{UAH} Change will happen soon- Gen Museveni is evidently weakening on all fronts
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8:41 AM |
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Opinion
By Arthur Larok
I have been following with interest the declaration by Brig. Henry Tumukunde to stand for the position of president of Uganda. A lot has been said since by many analysts and speculators – ***'… he is up to his usual spy agenda, he is just being diversionary, he has come to disorganize the opposition like Amama and Sejjusa did, he is seeking relevance, he manifests cracks withing the first family and trying to build some clout for intra family dialogue…'***
Whether one cares about one, two or more of the above conspiracies is beside the point.
The language and public posturing of Sejjusa, Tumukunde, the late Benon Biraaro, Major Kazoora and many other bush-war historicals is important for Uganda and we should encourage more to come out while they still can – Elwelo, Katumba Wamala and others. We need all the voices for change coming out and publicly involved in the debate and struggle for ***leadership change and political transition*** in Uganda. This is the single most important project any Ugandan should care about.
Leadership change will happen sooner than later. Gen Museveni is evidently weakening on all fronts – physically, emotionally and even mentally. He is no longer and will never be the Museveni of 10, 20, or 30 years ago – it is a fact. The leadership change and transition agenda is therefore critical and urgent.
We have learnt from other countries where long-serving leaders have exited or forced out that the post-era is not always smooth, let alone lead to the transformation expected. Somalia after Siad Barre, Sudan after Bashir, Egypt after Mubarak, Ethiopia after Meles, Libya after Ghaddafi, Zimbabwe after Mugabe, Iraq after Saddam and many others.
What is very clear about most of those countries is that the military has a major say on the transition, and it is for this reason that anyone vying for Museveni's seat cannot antagonize the military. Stated more positively, Museveni's successors must constructively engage with the army and military. It is for this reason that the individuals I mentioned earlier become important.
They have been or still are part of Uganda's military and may wield some influence that is important for Uganda's transition debate and prospects. Of course, the future is not just about the military but a broader civic – political – business leaders compact.
Other players remain critical and needed on the table. Mugisha Muntu, Bobi Wine, Besigye and political party leaders like Mao are already part of the train, but learning from previous attempts in coalition building, some of the traditional and long serving opposition leaders often put their egos and logos ahead of national interests. Bobi Wine and Mugisha Muntu are thus a breath of freshness in an opposition playing field that sometimes feels as disappointing as the regime they seek to unseat.
And this brings me to the call for Ruhunda, Achiro, Adeke to join in the declaration for presidency too. We need more sober and selfless people in the opposition so that The Democratic Alliance (TDA)-type of process can go beyond the capture of the past and get the opposition to dialogue first about **the what** , then **the how** and finally **the who** . Previous efforts at coalition building was often overshadowed by the who would be the presidential flag bearer and less on what change the opposition would bring to Uganda and how to deliver it. Once the **what (agenda)** and **how (strategy)** is clear, then the who can deliver this will be the easier to fathom.
It appears to me that a more sensible transition pathway for Uganda may be a variant of what Kenya went through post Arap Moi. In getting to the who – the person who can lead the opposition victory in a contest with Museveni may not necessarily be the right leader for Uganda and that is why a team rather than a person is what we need to figure out.
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