{UAH} Awori to Bobi: Use the gun

Frank Mujabi,/ Edward p'Ojim/ Moses Nekyon/ Ikanos

For completely different reasons, I also agree with Aggrey Awori. Kayibanda will never be removed through non-violent means. I think I have already made this very clear- why I am un-enthusiastic about the Bob Wine phenomenon and his so-called people power.. Kayibanda can only be removed using violence- and extreme violence- where thousands of lives will be sacrificed and the leadership of the NRA wiped out in a bloody purge.. Nothing else will dislodge the Rwandan outlaw and his criminal regime- not elections, not street protests, not non-violent forms of resistance. It is only the barrel of a gun that Kayibanda will take seriously. But it is good for Ugandans to go through this Bob Wine phase- as they will learn valuable lessons from its inevitable failure. After a year or two they will come back to square one and join hands with us in a violent overthrow of the Rwandan regime of occupation- because that is the only route open to our people to liberate themselves.

Bobby

Awori to Bobi: Use the gun

• November 14, 2018
• Written by BAKER BATTE

Aggrey Awori

Former minister of ICT Aggrey Awori has said Kyadondo East Member of Parliament Robert 'Bobi Wine' Kyagulanyi stands no chance against President Museveni. The one-time senior member of the opposition Uganda People's Congress spoke to Baker Batte Lule at his home in Kibimba, Bugiri district. Excerpts:-

What do you make of the emergence of Bobi Wine as a factor in Uganda's politics?

Bobi Wine's emergence was a sudden wind, not a hurricane; but President Museveni responded like it was a hurricane. Two, the NRM underestimated the discontented urban youths especially in Kampala who are a different material altogether; they respond to situations very quickly.

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Therefore, their response to unemployment is more forceful than in rural areas. The rural youth may complain but they still have the influence of their parents and they can survive with minimal resources which is not the case with the urban youths who need at least Shs 1,000 a day to survive.

Now, when this volcanic eruption of Bobi Wine happened, some people within NRM almost concluded that Bobi Wine was a blessing in disguise; he had come to remove (FDC's) Dr [Kizza] Besigye from Kampala. Besigye's support after Bobi Wine won in [Kyadondo East] has almost been eradicated in the Kampala metropolitan area.

The NRM started saying, 'this boy is good for us', but they didn't try enough to bring him into the Movement.

But would he have accepted to work with NRM?

If they had reached out to him, I'm confident he would have come to NRM because then he would have two advantages; his musical background would help him easily mobilise people and he would also be able to get resources to consolidate his position as a kingmaker in Buganda.

But Bobi Wine became a force to reckon with for speaking out against the excesses of the NRM government …

Those other artistes have other difficulties; they don't speak the language of the young people. You remember his clash with the Kampala Capital City Authority executive director Jennifer Musisi and Museveni literally condemned Musisi; so, he had an opportunity to slowly bring him in.

When you look at the way Bobi Wine conducted his campaign without any major incident, it showed that either the government underestimated him or there was an understanding that let's work together to get rid of Besigye.

But coming back to your question of whether he would have joined the NRM, I think he would have if serious people had approached him.

Do you think he is the right person to challenge Museveni?

Noooo! He can't manage. To get to State House, there are only three streets as long the tenant there is still Museveni. Number one; the ballot box but that one is full of potholes and hurdles. So, taking that avenue is losing even before the journey starts.

The other avenue is armed insurrection. He has got the potential to cause trouble for Museveni if he went through an armed revolt.

How does that work?

Urban guerrilla tactics are much more effective than rural guerrilla war. If he can follow that, then he can cause a split in the army and the police and they might tell Museveni to step aside as they deal with this issue. But I'm not sure Bobi Wine can pull off such a thing.

But Museveni calls himself a Ssabalwanyi [master of war].

That's what I'm saying; that is the route to State house. The third avenue is through parliament. Ever since he was elected, he has lived abroad more than he has been in parliament.

First he went to study, then when he was beaten, he rushed to the United States under the guise of seeking treatment. He should have rushed to parliament to seek the sympathy of MPs, especially within the NRM ranks. He should have cried there and I'm positive he would have garnered support.

To what effect would that support be?

To frustrate parliamentary programmes and therefore cause instability that would have propelled him to emerge as a national leader. He would be the main challenger to the leader of government business in the House. As a matter of fact he would have pushed aside the leader of opposition. 

But the president said he can do away with parliament…

You know doing away with parliament can cause a very serious constitutional crisis. That's when the army can come in. For somebody who has no experience in that industry of conflict, you can threaten them that you can do away with that place where you sit. But he [president] knows very well he cannot dismiss parliament without following procedure.

You can say majority of MPs are his but you see now that revolts are beginning from the NRM caucus. I recall during our time in the sixth parliament we were only 18 and the others, 114, but we were able to move a vote of censure against six ministers.

