{UAH} Allan/Pojim: ‘Earthquake’ hits OKA, ANC and Ford-K
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'Earthquake' hits OKA, ANC and Ford-K
Sunday, January 30, 2022
From Left: Ford Kenya leader Moses Wetang'ula, Deputy President William Ruto, ANC party leader Musalia Mudavadi and Jibebe Party leader William Kabogo at Bomas of Kenya on January 23, 2022 during ANC's National Delegates Conference.
The magnitude of an earthquake is measured by something called the Richter scale.
Opinion is divided on which tremor measured higher – the quake of the new alliance between Musalia Mudavadi and DP William Ruto or the seismic aftershocks that followed.
Those include the disintegration of the One Kenya Alliance (OKA) and the ongoing whirlwind of political realignments.
Quakes originate from geological cracks known as fault lines. OKA was all along sitting on several, politically speaking. The tectonic plates were misaligned, meaning the interests of the OKA principals were sooner or later going to clash.
The proprietary capture by Ruto of Mudavadi triggered the tremor. The epicentre of the earthquake, or rather the venue where everything cracked, was at Bomas during Mudavadi's ANC conference.
The immediate aftershock was the protest walkout by Kalonzo Musyoka and Gideon Moi. More seismic happenings are coming.
Ruto had led a powerful United Democratic Alliance (UDA) delegation to the function, totally overshadowing the presumptive host – Mudavadi.
The team comprised Ruto's insiders: Aden Duale, Kipchumba Murkomen, Oscar Sudi, Jackson Mandago, Johnson Muthama, Rigathi Gachagua, Anne Waiguru.
Many other UDA lights also tagged along: Ndindi Nyoro, Kimani Ichung'wa, Stephen Sang, Didmus Barasa, Alice Wahome. And more.
Friendly tip
Did Kalonzo and Moi know of the UDA invitation beforehand? It's possible. But rather than keep away from Bomas, they may have plotted to show up and stage their open public spectacle.
I would be surprised if they had been totally in the dark over UDA's plans, as they claimed. I would be even more surprised if the state was unaware of the UDA-ANC engagement from the moment it began.
I wonder if its agents hadn't dropped a friendly tip to the two gentlemen.
It was clear Ruto was the boss at the ANC event. It was him who made the announcement of the programme of the week's joint rallies – in Nakuru, Bungoma and Kiambu.
Other than Bungoma, these are areas the usually hidebound Mudavadi had barely made any campaign appearance in.
Riding on UDA's coattails, he had the good fortune on Wednesday to address in Nakuru the first real crowd he has encountered this election season. It left him quite excited.
Meanwhile, the earthquake's shock waves were convulsing Luhyaland. With fury. Broadly, the reaction there to Mudavadi's embrace of Ruto was negative. Something of a revolt against him and the ANC party was under way. And it was growing stronger by the day.
Bukhungu rally
Ever since the New Year's Eve Azimio rally at Kakamega's Bukhungu stadium organised by Cotu's Francis Atwoli, but more so subsequent to the disclosure of Mudavadi's deal with UDA, the ANC has been hit by an exodus of its MPs to the insurgent Democratic Action Party Kenya (DAP-K), the new kid on the block in Luhyaland fronted by Defence CS Eugene Wamalwa.
The key difference with DAP-K is that it firmly supports the Azimio movement of Raila Odinga.
The most badly overwhelmed by DAP-K's entry is Moses Wetang'ula's Ford Kenya. Wetang'ula had joined hands with Mudavadi in the tango with Ruto.
Capitalising on the backlash in the Western region against the UDA-ANC-Ford-K marriage, DAP-K has been aggressively harvesting the avalanche of defections of MPs and MCAs that Ford-K has suffered in its traditional turf of Bungoma and Trans Nzoia.
Among the defectors are Ford-K's only two governors – Bungoma's Patrick Wangamati and Trans Nzoia's Patrick Khaemba – who have opted to go with Azimio.
So has ANC's sole governor, Amos Nyario of Nyamira. At Bomas, he staged his own walkout after he realised he had been cheated that he'd be given one of the five slots of deputy party leader.
Even at the best of times, the parliamentary count of both ANC and Ford-K has been modest. DAP-K's ruthless assault on their numbers left them seriously gasping for air.
I wouldn't dispute the protestations that outfits like DAP-K could be "system-engineered". But aren't they merely exploiting a situation that was ripe for exploitation? And weren't Mudavadi and Wetang'ula casualties of their own making? Theirs was an earthquake that was going to leave debris. Plenty of it. Betrayal is a strong word. We are hearing a lot of it across Luhyaland lately.
Choices, consequences
One of the curious after-effects of the earthquake is the vicious jostling that has broken out in UDA over who will be Ruto's running mate.
The Mt Kenya Tangatangas who had been smug that this position was theirs could no longer sit pretty after Mudavadi was brought in. They could immediately see he is an ace card in this competition, and with his own independent party to boot.
Even if Ruto eventually picks a running mate from Mt Kenya, it's beyond dispute Mudavadi has the national profile the Rigathis, Ndindis, Wahomes and their fellow Mountain journeymen in UDA simply lack. By miles.
Mudavadi is perfectly right to say he is free to choose his friends. However, when he sets out to cut deals in the name of his people which they don't like, he must be ready to pay the price of the misadventure. Choices have consequences.
ANC officials have been engaging in the pretence that Mudavadi remains in the presidential race. Even after ANC was put in a wheelbarrow? That's preposterous.
How do you enter into a coalition as a junior partner and expect to call the shots? Or is that 'bottom-up' politics? The ANC folks are saying being in a coalition does not bar the principals from contesting.
Then what's the point of the joint campaign rallies? Will Ruto be campaigning for Mudavadi? And Mudavadi for Ruto? Come on, let's be real. We all know who's going to be the candidate.
Postscript: Wah! The anger towards Uhuru and Raila that Mudavadi is displaying is deep! The bitterness! Something very personal seems to be driving the guy. Tone it down, man, it's so unlike you.
gitauwarigi@yahoo
Democracy is two Wolves and a Lamb voting on what to have for lunch. Liberty is a well-armed Lamb disputing the results.
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