{UAH} Do you think Donald Trump will be forcibly removed from the White House on January 20, 2021?

Dennis Holt

Since everybody's speculating, here's my take.

Trump skipped his scheduled Thanksgiving at Mar a Lago to stay in the White House.

To the best of my knowledge, he hasn't been back to Mar a Lago since the election.

The City of Palm Beach is requiring him to remove his helipad from the property, and, more significantly, to abide by the zoning regulations that only allow him to maintain a club at Mar a Lago if he doesn't live there more than 3 weeks out of the year.

He loved that people paid to hear him talk, but those same "confidants" will have a bunch of advice that Trump is in no mood to hear, which is likely why he is avoiding the club during this painful transition. He will still want to keep the club, however, as basking in its glory was part of his Mar a Lago experience, but the helipad loss shows that the City of Palm Beach may no longer be overly impressed with his flouting their rules.

Trump is obviously unloved in NYC. The additional protective spaces around Trump Tower will be decommissioned on January 21, and the State of NY is highly likely to prosecute him soon after he leaves office, something he will want to make more difficult by avoiding service in the state.

So, while the optics of being dragged from the White House are undignified enough to be unlikely, he really has no place left to "go home" to.

Of course, he could just bum around his various hotels and golf courses, while he has them. Not like he's going to be living out of a cardboard box, before winding up a guest of the state.

Edit - Dec 8, 2020: The Washington Post cites another reason Trump wants his club. Mar a Lago requires a lot of upkeep, which Trump can expense to the club as a business, but only if Mar a Lago can be operated as a club rather than as a personal residence. They include the agreement Trump signed with the City of Palm Beach.

Trump made Florida his official residence. He may have also made a legal mess.

Builders are renovating Trump's residence suite at Mar a Lago. Melania is said to be looking for a school for Barron in the area.

Trump Residences at Mar-a-Lago Are Being Renovated While Melania Looks at Fla. Schools for Barron

I still haven't seen anything indicating that Trump, himself, has visited since the election, however staff have reportedly been instructed to prepare for the Trumps to spend Christmas through New Year's Day at the property.

Trump to travel to Mar-a-Lago but aides unclear about final month in office

Edit 2 - Dec 16, 2020: Trump's Mar a Lago neighbors are trying to get the City of Palm Beach to enforce the residence limitation clause in Trump's agreement. Trump could just blow them off, but this demand letter targets the Secret Service, which is not allowed to do illegal stuff. Also uncovered, a second agreement that might complicate Trump's turning his club back into a residence:

The 1993 Palm Beach agreement isn't the only document that raises questions about whether Trump can legally live at Mar-a-Lago. He also signed a document deeding development rights for Mar-a-Lago to the National Trust for Historic Preservation, a Washington-based, privately funded nonprofit organization that works to save historic sites around the country. As part of the National Trust deal, Trump agreed to "forever" relinquish his rights to develop Mar-a-Lago or to use it for "any purpose other than club use."

Mar-a-Lago neighbors to Trump: Spend your post-presidency elsewhere

As an aside, more people have started posting their own answers to the original question in the comments to mine. You are welcome to do so, but your answer will likely be seen by more people if you post it to the original question itself

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