{UAH} Allan/Pojim/WBK: Museveni probes Nsereko votes
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Museveni probes Nsereko votes
Video evidence cited as president wonders how Nsereko could get so many votes
Surprised by Muhammad Nsereko's performance at Thursday's election of the deputy speaker, President Museveni is demanding an explanation from his party leaders in Parliament.
The Kampala Central MP polled 115 votes against the eventual winner Jacob Oulanyah's 300 votes, a performance which sent shock waves to the ruling NRM party leadership. In fact, some Nsereko-supporting MPs jumped for joy when his vote tally was read.
With a commanding majority of 302 MPs and a sizable number of the 59 independents leaning to his party, Museveni did not expect Nsereko to command nearly 30 percent support in Parliament. At worst, with many critical issues to be decided over the next five years, Museveni is more worried about the future rather than the deputy speaker election now in the past.
"He [Museveni] didn't expect it; he is wondering how it came about because he thought that [Nsereko] would get not more than 40 votes," a senior party leader was on Friday overheard telling colleagues at Parliament.
VIDEO FOOTAGE
Most surprising to Museveni is that at the May 15 caucus meeting when he made concessions to MPs in regard to their tax exemption on top of agreeing to give them a token of Shs 5m each, he had 362 MPs in attendance. That number, in addition to the 10 army representatives would give Oulanyah at least 372 votes.
The question on the heads of NRM leaders is whether the 62 MPs fleeced the president. But the number could be bigger because a review of the video footage of the voting exercise shows that some of the 300 votes that Oulanyah garnered were not from NRM and NRM-leaning independents.
Because the ballot paper had two names, it was easy to analyse the MPs' choices. If the hand moved to the top of the ballot paper, they would tell that it is a vote for Nsereko because Oulanyah's name was at the bottom.
The review of the footage suggests that apart from one, all the UPC MPs voted for Museveni's choice as did a DP MP from Buganda and an FDC MP who holds a senior leadership position in the party. According to NRM's expert video analysis, one of the army MPs is now firmly suspected to have voted for Nsereko.
Before the voting, Kasilo MP Elijah Okupa had raised fears about the heavy presence of cameras near the voting areas. Okupa demanded a secure booth so that MPs would cast their secret ballot in total secrecy.
And although speaker Rebecca Kadaga devised means that would enhance the MPs' secrecy during the voting, some cameras still allowed the analysts to arrive at credible conclusions.
WORK TO DO
Addressing the MPs after Oulanyah's victory, Museveni confirmed that his presence was to ensure that the decision taken by the ruling party organs to maintain the status quo at Parliament was respected. But the party is now fearful that it will most likely get more voices of dissent within its Parliamentary ranks if it doesn't move fast and handle the MPs.
"I think there is some little ideological work that has to be done with some members. The few members who disagreed with the party position need to be engaged with a view of making them to follow the NRM ideological line," said David Bahati, the outgoing state minister for Planning.
In a recent interview with The Observer, NRM secretary general Justine Kasule Lumumba had warned that the party would take disciplinary action against any MPs departing from the party position during the vote for deputy speaker. (See NRM seeks to punish MPs over Oulanyah, The Observer, May 16).
The fear is that if members get defiant in the first year, then they will be done unruly and not much critical business will have been by the end of the five years. Government chief whip Ruth Nankabirwa said in a Friday interview at Parliament that Iganga Municipality MP Peter Mugema may face disciplinary action.
"He could be called to explain why he went against the decision of CEC [Central Executive Committee]," Nankabirwa said.
Mugema, an NRM MP, nominated Nsereko to challenge Oulanyah, paying him a most eloquent and impassioned tribute. Museveni looked bemused as Mugema stepped up to nominate Nsereko and from the way the MP spoke as he marketed his candidate, he seemed unbothered about the feelings of his party boss.
DOOM?
Mugema could not be reached at the weekend but in a TV interview last week, he appeared not to have any regrets. He said even Museveni himself had previously campaigned for independents against the official party candidates.
Kira Municipality MP Ssemujju Ibrahim Nganda told us on Friday that Nsereko's performance in Museveni's presence showed that Museveni could be losing control over the young Turks in his party.
"Museveni's presence there [as we voted] is a sign that he is losing control and trust over his troops because the moment a parent gets to the extent of following a child he has sent to the market to buy something, it means that he has lost trust in that child," Ssemujju said.
"That is how Napoleon Bonaparte collapsed. He opened too many fronts and had to be physically there, and this is what Museveni has started doing; he is losing control."
Ssemujju said that to keep the party cohesive, Museveni has to maintain a balance between the young and older generation. But some political pundits see the president as not having the trust of younger people without recourse to financial support.
"About 24 million Ugandans were born after Museveni had captured power and some of them are the people he is dealing with today as MPs but he can't trust them because he doesn't know what they will do next. That is why he had to get out of his way to fight Nsereko," Ssemujju said.
Winfred Kiiza, the Kasese Woman MP, argues that Nsereko's show was a good lesson for Museveni.
"Museveni should never think that all men will be under his armpit… he had started thinking that when he sneezes, everybody should catch a cold but he was disproved," Kiiza said.
The second lesson for Museveni, according to Kiiza, was the show that not everyone in NRM is ready to be gagged.
"Many at some point will want to be set free and act according to their conscience," she said.
But Nankabirwa thinks the MPs could have been misled by the "individual merit hangover."
"Some think they are still following individual merit because the party didn't put in much to support their election, they feel their election was based on their individual credentials," Nankabirwa said.
The individual merit hangover is one issue that former Bunyole East MP Emmanuel Dombo says the party leadership should deal with to minimize dissent within the ruling party's Parliamentary caucus.
sadabkk@observer.ug
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