{UAH} Fw: [PK] RAILA NEEDS EIGHT PAIRS OF HANDS IN HIS BEDROOM ?

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From: 'mohamed warsama' via Progressive Kenyans <progressive-kenyans@googlegroups.com>

To: Uchunguzi Online <uchunguzionline@yahoogroups.com>; Progressive-kenyans <progressive-kenyans@googlegroups.com>; CHANGE MOMBASA 2012 <changemombasa2012@yahoogroups.com>

Sent: Sunday, 3 November 2019, 14:06:20 GMT-5

Subject: [PK] RAILA NEEDS EIGHT PAIRS OF HANDS IN HIS BEDROOM ?

RAILA NEEDS EIGHT PAIRS OF HANDS IN HIS BEDROOM ?

BY MOHAMED WARSAMA

I dont know now what is the tradition now in fast-changing Saudi Arabia, but in the early 1960s, when profligate King Saud had a heart attack and rumours were flying around that he was incapacitated, he insisted to his doctors that his senior wife should be summoned to him.aa

The ailing king forced himself to have sex with his wife No. 1 and the news was flashed to every tribal chief in the kingdom. They were all satisfied that the king was still a performing Lion of the Desert. He thus escaped the risk of being deposed until 1964 when half-brother King Faysal ousted him for squandering oil wealth.

Who would have thought that Raila Amollo Odinga, the Agwambo, the King of Luos, the owner of Kibra-Langata seat, would come down from his pedestal on-high and line up in alliance with what is a virtual B Team of Governors Mutua, Kivutha, Ngilu and Waiguru to  plead to his people to vote in for Imran Okoth the ODM Candidate ?

Before we go into that, let us examine his new-found allies. None of them is a national figure on the level of Kalonzo Musyoka, Musalia Mudavadi and Moses Wetangula.

Mutua is still young and needs prolonged exposure on the national stage. I see him among the Next Generation that will emerge in 2027-2032.

Mutua would be better advised not to support Raila. Instead he should work to hasten Raila's exit from the stage instead of prolonging it by backing him.

It is not a coincidence that Embakasi East MP Babu Owino who harbors presidential aspirations in 2027 conveniently checked into a hospital yesterday. He was apparently unhappy that Raila invited Mutua to join him in Kibra.

Ukambani will split four ways between Kalonzo, Mutua, Kivutha and Ngilu. Ngilu is a spoiler and she's bound to oppose Mutua's claim to Kalonzo's mantle as Ukambani kingpin.

Raila will not be able to enjoy the undivided Kamba vote bloc that Kalonzo delivered to him twice in 2013 and 2017.

He will also not enjoy a preponderance of Luhya votes if Mudavadi and Wetangula go their way.

Waiguru will not make political headway in Mt. Kenya. One only has to recall that President Uhuru thrice postponed a BBI tour with Raila because he knew the ground was hostile to Raila.

We know Waiguru who was originally aspiring to be DP Ruto's running mate switched to Raila after her Kirinyaga rival and WR Purity Ngirici developed a special relationship with Ruto which Waiguru resented.

So much then for Raila's new allies.

Kibra is not so much about Ruto but everything about Raila.

That Raila accepted allies to campaign for his Kibra candidate explains volumes about the tribal mathematics in Kibra.

Cartoonist Maddo yesterday had a graphic breakdown of the tribal votes showing  there were 36,000 Luhyas,  29,000 Luos, Kikuyus 24,000, Kamba 21,000, Nubi 13,000 and Nairobi Kalenjin 4,000.

In past elections, Raila benefited a lot from the support of Luhyas and Nubis and in 2013 and 2017 from Kambas too.

Now such support is no longer guaranteed.

The Kibra by-election is a referendum on Raila himself. If he loses, he can forget 2022.

No wonder ODM has started familiar noises about rigging. There was no ODM outcry after suffering defeats in Ugenya and Embakasi South.

In fact, Raila is on record as accepting that in a democratic poll there must be a winner and loser.

Why the change of attitude to Kibra ?

In Kibra we are realizing for the first time that where Raila's electoral stakes are directly involved, he cannot be defeated. He must win. Any other outcome is tantamount to being rigged out.

MOHAMED WARSAMA

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