{UAH} A GLANCE AT PAST EFFORTS AT UGANDA OPPOSITION UNITY
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A GLANCE AT PAST EFFORTS AT UGANDA OPPOSITION UNITY (1996, 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016)
Omar Kalinge-Nnyago (rtd)
September 03, 2019 (700 words)
The purpose of this note is to summarize the salient operational features of the past efforts at opposition unity (1996-2016) and tease a forecast for 2021, assuming that another election will be held.
1996- Inter Party Forces Cooperation IPFC: UPC and DP formally smoothly worked together. They campaigned together, shared human and financial resources. It is believed that IPFC's Paul Ssemogerere won the presidential vote, but was rigged. But because IPFC failed to field candidates in each of the lower electoral positions (MPs and Local Government), the rigging was easy to explain thus: How could you have won the presidential election when you could not even find candidates at lower level? (Key Driver: Political Parties, DP and UPC).
2001- DP's Hottest election of the post Obote era. Ssebaggala circumstantially backed new kid on the block- Col Kizza Besigye of Reform Agenda. No formal agreement written. No formal name. Again, it is believed that - that nameless coalition's presidential candidate won. Rigged. Again, coalition failed to field lower level candidates. Rigging easy to explain. (Key Drivers: DP and Reform Agenda).
2006 – Informal coalition with a name: G6. It is appropriate to call it a syndicate. There was that unwritten agreement by a large section of the opposition to back Col Besigye. Best presidential election so far. Besigye believed to have won (at least Sejusa believes so and is on record). Again, opposition failed to field candidates in each of the available lower positions. Rigging easy to explain. (Key Drivers: Political parties and Academia. Remember "The Free Movement" of Prof Jjuuko, Prof Jean Barya and their ilk?).
2011 – Formal Cooperation, Inter Party Cooperation. IPC Protocols of cooperation signed. Five parties (CP, DP, FDC, JEEMA, UPC, SDP signed). Wrote manifesto as a group. By election time, DP and UPC had left the coalition. The electorate was polarized. Too much friendly fire (opposition infighting). It is believed that the IPC candidate lost that election. Again, opposition failed to field candidates in each of the available MP and Local government positions. Double tragedy. (Key Drivers: 5 political parties that ended up 3).
2016 – Formal Cooperation, The Democratic Alliance, TDA. All opposition parties in parliament, UPC, CP, DP, FDC, JEEMA sign up to the process. There were issues with UPC. A faction did not support TDA. Then last minute, FDC pulls out. We witness the most divisive election of the post Obote era. A lot of energy spent on infighting between FDC Col Besigye and TDA's Amama Mbabazi. This animosity lingers to date. Again, opposition failed to field candidates in each of the available lower electoral positions (Key Drivers: Civil Society – remember Bishop Zac, Godber Tumushabe, Arthur Larok and their ilk and the Political parties).
2021- Any lessons? What are we doing different?
Political Parties are struggling. FDC broke in two, DP is living with factions, and UPC remains fractured. JEEMA remains cohesive but on the periphery. CP is hard to trace except in Peoples Government, where CP leader is a high ranking official. UPC (leadership) is in cooperation with the ruling party. Ant is too new to be judged except for its recognizable leader. Civil Society is in hiding. Academia is in a state of resignation. Opposition in auto pilot?
In comes the disruptive People Power wave that is quite unsettling to established political formations, and for the first time, a section of the opposition and the ruling party seem to be united. United in their determination to crush PP. While eyeing the future, it is not clear whether PP is making deliberate effort to learn from the past and drawing a robust risk plan, given the stiff resistance it is faced with.
a) Who is driving the opposition unity agenda this time? Will 2021 be characterized by intense polarization perhaps even more intense than the TDA- FDC rift of the 2016 elections?
b) Where are THE PEOPLE (the voters) in all this? How is scientifically taking/recording the "political temperature" of THE PEOPLE?
c) While it is certain that the opposition will have a presidential candidate (or more as usual), will the opposition, this time, be able to field candidates at all the lower levels (MP and Local government)?
Your feedback is highly appreciated.
