{UAH} DEMOCRATS' BIG WHIFF ON STATE LEGISLATURES WILL HAUNT THEM FOR A DECADE

Democrats' big whiff on state legislatures will haunt them for a decade

by Washington Examiner, | 

 

November 06, 2020 12:00 AM

a week ago, members of both parties were anticipating another Democratic “blue wave” election — Republicans with fear, Democrats with delight. Not only would President Trump and Trumpism be soundly repudiated in a landslide loss, but Democrats would ride Joe Biden’s coattails to establish a stable Senate majority, picking up perhaps a dozen U.S. House seats along the way.

How wrong everyone was. Even assuming Biden is declared the winner, he will have won in relatively close contests in several competitive states — and, at best, Democrats will end up with a 50-50 Senate. As for the House, Democrats are now more likely to lose ground than to gain seats. Such a result would get Republicans very close to the House majority they would want to build in the 2022 midterm elections under a prospective Biden presidency. They wouldn’t even need a huge “red wave” to do it, just a few well-placed wins amid public discontent.

But still another area in which Democrats really came up short — an area often overlooked but frequently more consequential than the big Senate races everyone watches: Democrats had been hoping their landslide victory would hand them power in a number of new state legislative chambers.

This was key to their goal of cementing themselves into power. Not only would it give them opportunities to advance their policy agenda, but it would also hand them much greater control over the redistricting process than they had enjoyed in 2011.

Alas, with only Arizona’s results still outstanding, it appears that Democrats failed to flip even a single legislative chamber in their favor. The latest tally by the National Conference of State Legislatures suggests that Republicans gained full legislative control in New Hampshire (and thus full control of the state government), and that's about it.

This failure will echo through the next decade. Democrats, given greater power at the state level, could have erected massive obstacles to Republicans’ goal of staging a post-Trump comeback. Instead, they now look forward to a second dismal decade of living under maps they did not themselves draw.

To be sure, Democrats will control their share of the redistricting process in blue states. But they missed a chance for much more. With a few key wins, Democrats could have gerrymandered maps of Minnesota, Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, for example, putting Republicans at an even greater structural disadvantage than the one they have already been dealt this decade by patterns of population growth and demographic movement. Instead, Republicans alone will draw the boundaries in large states such as Texas and Georgia, where Democrats failed to make expected gains that would check their power. Thanks to the election of Rep. Greg Gianforte as governor, Republicans will also have full control in fast-growing Montana, which is set to gain a second U.S. House seat.

The redistricting process is often overrated as a long-term means of securing power. Were it really that big, Democrats could never have won their House majority in 2018, and Republicans would have had little chance in 2010 or 1994. But redistricting is not insignificant, especially when it precedes a new president’s first midterm election.

If Biden is declared the winner, Democrats will be thrilled, of course. But they will still face an uphill battle in moving their agenda, especially its more radical parts, because they failed to mobilize and win at the local level.

EM         -> { Trump for 2020 }

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