{UAH} Judging by the trends, who is the strongest contender for Donald Trump if he wanted to run for presidency campaign in 2024?

Never Trumper Republican

He is not running in 2024. This is just a way-out for him for losing the White House. The recent incumbent president to do so in modern times was George Bush HW (sr) in 1992 election.

The reason incumbent presidents have significant advantage in elections is because they have so much free tv and press coverage. Trump had more TV coverage than several Presidents combined due to COVID and his being a celebrity.

Though much of the coverage was negative, it doesn't really matter. Trump is a showman and he very well understands that negative coverage is much better than no coverage. His negative coverage was strategic of his own doing. He would say or do something outrageous, often without realizing it, and then he would get free tv coverage for months, while paying close attention to ratings. When the rating subsided, he would say or do something even more shocking.

Manipulation of the media backfired. He lost an election. He lost by doubling down on free tv coverage, because more people disliked him and were willing to vote against him, despite his popularity.

There is no indication that Biden won't seek a second term. If his health deteriorates, Harris is likely to lead the way.

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