{UAH} RUSSIA HAS LOST THE PROPAGANDA WAR

RUSSIA HAS LOST THE  PROPAGANDA WAR

By Abbey Kibirige Semuwemba 

Propaganda has become important in anything important in the world.  In Uganda,  for instance,  FDC lost the propaganda war to NUP in 2018-21 campaigns, and the party is still suffering on the ground up to now. 

In the current Ukraine war, Russia lost the propaganda war to the west. For instance, most newspapers and bloggers in the west predicted Putin's death by June this year, and a lot of people actually believed them,such that I'm surprised that he is still alive up to now, (because the papers got in my brain, too).

If this were a war against a foreign invader like the Russians fought against Napoleon, the problem would solve itself. Kicking out unbidden guests requires no ideology, no explanation. But when you conquer foreign soil, you need to be as a pro in the ideas department as Stalin and Hitler were in WW2.

Totalitarian ideologies are like babies, you need time to incept and hatch them. It's an organic process that involves many people who often act at cross purposes.

Even if someone comes up with an insanely smart propaganda concept now for Russia, the war would be over by the time it takes to wings.

I also think that easy capture of Crimea in 2014, and resistance to the Ukrainian reabsorption in greater part of Donbass, might've given Putin false impression that this is how it's going to be with the rest of Ukraine, similar to what Germans might've thought of their upcoming Russian campaign based on the Red Army's lackluster performance only a year earlier in the Winter War with Finland.

Few things Putin failed to take into account:

1. First, the relative element of surprise in 2014.

2. Crimea is 70% ethnic Russian, Donbass is about 50% ethnic Russian, while in the rest of Ukraine including in Eastern Ukraine ethnic Russians are in much greater minority - 10–20% no more, let alone in Western Ukraine where ethnic Russians are in low single digits.

3. Zelensky, who didn't run away like he was expected to, but remained and began playing active role in mobilizing and coordinating the resistance, thus, providing huge motivating boost for the Ukrainians to resist.

All that said and done,  the Ukraine president is better of negotiating with Putin now, before his country is turned into  a dessert. Things are going to get harder for Ukrainians as we move deeper into winter. Russia has destroyed most of the power centres in Ukraine.

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