{UAH} What's your best guess for the 2020 electoral map scenario of Joe Biden vs. President Trump?
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5:21 AM |
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First, Biden will hold all the Clinton states from 2016. I don't think there is any controversy there, aside from New Hampshire which could possibly turn to Trump because of a strong economy.
Let's look at the states Biden will swing from most likely to less likely:
Pennsylvania: Out of all the states that Trump won this the most likely state to swing. Biden was born in the Keystone State. He has a strong connection to the working class voters in the state. On top of that there is the black vote which I believe will put him over the top in Pennsylvania.
Michigan: This time around I do not think many Michigan Democrats will sit out like they did in 2016. They are likely to come out in large numbers to defeat Trump as they did in the 2018 Midterms. The suburban white women vote will likely be a factor here as well.
North Carolina: The African American vote is the distinguishing factor in this state and to a smaller extent the suburban white women vote. This in my opinion will swing North Carolina back to Biden, one of the states Obama won in 2008.
Arizona: The 2018 midterms previewed what will happen here in 2020. Krysten Sinema, a bi-sexual Democrat, won here. She is a bit of a fiscal conservative, so is Biden, Biden could definitely swing this to his favor. Latinos and suburban white women are a factor here as well.
Florida: If Bloomberg were the nominee, this state would be the most likely to flip. Retirees tend to vote Republican, and outside of Presidential politics this is pretty much a red state. That is sign that using ageism against Biden won't work well here. But black voters will come out in force against Trump here in Florida, as well as white suburban women, and Bloomberg's money may just sway enough retiree voters away from Trump to Biden.
Georgia: Stacey Abrams nearly beat Brian Kemp for governor here in 2018. Black voters may even be more motivated in 2020. If Atlanta and its suburbs come out in force, this state may be turning blue in 2020 and the years to come.
Now let's look at the states Trump swung from Obama and will least likely to most likely hold in 2020:
Wisconsin: This one is close. Trump has been polling well here. This normally is a blue state, but it is trending red. But Biden can win here, so it is not safe for Trump.
Ohio: Trump has large footprint in Ohio. This has not gone away much since 2016. The black vote could help Biden, but not by enough. Trump connects well with the typical Ohio voter.
Maine (2nd District): Trump will likely hold the rural Maine vote, he connects well with these voters, as they are a large majority of his base.
Iowa: Trump bailed out the farmers, this helped and hurt him with those voters, but with an overall strong economy I think it helped him more. Trump will likely hold this state based on the strong economy.
Texas, Texas, Texas!
With a lot of young people moving to this state from all over the country this state has been trending blue, and will likely turn blue in the years to come. Still Beto O'Rourke came up short in 2018, but he did make it close. Trump is still likely to win.
Biden also could repeat in Nebraska's 2nd District like Obama did in 2008.
So there you have it.
Best case scenario for Biden is:
And the worst case:
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