{UAH} Only the after-election moments worry Museveni, not the election

A more accurate assessment of the recently concluded Kibalama-NUP saga has to look beyond the election itself, and into the immediate moments after the election.

This court case was an intervention into the future, not the present. While Bobi Wine could have won the court case, the most important victory ended in Museveni's jacket. His was a strategic victory. See, Museveni's team is constantly asking: "After we have thoroughly robbed these boys in this election, what are these boys likely to do in response?" [It does not matter whether the robbery is real or simply perceived].

And these boys have been heard intimating that the aftermaths of this election will be the spark for them to throw their bodies onto the streets of Kampala and chase Museveni in a Bashir-Mubarak-Mugabe-Kabila-Keita- Ben Ali style. Isn't this also the only reason they are participating in this already flawed process? [Of course, majority of opposition do not care about changing the status quo – are in the election for a "chance to eat" – but Museveni will not take chances].

Let me state for the umpteenth time: incumbent candidate Yoweri Museveni and team are fully aware that they cannot be defeated in an election. They have this under control. But they are also aware that sustained street protests, specifically in Kampala, can cost them power. To this end, while they have to appear to be preparing for the election – they havetoputupabigshowofthis–all their eyes are on that moment after election - the possibility of street protests.

And if there are any lessons they can take from the Buganda- Kayunga or Mabira forest protests, just a couple of weeks of steady protests can overwhelm them. [The team is internally incoherent]. How then do you tactfully, but also openly, make street protests unattractive? Kibalama-NUP saga: As the events of this case unfolded, it became clear Mr Kibalama had no case against Bobi Wine for taking over the leadership of NUP.

There had been no transaction, and unpaid balances, and there were no flouted procedures either. But somehow, a big case was crafted that dragged Bobi Wine and team to court. We debated it animatedly; lawyer Medard Sseggona wowed the country with one of his trademark performances.

The country waited for the judgment with bated breath. Then the judgment came, addressing a technicality, and not any of the pleas that had been sought. It was reminiscent of those conversations between Vladimir and Estragon in Samuel Beckett's Waiting for Godot. They are only coherent in their disjointedness.

But this disjointedness is not without method: in giving Bobi Wine victory over an inexistent case – which sadly, Mr Wine and team wildly celebrated – Museveni's courts [and by extension Museveni himself ] had won a legitimacy battle. The courts made themselves likeable in the sense that should these NUP/ People Power chaps feel aggrieved at the conclusion of the 2021 election – which is highly likely – their next course of action should be going to [Museveni's] court.

Once in court, all their venom, anger and urgency will be slowly but methodically sapped in that slow-moving court drama. Medard Sseggona will be at it again, the cameras will be rolling, and the country will be cheering on. This will then give Museveni time to manage the moment, before court delivers its judgment. You guessed it. But Museveni's courts have been embarrassed too much to win back enough trust in political matters.

Aware of this, Museveni has been shooting at another front: directly attack these boys and girls and see how they react, make them familiar with brutality, and lock up some of them – to reduce the numbers of diehards, and send a message to potential conscripts. Surely, Museveni's intelligence knew NUP had backup signatures secured elsewhere, not just those in their Kamwokya offices.

For sure, there is no crime with donning in military lookalike clothes. [If this were any illegality, this would have been clear to NUP. But also, security would have started with NRM-leaning surrogates who don actual military uniforms, and also have guns]. But the raid was not for any illegalities on the part of NUP but, rather, to gauge the possible reactions of these activists once attacked.

Nothing happened. But some of these boys are currently inundating Kitalya prison, and potential recruits were fright-struck. The bigger calculation is for the moment after the election. By the time protests are called, there will be no one to call on, and the Museveni defence forces will be readier – having rehearsed their routines earlier.

But that is not all. So, we have had the emergence of vigilante groups all threatening to protect Museveni's vote. The most spectacular to emerge are the Karate Team that has come to guard the NRM vote.

There is actually no vote to guard but, rather, a moment to protect. Together with infamous LDUs, crime preventers – who have vowed readiness to kill for the incumbent – and Abdallah Kitatta's Boda-Boda 2010 [soon rebranding], these initiatives are looking beyond the election.

yusufkajura@gmail.com

The author is a PhD fellow at Makerere Institute of Social Research.

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"When a man is stung by a bee, he doesn't set off to destroy all beehives"

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