{UAH} Rwabwogo attack rekindles Museveni succession debate

Rwabwogo attack rekindles Museveni succession debate

• March 3, 2017
• Written by Baker Batte Lule

With President Museveni's son-in-law Odrek Rwabwogo attacking unnamed 'strongmen', and a presidential aide accusing him of causing confusion, tongues are wagging about succession politics. BAKER BATTE LULE writes:

It came as a surprise when Odrek Rwabwogo wrote a New Vision article that read like a hard-hitting criticism of President Museveni, who also happens to be his father-in-law.

Rwabwogo's opinion on February 13 was invitingly titled: "Are strongmen a hindrance or facilitator to institutional growth, successful political transition?"

Inviting because the average reader wanted to know what Rwabwogo had to say about a group where Museveni is among the leaders. Anyone who expected Rwabwogo to articulate an ideological defence of strongman politics was surprised. Yet there would be more surprise two weeks later, when one of Museveni's private secretaries wrote in Daily Monitor responding to ideologue Rwabwogo. 

To political observers, both Rwabwogo's missive and David Mafabi's rebuttal have lent modest credence to rumours about emerging camps of influence regarding Museveni succession politics.

"It can't happen that a private secretary to the president, and of all people Mafabi, can write in a newspaper attacking one of Museveni's inner family members," one political analyst said last week.

"I'm sure before he wrote that article, it was discussed; could be with even Museveni himself. What this shows is that there is a real [contestation] going on in Museveni's palace." 

NRM's sole candidate Yoweri Museveni for the 2016 election. His son-in-law Odrek Rwabwogo is critical of strongman leaders

DIISI POWER

Answering the question in the title of his New Vision article, Rwabwogo made it clear he believes that strongmen are a problem. He compared today's strongmen to colonial-era Diisi (DC for district commissioners), who wielded so much power they ended up as obstacles to progress.

To capture the tone of Rwabwogo's eloquently-argued article, we reproduce a few excerpts:

"Ironically, these strongmen too have fallen prey to the Diisi disease of holding too many things in one hand. While not treating natives as children as the colonial Diisi used to do, our strongmen tend to have a large appetite for weighing in on every issue small and big before it can be resolved.

"They have exclusivity to rare bursts of wisdom or so their handlers say. They act as if they are infallible and all-knowing; they have become fossilized and institutionalized in such manner that constitutions have to be adjusted for them, not adjusting to the demands of the law; they issue directives, [dole] out jobs and cash and paralyze reasoning and frustrate inspired actions from followers, making those they lead heavily dependent."  

Of course it could be all coincidence but a Ugandan reading the above was always going to remember that Museveni had the Constitution amended in 2005 to remove presidential term limits. And there could be another constitutional amendment to remove presidential age limits – so that Museveni can run for president in 2021.

In his article, Rwabwogo also contrasts what is happening in Uganda with Singapore's transformation under iron-fisted Lee Kuan Yew.

"Unlike Singapore, Uganda (1986), Rwanda (1994) and Ethiopia (1991) perhaps provide a good case study of how strongmen in various ways first grew, then progressively retarded, and in some cases replaced and eventually became the very institutions they meant to build.

"And what's more, people support them because of the fear of the unknown, complicating further the process of political transition.

"This is why there is need to force internal party democracy in order to carry out the stalled but much-needed second-generational reforms in the economy and governance, if we have to increase the rate of social change." 

MUSEVENI AIDE RESPONDS

In Daily Monitor of February 24, David Mafabi, a private secretary for political affairs in State House, titled his response to Rwabwogo, "Of ideology experts and ideological confusion".

In loftily dismissive diction, Mafabi accuses Rwabwogo of failing to point out specific flaws in Museveni's leadership. He calls Rwabwogo's discussion of strongmen "rather contrived and troubled".

And he rejects suggestions that strongmen stifle internal democracy in their ruling parties:

"There is certainly more than enough internal democracy in the NRM… There is only one area where President Yoweri Museveni does not brook too much discussion and debate. This is in the area of national defense and security. And, that is as should be. In other areas and sectors, the discussions, consultations, retreats, are endless – in the search for a consensus, for getting everybody on board."  

SUCCESSION TALK

On the face of it, this could well be simple banter between an NRM ideological zealot and a zealous presidential private secretary. But it has promptly fed into speculation about opinion in the first family on political transition.

Although the exact points of departure and convergence remain unclear, one theory is that First Lady Janet Museveni has strong views that do not necessarily rhyme with the president's. Other significant members of the first family are, the theory goes, aligned with either patriarch or matriarch.

"All the girls and their husbands belong to Janet's camp and it's not surprising that Rwabwogo is attacking Museveni," said one knowledgeable political analyst.

Rwabwogo is husband to Patience, one of Museveni's three daughters. First son Muhoozi Kainerugaba reportedly shares his father's opinion on key issues – although his recent removal as head of the Special Forces Command left some observers confused.

So, what are we supposed to read between the Rwabwogo-Mafabi lines?

Nothing much – according to Mafabi. Speaking to The Observer on Wednesday, Mafabi said by replying to Rwabwogo's articles, he was doing his routine work.

"I always write, especially when I'm convinced that that matter warrants a response," Mafabi said by phone."How would I keep quiet when someone says that we have no democracy or we have a strongman in Uganda?"

It's not lost on Mafabi how touchy Museveni is about his family members.

He said: "I really respect very much the relationship the president has with his relatives, but the issues being discussed are political and in the public domain; so, we will have to respond irrespective of who is making them."

But for Forum for Democratic Change president Mugisha Muntu, Rwabwogo's views may reflect the many "internal contradictions in the Movement" with different groups trying to position themselves as heirs apparent.

"One thing that is clear is that the winds of change are gaining momentum and it is not lost on those who are within the regime itself," Maj Gen Muntu told The Observer last weekend.

He, however, urged the dissenting groups to come out and challenge President Museveni more openly. What remains unclear is how far Rwabwogo can push his call for reform from within NRM. Many previous reformists-from-within have either caved in or been forced out.

Efforts to discuss this with Rwabwogo were futile as he could not be reached on his known mobile phone numbers. According to Muntu, Rwabwogo could face the same tough treatment meted out to Museveni's political critics in the past.

"As long as Museveni still wants to maintain his grip on power, whoever threatens him will be destabilized from becoming stronger."

Rwabwogo has already felt Museveni's strongman power. In 2015, he tried to stand against Gen Matayo Kyaligonza for NRM vice chairman for Western Uganda; but Museveni persuaded the NRM Central Executive Committee to block his candidacy.

Asked for his reading of the Rwabwogo missive, Makerere University law professor and political activist John Jean Barya suggested it could be about testing the succession waters.

"I think within the regime, and particularly the family, there are some struggles as to how succession should unfold, and therefore this is one way of testing the waters," Barya said.

He added that Rwabwogo's one-off will soon fizzle out because it is not a debate within the party.

"NRM does not act as a functional organization; it is only used as and when the president feels it should be used for formal purposes," Barya said, adding: "It is obvious Museveni cannot be threatened by the likes of Rwabwogo." 

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Gwokto La'Kitgum

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"Even a small dog can piss on a tall building" Jim Hightower

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