{UAH} If Trump is impeached in the House but not removed from office through the Senate, won't that only embolden Trump?

Helmut Barz, Freelance writer, copywriter and translator (1998-present)

Well, that's the reason why Nancy Pelosi waited to so long before she got the ball rolling. An impeachment inquiry just about Russia and the Mueller report might have made the Democrats look like sore losers.

Now, the situation is different and what many think is the smoking gun is actually on the table for all to see. That's also why public opinion shifts toward impeachment.

Nevertheless: I still don't see a conviction in the Senate. At the moment, I think it will be a 50/50 split with some Republicans splitting from their party line (and maybe a few "I am my own man/woman" Democrats, too). But this may change.

This will lead to acquital and another flurry of "total exoneration" tweets from Trump who will take a lot of Victory Laps (remember his behavior after the Mueller Report?), while getting his base up in arms and to the voting booths. He is well aware, I think, that he won't win that many new votes, so he needs his base to show up in droves while Demcrat voters feel less inclined to vote. This may work as a strategy, was Democrats will lose precious time actually talking about issues and winning voters. Depending on who will be their candidate, their voters may not be very motivated as an election about the impeachment is ultimately an election about the past and not about the future.

So, their best strategy is to get this impeachment process over as quickly as possible and present as much evidence/cause as much damage as possible, so that the Senate will look corrupt when acquitting Trump. This may win them not just the presidency, but also enough seats in the Senate to flip majorities. Given that 22 Republican Senators are up for election, that may actually happen.

But all in all: Yes, Trump will feel emboldened. But whether the public and his voters share this opinion remains to be seen, especially since the current attemps of continued stonewalling may also damage the whole Trump administration and make them look guilty.

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