Museveni was in a worst situation after removing term limits and now seeking a seventh term, he feared making any miningful decision that would have set a precedent that would later be against his own schemes back home thus has been siding with the NkurunzizaREGIME
In the June 2015, amidst tension in the capital Bujumbura, parliamentary elections were held and though boycotted by the main opposition parties, Nkurunziza ruling party CNDD-FDD overwhelmingly won them with 77 out of the 100 elected seats. As the country was preparing for the July presidential election, security forces repulsed an attack by an armed group in the northern region areas of Kabarole and Kayanza bordering with Rwanda. This development further strained relations between the two sister countries. During the April-May foiled coup attempt, a number of leading opposition figures, renegade security officers, civil society and dissident CNDD-FDD dissident fled to Rwanda and were givern VIP sanctuary in Kigali. In the meantime, the government of Burundi went ahead with the Presidential elections in July 2015 amidst tension in the capital, Bujumbura. The voter turn out was 98% in the rest of the country save for the tension infested capital of Bujumbura. Despite the last minute withdrawal from race, seven other Presidential candidates still appeared on the ballot paper. At the close of the polls, CNDD-FDD candidate Peter Nkurunziza won with 69.4% of the votes cast. The leader of the most significant and Hutu opposition party - FNL, Agathon Rwasa came next with 18.99% and 21 parliamentary seats.
FNL's Agathon Rwasa took up his position in parliament where he was later elected the Deputy Speaker by 108 out of 112 members of parliament. He had earlier withdrawn from the electoral process after describing it as a joke. His change of heart by taking up his seat in parliament and more so, being elected to the position of Deputy Speaker of Parliament infuriated the other opposition groups who saw it as a betrayal. On his part, he defended his decision saying that he had opted to join government so as to "play game" within in search for reforms. As leader of the largest opposition Hutu political party, his decision played a big role in diffusing the post election tension. President Nkurunziza went ahead to form government with priority focused on strengthening the post foiled coup attempt. The government took measures to reorganise the security forces targeting ex
-FAB (former Tutsi dominated army) who were replaced by CNDD-FDD loyalist officers in the Special VIP Protection Brigade that helped to foil the May attempted coup. The 11th Armoured Battalion and 21st Parachute Battalions were relocated at short notice with their Commanders reassigned to other units. Some other Units were totally phased out and their ex-FAB personnel dispersed to other units. The reorganisation of the security forces continued with the retirement of others as the discontented opted to flee the country. Among those who fled are the former army who recently declared an armed rebellion that they claim to lead.
Shortly after the elected government set off for business, a spate of assasinations targeting both Hutu and Tutsi civilians and grenade attacks on Police and ArmyINSTALLATIONS
The African Union resolved to send a 5000 peace keeping contingent withFUNDING
Whatever the case, the Kampala Burundi dialogue will not bring about anything positive because the failure to distinguish between the Nkurunziza third term controversy and the Rwanda/Burundi conflict on one hand and the poor choice of the facilitator who has vested interest. No wonder, he has pushed the talks to the EAC secretariat in Arusha, Tanzania. The current crisis in Burundi will not take an ethnic posture as some circles would wish because the level of social cohesion brought about by the end of the genuine resolution of the civil war a decade ago. However, Kagame's imperialistic ambitions of establishing a client regime in Burundi may continue to wreck havoc if afforded the attention it deserves. Instead of focusing on the Nkurunziza 3rd term as the cause of the ongoing killings, the role of Rwanda in training, arming and sending insurgents to Burundi should be the center of focus or else a worst tragedy is in the offing. It happened in eastern DRC when Rwanda's efforts to destablise Congo by aiding the M23 rebels was forcefully halted. With pressure on Rwanda, the armed insurgents will be an internal matter for Burundians and will be resolved the same way the civil war was resolved a decade ago. Moreover, Nkurunziza enjoys overwhelming supprt among ordinary Burundians and because of their history, he enjoys a messaic status. Under the same pressure Rwanda will abandon the Burundi rebel group leaving it to disperse thus ending the externally orchestrated violence inside Burundi. It happened with the opportunistic support for Uganda's PRA rebel group when UK's Foreign Secretary, Claire Short mediated between Kagame and Museveni. If Nkurunziza's 3rd term bid can lead to armed rebellion, what about Museveni's 8th term he amended the constitution in 2005.
INFORMATION IS POWER
Viele GruBe
Robukui
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