{UAH} Did Anywar dance too close to the light?
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7:55 AM |
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Particularly, this week's resignation (or stepping aside) of Kitgum Woman MP, Beatrice Anywar, from the shadow cabinet, and the reported discomfiture of two other leading opposition MPs – Abdu Katuntu and Geoffrey Ekanya – will come as a shocker to opposition supporters, but it is nothing new.
In fact, the events leading to it have followed an old script: first the rumours that something is cooking, then several photo opportunities with the president, then interesting media reports quoting the 'candidates' either rationalising the idea of a strategic relationship with the ruling party or unease with aspects of opposition leadership, then the denial that they are quitting, then the admission that yes, they have been approached but all will depend on their response (quite obvious) and not the flat NO you would have expected of an opposition stalwart, and finally a lame excuse to throw in the towel while remaining on the fence.
In her resignation letter, Anywar claimed that she was uncomfortable working with people who circulate "baseless rumours" about her. We might not say for sure that Anywar has jumped ship as, like all of us, she deserves the benefit of the doubt.
But many will recall that this is nearly the same script followed by former Rubaga North MP Beti Kamya, former Mbale Municipality MP Wilfred Kajeke, Maracha MP Alex Onzima and former DP stalwart Maria Mutagamba, to name a few, on their journey of rediscovery, and into political wilderness.
In the not-too-distant future, Anywar's position will come out clearly because as they say, there are no free lunches. If indeed she has been facilitated by the ruling party to jump ship as the rumours claim, she will be required (by he who pays the piper) to come out in black and white sooner or later so that the real political benefits of her 'quitting' – that is to dent the opposition – can be seen.
Alternatively, she may be allowed to become a lame-duck opposition figure, simply to serve out her term, like was the case with Onzima and Kamya, and thereafter be brought into the fold (again like Onzima and Mutagamba). Or she may be left to drift into political irrelevancy (like Kamya), or into oblivion (like Kajeke).
Ugandans from across the political spectrum will, therefore, be watching her every step to confirm their fears and suspicions that once again, a promising political icon has danced too close to the light and, like the legendary moth, gotten herself burnt.
Be that as it may, these developments should not be seen in isolation; rather they should be looked at in the wider context of the 2016 elections and the emergence of opposition leader Nathan Nandala Mafabi, not just as a front runner to replace Kizza Besigye as leader of FDC, but also as the bookers' favourite to challenge the ageing Museveni.
Just shy of 70 years, the sexagenarian Museveni is gunning for a seventh presidential term come 2016, the baggage of his misrule like corruption, patronage and the total collapse of production (industrial and agricultural) notwithstanding.
Yet for the first time, in Nandala Mafabi, he will likely be faced with a formidable opponent who does not fit in any of the footnotes on his regular script: no military background, so cannot be accused of having exhibited cowardice at war; not a convert from NRM, so cannot be said to share responsibility for some of the ills of his regime or be accused of betrayal; and he is not from northern Uganda, so cannot be labelled part of the killers Museveni went to the Luwero bush to liberate Ugandans from.
Instead, Nandala Mafabi has, through his turnaround of Bugisu Cooperative Union and his tenure as chairperson of Parliament's Public Accounts Committee and member of committee on economy, demonstrated that he understands the economics of production and poverty eradication, perhaps far better than Museveni, thereby debunking the president's myth as the guarantor of the country's economic future.
He is also a ruthless fighter against corruption and has therefore exposed the president's inadequacy and/or unwillingness to fight the cancer that Ugandans across the political spectrum agree is the country's biggest challenge. His youthfulness projects the future while the ageing Museveni reflects the past that has little resonance with over 60% of the population, most of them born during NRM's long reign.
He demonstrated courage, resilience and leadership when he successfully mobilized peasants to resist the regime's attempt to violently rig elections in Sironko district and in the process nearly all local and national positions in the district were won by the opposition. All this has given him national appeal, which he has been riding on by visiting several parts of the country.
President Museveni is known to fight tomorrow's battles today. In the coming months, therefore, the establishment will pull all the stops to try and discredit Nandala. His controversial suspension as chairman of BCU and the issuing of the political probe report claiming he caused losses running in billions was therefore only the beginning.
By fomenting disquiet among opposition MPs, especially among those who have been entertaining presidential ambitions too or consider themselves indispensable in the opposition, the regime seeks to demonstrate two things: that Nandala has failed as Leader of Opposition to hold a few MPs together and therefore cannot be trusted to hold the country together, and that opposition MPs are opportunistic and simply looking for bread and butter.
The author is a political and social critic. He is a former editor of Sunday Monitor and The Independent
bichachi@africamail.com
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