{UAH} Fw: [PK] IN KIBRA RAILA FIGHTING FOR HIS SURVIVAL IN WESTERN

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From: 'mohamed warsama' via Progressive Kenyans <progressive-kenyans@googlegroups.com>

To: Uchunguzi Online <uchunguzionline@yahoogroups.com>; CHANGE MOMBASA 2012 <changemombasa2012@yahoogroups.com>; Progressive-kenyans <progressive-kenyans@googlegroups.com>

Sent: Saturday, 21 September 2019, 09:31:35 GMT-4

Subject: [PK] IN KIBRA RAILA FIGHTING FOR HIS SURVIVAL IN WESTERN

KIBRA: RAILA FIGHTING FOR HIS HOLD ON WESTERN NOT RUTO

BY MOHAMED WARSAMA

MEDIA and observers are superficially depicting the Kibra by-election as a 2022 tussle between DP Ruto and ODM leader Raila Odinga.

On the surface that would appear to be the case.

But scratch the surface and delve deeper beneath it you would realise that Kibra is not so much a battle between Ruto and Raila for 2022 but a crucial battle Raila is determined to win for one reason only which has nothing to do with Ruto.

Raila is very much aware of the rippling effects on his Western base should he lose the Kibra by-election.

It is believed that the constituency has either a majorly Luhya vote bloc or a very high percentage of Luhya voters closely rivalling the Luo vote bloc.

Raila zoomed from being a regional Luo presidential contender  to  the main opposition presidential candidate on the wings of the Luhya and Coast vote blocs.

If he loses in Kibra on November 7 it will have a paradim shift effect on his Western grip. 

Raila cannot afford to lose control of the Western region. He will then be at the mercy of Mt Kenya bloc which is now mostly for Ruto.

Coast vote bloc will not by itself or of itself make a difference should he lose Western.

Therefore he must win in Kibra on November 7 or see his 2022 plans go up in smoke.

That is why he is secretly funding a Kikuyu to fight Mariga in the courts.

Removing Mariga politically  by a court order might be just the lifeline he needs to retain Luhyas in his corner come 2022.

MOHAMED WARSAMA

Sent from Yahoo Mail on Android

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