{UAH} Can liberals win the next Canadian election?

Steven Haddock

At this point, they seem like a mortal lock.

This is from January, but the figures aren't too different now. Usually when the NDP creeps up to the 20% range, it's bad news for the Liberals, but it seems NDP support is more widespread and isn't really eating into Liberal support.

The Liberals are up about 2% from the last election, largely at the expense of the Conservatives, who are down 3%. The Conservatives have a new leader, Erin O'Toole, and, although he paints himself as a "moderate", most Canadians don't really see him that way, largely because the non-moderate elements of his own party keep ganging up on him. Just recently, O'Toole supported a motion accepting climate change as real. It was voted down. That's the kind of thing that Canadians, who widely believe in climate change, don't take kindly to.

Moreover, O'Toole's 30% support is misleading. He's down in the battleground provinces and his only real support increase is in Alberta. The bad news is that the Conservatives already hold all the seats in Alberta so getting more votes there doesn't help him at all.

As for the NDP, people really don't think much of their leader Jagmeet Singh. Even as an NDP supporter myself, I can see why. About the only point he's scored in the last five months is when he voted for a bill to create Canadian Pharmacare (which most Canadians support) which was defeated by the Liberal government which promised in the last election to create Canadian Pharmacare. However, mostly he's been complaining about Liberal performance without expressing any sort of alternative.

But at least he's doing better than O'Toole. O'Toole has been complaining mostly about government spending during the pandemic and that isn't going over very well. Government spending is what's keeping most people's heads above water at this point and O'Toole crying "increased deficits" keeps falling on deaf ears. Moreover, the feeling is that he's not really the "leader" of his party, just a pretty figurehead who must convince Canadians that although he's personally in favour of social equality he's going to let his MPs who are opposed to it actually vote on the legislation to remove it.

Meanwhile, Trudeau's been busy kicking the "austerity" elements out of his party. Minister of Finance Bill Morneau, the owner of a personnel business, is now out of politics and has been replaced by Chrystia Freeland, a former journalist who is probably the most popular Liberal in the country and is widely seen as the favourite to take over once Trudeau calls it quits. Even though Trudeau isn't personally popular (well, you love him or hate him) he's done an excellent job of building base support in the populous provinces and in keeping his MPs in check without being seen as dictatorial. O'Toole is widely seen as being unable to exercise discipline over his MPs (one of whom spouted QAnon conspiracies in Parliament).

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