{UAH} Museveni’s Empty Victory: A Post Mortem of the Age Limit battle in parliament
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By Norbert Mao
So it has been done. The much anticipated vote on whether or not to lift the presidential age limit was carried by Museveni. The bill now awaits the president's assent. Thereafter it will be gazetted and it will take effect as the law of the land.For a bill of such significance the debate sometimes degenerated into primitive horse-trading. It was transactional politics at its crudest. During one of the NRM caucus meetings a member of parliament stood up and told the president not to waste time lecturing them on ideologies and why he needs more time to take Uganda to a middle income status. "Mr. President, there is no need for us to spend time talking about ideology. We know this is your thing. Please give each of us some One Billion shillings and we give you your thing".
The parliamentarians who supported the amendment voted in defiance of the broad majority of Ugandans from all across the section. This in itself renders the bill illegitimate. An illegitimate process cannot produce a legitimate outcome.
The victory in parliament has been achieved at excessive cost. So costly that it has reached the point of outweighing or negating the anticipated benefits or advantages. It is a Pyrrhic victory.
Pyrrhic victory is named after king Pyrrhus of Epirus, whose army met with disaster when he suffered irreplaceable casualties in three battles against the Roman army. I will let the noted historian and biographer tell us what happened through a quote from his book "Life of Pyrrhus.
"The armies separated; and, it is said, Pyrrhus replied to one that gave him joy of his victory that one other such victory would utterly undo him. For he had lost a great part of the forces he brought with him, and almost all his particular friends and principal commanders; there were no others there to make recruits, and he found the confederates in Italy backward. On the other hand, as from a fountain continually flowing out of the city, the Roman camp was quickly and plentifully filled up with fresh men, not at all abating in courage for the loss they sustained, but even from their very anger gaining new force and resolution to go on with the war."
After the disputed 2016 elections, Museveni announced that he would pursue political dialogue with his opponents. Expectations were high that an active search for a new consensus would ensue. The Elders Forum of Uganda got busy reaching out to a cross section of leaders across the political divide. Even international partners, notably in Sweden, made guarded statements that they were setting the stage for a national dialogue process.
The question now remains, where do we go from here? First, it is now clear that by using military force to intimidate the parliamentarians Museveni no longer holds a higher moral ground that his predecessors. He is now the moral equivalent of the regimes he often bashes. This one bill has unmasked him. It has left him stark naked. The passage of the bill may have given Museveni the initiative and head-start for the next election but in the process it has also demonstrated that he is a prisoner of his ambition to rule for life.
Second, given the unlawful nature of the procedure adopted and the misguided and unconstitutional nature of the law, a legal challenge is inevitable. The constitutional court will definitely receive petitions challenging the legality of the law both on procedural and substantive ground.
Third, the bill is the last nail in the coffin of any hope for a national dialogue. The lifting of the age limit is the climax of a radical shift from a broad based system of government to an authoritarian one leaning heavily on patronage and military power. No credible National Dialogue that would enhance relations between the opposition and government, and thus ensure a peaceful transition to a post-Museveni era is now possible. Identity politics, pay-as-you-go politics and tribal polarization is going to increase.
Finally, given Uganda's demographics, new and younger political actors and youth protest movements like the jobless brotherhood and poor youth will become more prevalent, active and aggressive. This new wave if merged with a united front of opposition parties will define a new path in Uganda's politics.
-- So it has been done. The much anticipated vote on whether or not to lift the presidential age limit was carried by Museveni. The bill now awaits the president's assent. Thereafter it will be gazetted and it will take effect as the law of the land.For a bill of such significance the debate sometimes degenerated into primitive horse-trading. It was transactional politics at its crudest. During one of the NRM caucus meetings a member of parliament stood up and told the president not to waste time lecturing them on ideologies and why he needs more time to take Uganda to a middle income status. "Mr. President, there is no need for us to spend time talking about ideology. We know this is your thing. Please give each of us some One Billion shillings and we give you your thing".
The parliamentarians who supported the amendment voted in defiance of the broad majority of Ugandans from all across the section. This in itself renders the bill illegitimate. An illegitimate process cannot produce a legitimate outcome.
The victory in parliament has been achieved at excessive cost. So costly that it has reached the point of outweighing or negating the anticipated benefits or advantages. It is a Pyrrhic victory.
Pyrrhic victory is named after king Pyrrhus of Epirus, whose army met with disaster when he suffered irreplaceable casualties in three battles against the Roman army. I will let the noted historian and biographer tell us what happened through a quote from his book "Life of Pyrrhus.
"The armies separated; and, it is said, Pyrrhus replied to one that gave him joy of his victory that one other such victory would utterly undo him. For he had lost a great part of the forces he brought with him, and almost all his particular friends and principal commanders; there were no others there to make recruits, and he found the confederates in Italy backward. On the other hand, as from a fountain continually flowing out of the city, the Roman camp was quickly and plentifully filled up with fresh men, not at all abating in courage for the loss they sustained, but even from their very anger gaining new force and resolution to go on with the war."
After the disputed 2016 elections, Museveni announced that he would pursue political dialogue with his opponents. Expectations were high that an active search for a new consensus would ensue. The Elders Forum of Uganda got busy reaching out to a cross section of leaders across the political divide. Even international partners, notably in Sweden, made guarded statements that they were setting the stage for a national dialogue process.
The question now remains, where do we go from here? First, it is now clear that by using military force to intimidate the parliamentarians Museveni no longer holds a higher moral ground that his predecessors. He is now the moral equivalent of the regimes he often bashes. This one bill has unmasked him. It has left him stark naked. The passage of the bill may have given Museveni the initiative and head-start for the next election but in the process it has also demonstrated that he is a prisoner of his ambition to rule for life.
Second, given the unlawful nature of the procedure adopted and the misguided and unconstitutional nature of the law, a legal challenge is inevitable. The constitutional court will definitely receive petitions challenging the legality of the law both on procedural and substantive ground.
Third, the bill is the last nail in the coffin of any hope for a national dialogue. The lifting of the age limit is the climax of a radical shift from a broad based system of government to an authoritarian one leaning heavily on patronage and military power. No credible National Dialogue that would enhance relations between the opposition and government, and thus ensure a peaceful transition to a post-Museveni era is now possible. Identity politics, pay-as-you-go politics and tribal polarization is going to increase.
Finally, given Uganda's demographics, new and younger political actors and youth protest movements like the jobless brotherhood and poor youth will become more prevalent, active and aggressive. This new wave if merged with a united front of opposition parties will define a new path in Uganda's politics.
--
Allaah gives the best to those who leave the choice to Him."And if Allah touches you with harm, none can remove it but He, and if He touches you with good, then He is Able to do all things." (6:17)
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