{UAH} On the basis of Matt Gaetz' appearance and strange behavior on Fox News, do you get the feeling he is in deep, deep trouble?

On the basis of Matt Gaetz' appearance and strange behavior on Fox News, do you get the feeling he is in deep, deep trouble?

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Yes.

Gaetz is reportedly not very popular among his peers. He is a thirsty, attention starved political opportunist with a weak grasp on policy and possessing ambition that far outstrips his talent.

That Tucker Carlson interview was beyond strange and showed a man in desperate need of a lawyer. He actually implicated himself in other crimes not related to the headlines that hit yesterday.

If I heard him correctly, the minor woman was interviewed by federal prosecutors not for the interstate trafficking but in relation to a federal Pay to Play investigation. For a politician that's real trouble, far more than a permissive relationship with a slight minor.

He further implicated his father in some scheme, accused a former DOJ official of a monetary shakedown in the tens of millions of dollars (which actually demands a financial investigation to isolate how that value was arrived at). Then to top it off, it seemed to me that he made Tucker Carlson a material witness, as well as Mrs Carlson, announcing that they had dinner with Matt Gaetz's underaged paramour.

To be honest I think the Age of Consent in Florida is 17. That puts much of this scandal outside of the real legal trouble it could be. Where he had a misstep is that he paid to fly her out of State, which can be a Federal Charge but one mitigated by the local statute.

EDIT: the Age of consent in Florida is 18.

That is, unless he used campaign funds to fly her, which is a breach of fiduciary responsibility. That's a serious charge and exactly what got Duncan Hunter bounced out of Congress.

If the stories in the Orlando Sentinel are to be believed, and it looks like very thorough journalism there, it is Matt Gaetz's longtime political ally and close friend Joel Greenberg that really triggered much of this.

Greenberg was elected as the Seminole County Tax Collector and then went on a self indulgent rampage of graft and corruption that is frankly comical. Beyond his gross malfeasance there is a theme of sexual activities that rise to the level of Moral Turpitude. Gaetz seemed to be tied to that.

Basically these two were involved in some kind of Sugar Daddy/Sugar Baby set up where they were trading financial benefits to very young women in exchange for sex and companionship. This all falls into a legal gray area for regular citizens but not for politicians. Politicos have to track and categorize every expense, including gifts to girlfriends.

Gaetz does not seem like a guy that keeps track of his nonsense very well.

Pay to Play is a term that prosecutors use in relation to legislators who charge a fee for legislative assistance and relief. In the regular world we would call that a bribe but in politics it is again a gray area. This was a deliberate effort by politicians to make political bribery easier.

To do this, politicians have put myriad arcane conditions on how this process works. Also on how the proceeds of these monies can be used.

This is where Matt Gaetz is going to be in trouble. If he used this money to fly an underaged girl around the country for a sexual relationship he's in very serious trouble. The "donations" then become bribes and the proceeds of that were used to commit a Federal Crime.

It's worth noting that Matt Gaetz is the ONLY sitting member of Congress to vote against a human trafficking bill last session. He never gave a reason but now we know why.

He was trafficking an underaged girl at the time.

Gaetz went "all in" on Trump and has tried to parley that into political power with Trump out of the picture. That's made him enemies. His good buddy Greenberg is in very serious trouble, decades in prison trouble, meaning his lawyers are looking for an out. Complicating this is the very real possibility that Gaetz might have tried to intercede on Greenberg's behalf. He is on the Judiciary Committee.

According to two articles I've read AG William Barr was briefed on this Greenberg investigation, multiple times, and was avoiding Congressman Gaetz. He did not want to be photographed in the Congressman's presence.

That screams to me that either Gaetz has more serious problems than we know now or he was trying to intercede in this other associated investigation. It's also possible Gaetz was dumb enough to get involved in Greenberg's scams directly.

Gaetz might survive this but it doesn't look good.

Florida voters might be a little gun shy about sheltering another high profile politically connected guy with a relationship with very young girls. The whole Jeffrey Epstein thing is still fresh in their minds.

The Feds are certainly looking like they are not going to play with kids gloves when it comes to trafficking young women around the country, even if they are willing. The whole 2006 plea deal for Epstein stinks to high Heaven and looks corrupt. That's a black eye for Federal Law Enforcement. One they won't tolerate again soon.

Greenberg basically embezzled hundreds of thousands of dollars from Seminole County residents. That's in addition to his just frankly weird behaviors.

Ultimately Matt Gaetz is just an ass. His basic behavior is rude, crass and malicious. He feeds conspiracy theories and has accused multiple Federal Agencies of all kinds of malfeasance and incompetence. He enjoys grievance politics and has a weak grasp on policy and no understanding of bureaucracy.

To be blunt, he is very good at making enemies. He has very little political capital of his own and has rather operated inside of a clique of odious legislators with dangerous rhetoric. That group has basically operated on intimidation and strong arm tactics. Meaning he has real enemies inside of the GOP and absolutely no allies across the aisle.

So I reckon he is politically screwed and legally in real trouble.

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