Then the question is: can Bobi Wine use any of those three avenues to get to power? He can be an inconvenience or jigger in the foot of Museveni but he can't stop him from sleeping.

What about a popular uprising?

I think that is premature and can't happen here. People are so mindful about their own security; so, there is no way you can have an Arab spring in Uganda. I don't want to appear as if I'm suggesting subversive activities but, I'm totally against the idea of armed Local Defence Units in the Kampala Metropolitan area. Some 20,000 armed people in Kampala portend trouble.

One battalion; which is 1,000 people, who know what they are doing, can take Kampala. As a matter of fact, all the coups we have had in Uganda have never had more than one battalion. So, for us to have 20 battalions; no matter how poorly trained they are, in Kampala is very dangerous.

That is what Gaddafi did in Libya; almost every person had a gun in that country. So, if Bobi Wine thinks of an armed insurrection, those are the people he should infiltrate.

You paint a picture of an indefatigable Museveni whose political rivals can't do anything to defeat him…

I heard about those calling for Museveni to become the chairman of the East African Federation, then we can get transition in Uganda. I remember even in the NRM there was such a proposal way back before the 2016 elections but Museveni rejected this proposal.

People who were with him in the bush will tell you how many times they tried to depose him while he was away. Somehow he would get wind of it, come back and outmanoeuvre them.

People who are making noise about Bobi Wine have not started mobilising using any of the three avenues we have enumerated. Up to now, he hasn't even made up his mind on whether he wants to go the political party way or he wants to remain an anonymous force without structures. 

Some people have argued against organisation, saying it will be easy for Museveni to finish him.

You cannot win an election in this country or elsewhere in a democracy when you don't have structures on the ground. He has to wake up to that fact.

If he is talking about armed insurrection, I haven't heard or seen anything on the ground that suggests that these people are training. When Museveni threatened [former two- time president Apollo Milton] Obote, he had at least a nucleus of Fronasa.

What does deployment of LDUs say of Museveni now that even his signature achievement of security is being reversed? That Museveni only has strength to fight a goat yet he is faced with a leopard?

Who is a leopard? All I see are goats; which are only changing spots to look like leopards. But to tell you the truth, I don't like an armed force outside the police and the army. The nearest he could have thought about was to put the LDUs under the NRM party.

Actually, if these opposition people infiltrate these LDUs, we shall have real problems. This testing…; bring your ID and academic papers is not enough at all. I think the president should have got an elite group from the army and police and deployed them in Kampala.

Is Museveni failing on organised crime?

What is so difficult with defeating these guys? When you check on the people killing people now, many of them are not politically motivated.

Have you looked at people who are sneaking to the Middle East as soldiers and armed security people; thousands of them are going to these places and when they come back, who knows where they are going and what they are doing? Somebody must check out these things.

So, how do you end Museveni's rule?

We are in multiparty dispensation; therefore, the party is very important in ending Museveni's rule.

But the other avenue that can be used with minimal consequences is the ballot. If people can organise and have serious people in parliament like the ones we had when the Movement was still very popular, then you can have things happen.

How can you tell me FDC is serious when it can't even organise just 40 people to work together. Now the craziest thing that is totally off the rails is this 'national dialogue'; people who are interested in politics but fear to stand anywhere are beating the drum of national dialogue!

Look at the organisations behind this dialogue; Elders' Forum and the Inter-Religious Council of Uganda! Can an NGO change a law in this country?

Their resolutions are of no effect in this country.

What should Bobi Wine be doing in the interim?

He should start to organise now. But every time he is asked 'are you prepared to be president', he says no. He thinks that those who are presidents in State House will tell him 'when you are ready, come in'.

He should come out boldly and say 'I'm interested; come join me in the struggle.'

Would he make a good president?

If he can't even make a decision on whether he is interested in taking on Museveni, I highly doubt. With due respect to my friend Bobi Wine; what is his policy on unemployment, for example? What is his policy on agriculture or industry?

The other day farmers faced a problem of prices of maize; did he make any statement?

What makes you think that when Museveni leaves, Bobi Wine will come up with a policy on education or unemployment? You must have good ideas before you enter that State House.

But he would have a whole lot of advisors on these issues …

You have to show direction. Museveni has held this government together for more than 30 years because he has got certain instincts on how to lead people.

With due respect to his academic qualifications, Museveni is not the strongest in that cabinet academically but he has got the capacity to wheel together minds to come up with something.

Whoever wants to take on from him, we want to see how he is going to handle certain issues. All the presidents this country has had, have lost power on account of the gun. I have worked with four presidents and each of them that has lost power either ignored the gun or didn't know how to use it properly.

Bobi Wine believes in nonviolent means of capturing power…

But Museveni is in power largely by the use of the gun; so, Bobi Wine might have to consider that position. Unless he takes any of the three avenues I told you about, he has no chance.

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