{UAH} Uganda sitting on time bomb, could slide into crisis, Donors concerned-Report

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Home  Politics  Uganda sitting on time bomb, could slide into crisis, Donors concerned-Report

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Uganda sitting on time bomb, could slide into crisis, Donors concerned-Report

November 21, 2017

By Newz Post reporter

A new report by Crisis Group reveals Uganda risks sliding into a political crisis that could eventually threaten the country's hard-won stability. The report goes to list the pointers including: rising crime, youth frustration, collapsing economy, public sector crisis land disputes and lack of clear successor for president Museveni.

The report says there is already gradual fraying of order, security and governance discontent growing, particularly among youth, against what many Ugandans see as perpetual rule by President Museveni and his NRM government.
Below we bring you issues raised in the report.
Among other swathes of society, expectations regarding a potential succession also run high. Many Ugandans, particularly from marginalised regions, project their hopes to redress historic injustices and overcome underdevelopment onto a post-Museveni era.

The combination of marginalised groups' expectations, potential intra-elite jockeying for spoils and the absence of a clear succession roadmap, means that the incumbent's unexpected death potentially could prompt violence.
Fuelling these concerns is the lack of an obvious successor. The president has not groomed an heir – at least not openly. Nor does his family, which likely will seek to control succession politics, appear to be united. Many see Museveni's son, Muhoozi Kainerugaba, and wife, Janet, as the most likely contenders. Muhoozi has consistently denied eying the presidency.
His mother, Janet Museveni –current cabinet minister – apparently has not ruled the presidency out. She has crafted a powerful network of allies and a reputation as a savvy political operator. Yet neither the first lady nor her son enjoys much popular appeal or establishment support.

The public appears to have little confidence that Museveni's departure will be followed by a constitutional transfer of power. Many expect that groups left out of power will confront the government.
In response, the military might step in, most likely in support of the NRM establishment. How the police and army rank-and-file would react to a contested transition is unclear.
Although the president and ruling party enjoy a firm grip over the police top command, lower ranks suffer poor pay and living conditions, which has fuelled divisions and encouraged corruption.

Youth Frustration

Younger voters who tend to be most affected by economic decline are growing more active and gaining political significance. Many express themselves freely on social media, particularly regarding the age-limit bill, despite crackdowns on government critics and shrinking political space.
This evolution helped bring about the landslide election of Bobi Wine. His candidacy resonated with young and low-income slum dwellers who voted in large numbers. Wine's ability to mobilise hitherto neglected social groups should not be underestimated.

Economy in Decline
Annual economic growth, which ranged between 6 and 10 per cent during the boom years of 2000-2011, declined to an estimated 4.6 per cent in 2017.
It is likely to remain relatively low due to declining global demand for commodities (which make up the bulk of Uganda's exports), instability in South Sudan, formerly a major Ugandan export market.The financial sector has experienced a particularly severe decline. This was illustrated by the 2016 fall of Crane Bank.
The young suffer disproportionately from un- or under-employment. In major towns and cities, many can only find transient work in the informal economy, as boda boda, drivers, guards, hawkers or other forms of casual labour. Likewise, many young people lack access to land or social services.
With the rising cost of living, frustrated youth are easy prey for criminal gangs and ripe for political mobilisation

Public Sector Crisis
The public sector, undermined by decades of nepotism and corruption, is unable to meet rising demand for more and better service delivery.
Acknowledging the problem in July 2016, in the wake of his election, the president committed his new term to "Hakuna mchezo!" ("No play"), vowing to stamp out corruption and putting forward a twenty-point plan for national development.

But piecemeal anti-corruption reforms largely have scapegoated junior players in a wider system of graft. Operation Wealth Creation, an army-led agricultural development scheme, which aimed to improve farm productivity, has not lived up to expectations.
Key infrastructure projects have progressed slowly. This includes the Standard Gauge Railway, as well as construction of a pipeline and refinery to service Uganda's new oil discoveries. The government still hopes major oil production can begin in 2020, but industry analysts see this as unrealistic.

Rising Crime
The combination of corrupt, politicised police plus rising unemployment and deteriorating local governance, has contributed to mounting crime.
In Kampala, youth gangs at times allegedly connive with police officials. Between May and August 2017 at least twenty women were raped and murdered on the outskirts of Kampala and Entebbe, sparking public panic.

In Teso and Kitgum districts, police implicated local officials in a spate of armed robberies and murder in late 2016; within the greater Masaka region, bands of thugs raided villages at night during the first half of 2017. Scores were arrested.

In recent years, armed groups have attacked police stations, stealing guns, freeing detainees, and leaving several police officers dead. In Sebei, Kapchorwa district, a purported rebel group attacked a string of police stations during the 2016 electoral campaign until its alleged ring-leader was arrested.
There also has been a rise in high-profile assassinations. The best-known victim was the powerful Assistant Inspector General of Police, Felix Kaweesi, killed in March 2017.
Two years earlier, Senior State Prosecutor Joan Kagezi, working on the case of the 2010 Kampala terrorist bombing was killed. A dozen Muslim clerics have also been killed by apparent hitmen over the past three years. Motives remain unclear.

Land Disputes
Land disputes lie behind much community-level violence. A dysfunctional system of local governance and law, coupled with ambiguities associated with customary ownership, contribute to this.
In some regions, the erosion of the local council system coupled with popular mistrust of police and politicians, has contributed to renewed demand for mediation and dispute resolution by elders and other traditional leaders. Elders know the historical boundaries of family and community lands, enjoy authority in their clans and tend to possess a reputation for greater integrity than officials and politicians. Elders can also themselves be vulnerable to corruption and political influence.
Access to Ugandan courts is costly, legal processes are time consuming and there is little confidence in their integrity. Consequently, many land conflicts remain unresolved, giving rise to tension and, in some cases, violence. The pervasive view is that those with money and political influence usually prevail.

Proposed legal reforms also provoke suspicion, including a recent constitutional amendment (the Land Reform Bill) to ease the acquisition of private land for development and infrastructure projects, which has been put on hold for now.
Examples abound of how locals distrust the government's intentions. In northern Uganda, communities in the Acholi and West Nile regions are sceptical of the government's acquisition of communal land to house the huge influx of South Sudanese refugees since 2013, and doubt that it ever will be returned.
A conflict over the boundary between Adjumani and Amuru districts in Apaa, that pits the Acholi against the Madi community, illustrates how tensions over district borders can escalate.

Halting the Slide
The authors of the report however reveal, Uganda is not at risk of violence on the scale of the civil conflicts in the 1980s or the war with the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) in the 1990s and 2000s.
But deterioration in governance and the state's increasingly corrupt and authoritarian character mean politics likely will become more polarised and repressive, which could create conditions for future civil strife. Political and administrative reforms are necessary to prevent this slide.

International partners and donors, many of whom have contributed huge sums to Uganda's development, rightly are concerned about the country's direction.

That Uganda is an important geopolitical ally, particularly in Somalia where for many years it has contributed troops to the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), should not prevent them from engaging critically with the government. They also should take steps to minimise the regime's use of foreign-funded development projects for patronage purposes. Donors should urge the government to enact further reform in the following areas:

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