{UAH} Help with the Economic Model?

Well I do not know.

Makerere where the sun never sets, I was told around 2011/12 has just
one professor who was teaching modelling.

Basically every country must have a basic econometric model that it
uses to estimate a number of key economic indicators. It is a must
irrespective of political inclination.

Recently, I asked a question here, " how many 24-35 years between 1999
-2019 have moved into their own homes" (I was looking at 14 or 15
years)- I received a blank reply.

For the health of an economy and politics such facts are crucial.

Well, it doesn't matter anyway; for the construction sector, one can
also steal and get a free mortgage or house hold item manufacturing is
done in China.

China can model their economy instead.

Now, Uganda has only 400000 state workers (according to President
Museveni) out of over the 19 million employable adults .

Those in the private sector are not known, since majority are in the
informal sector. For example, Uganda has about 120000 (taxis) matatus
as per last KCCA count (kcca stopped collecting matatu fees one and
half years ago.

The same applies to people working in fresh food markets (market vendors). Mzee
Museveni forgave market vendors from paying taxes- what a relief !

Market Vendors like their counterparts the matatu drivers and their
conductors do not pay taxes, have no pension and not registered with
NSSF either!

Uganda therefore has between 800000 -900000 on effective (meaning
those who pay monthly) NSSF contribution according to NSSF Director
Mr. Patrick Byarugaba.

BUT then Uganda has more than 15 million children in (Universal)
Primary Education (UPE).

Recent data shows more than 950000 young adults sat and completed O
level and A level ( check the facts)

And number of teachers tally with figures above? Indeed not.

Such are stupid questions.

As per my own investigations, URA does not record number of people on
PAYE. In most cases it will be a futile attempt to know so long as
Uganda is a private led economy, the state needs not to now.

Personal IDs are not attached to ones bank account and indeed IDs are
just a recent phenomenon and wages/salaries are not paid in banks!

We can also correlate the above with people who have electricity and
data from Umeme that shows a number which does not exceed 1.500.000
million. Then you get a clearer picture and the allegories of the
African.

Small service provide like Nyakanga , Kilembe will add as little as
150000 people.
This tells us one absurd story- that people in effective employment in
Uganda does not exceed 3000000 - 4500000 million people.

The elite can now guess estimate average income!

I miss Prof. J.B. Gajda, he is a great man.

Bwanika.

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