--
-- Omar Kalinge-Nnyago (rtd)
September 03, 2019 (700 words)
The purpose of this note is to summarize the salient operational features of the past efforts at opposition unity (1996-2016) and tease a forecast for 2021, assuming that another election will be held.
1996- Inter Party Forces Cooperation IPFC: UPC and DP formally smoothly worked together. They campaigned together, shared human and financial resources. It is believed that IPFC's Paul Ssemogerere won the presidential vote, but was rigged. But because IPFC failed to field candidates in each of the lower electoral positions (MPs and Local Government), the rigging was easy to explain thus: How could you have won the presidential election when you could not even find candidates at lower level? (Key Driver: Political Parties, DP and UPC).
2001- DP's Hottest election of the post Obote era. Ssebaggala circumstantially backed new kid on the block- Col Kizza Besigye of Reform Agenda. No formal agreement written. No formal name. Again, it is believed that - that nameless coalition's presidential candidate won. Rigged. Again, coalition failed to field lower level candidates. Rigging easy to explain. (Key Drivers: DP and Reform Agenda).
2006 – Informal coalition with a name: G6. It is appropriate to call it a syndicate. There was that unwritten agreement by a large section of the opposition to back Col Besigye. Best presidential election so far. Besigye believed to have won (at least Sejusa believes so and is on record). Again, opposition failed to field candidates in each of the available lower positions. Rigging easy to explain. (Key Drivers: Political parties and Academia. Remember "The Free Movement" of Prof Jjuuko, Prof Jean Barya and their ilk?).
2011 – Formal Cooperation, Inter Party Cooperation. IPC Protocols of cooperation signed. Five parties (CP, DP, FDC, JEEMA, UPC, SDP signed). Wrote manifesto as a group. By election time, DP and UPC had left the coalition. The electorate was polarized. Too much friendly fire (opposition infighting). It is believed that the IPC candidate lost that election. Again, opposition failed to field candidates in each of the available MP and Local government positions. Double tragedy. (Key Drivers: 5 political parties that ended up 3).
2016 – Formal Cooperation, The Democratic Alliance, TDA. All opposition parties in parliament, UPC, CP, DP, FDC, JEEMA sign up to the process. There were issues with UPC. A faction did not support TDA. Then last minute, FDC pulls out. We witness the most divisive election of the post Obote era. A lot of energy spent on infighting between FDC Col Besigye and TDA's Amama Mbabazi. This animosity lingers to date. Again, opposition failed to field candidates in each of the available lower electoral positions (Key Drivers: Civil Society – remember Bishop Zac, Godber Tumushabe, Arthur Larok and their ilk and the Political parties).
2021- Any lessons? What are we doing different?
Political Parties are struggling. FDC broke in two, DP is living with factions, and UPC remains fractured. JEEMA remains cohesive but on the periphery. CP is hard to trace except in Peoples Government, where CP leader is a high ranking official. UPC (leadership) is in cooperation with the ruling party. Ant is too new to be judged except for its recognizable leader. Civil Society is in hiding. Academia is in a state of resignation. Opposition in auto pilot?
In comes the disruptive People Power wave that is quite unsettling to established political formations, and for the first time, a section of the opposition and the ruling party seem to be united. United in their determination to crush PP. While eyeing the future, it is not clear whether PP is making deliberate effort to learn from the past and drawing a robust risk plan, given the stiff resistance it is faced with.
a) Who is driving the opposition unity agenda this time? Will 2021 be characterized by intense polarization perhaps even more intense than the TDA- FDC rift of the 2016 elections?
b) Where are THE PEOPLE (the voters) in all this? How is scientifically taking/recording the "political temperature" of THE PEOPLE?
c) While it is certain that the opposition will have a presidential candidate (or more as usual), will the opposition, this time, be able to field candidates at all the lower levels (MP and Local government)?
Your feedback is highly appreciated.
--
H.OGWAPITI
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"To announce that there must be no criticism of the president, or that we are to stand by the president right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public."
---Theodore Roosevelt
-----------------------------------------------------
"To announce that there must be no criticism of the president, or that we are to stand by the president right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public."
---Theodore Roosevelt
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