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Finnish officer: "Wishful thinking that Ukraine wins the war"

PUBLISHED MARCH 3, 2023

 - BY MARKUS ANDERSSON

Photo: Ministry of Defense of Ukraine/CC BY-SA 2.0

Ukrainian soldiers carry out operations against pro-Russian separatists in 2014.

A high-ranking Finnish officer on the ground in Ukraine believes that the image of the war spread in the Western mass media is primarily based on Ukrainian propaganda. The reality, he believes, is that the Ukrainian military is inferior in several respects and that it is "wishful thinking" from the West to be able to win over Russia.

- The Russian forces have learned from their mistakes, the same cannot be said about the Ukrainian ones, says the officer, who wants to remain anonymous because of his rank, to the Finnish state channel Yle .

- The Ukrainians think they are skilled soldiers. But you don't make a good soldier by lying scared in a trench for eight months. What is required is education , he continues.

The officer started training Ukrainian soldiers back in 2014 and believes that the soldiers' level of education leaves much to be desired - and he also does not believe that Ukraine will win the war - which is the leading narrative pushed by politicians and mass media in the West.

- It is nothing but wishful thinking , he says.

Among other things, the military leadership in Ukraine is described as "very bad" and the same also applies to the tactics and combat techniques used, which are often claimed to have been taken from computer games. According to the officer, the fact that they have been able to withstand the Russian offensive so well so far is not mainly due to their own skill - but to the fact that Russia made major strategic mistakes.

- A Ukrainian offensive is always a movement on a broad front. They are unable to quickly open a breach in the front.

Dark losses

He notes that the war has developed into a "positioning war" with extensive artillery shelling instead of rapid movements - and that even though both Ukraine and Russia have suffered heavy losses, Ukraine has far fewer reserve troops to call in.

The Finnish officer is also convinced that the Ukrainian losses have been significantly greater than reported and that they have about the same number of dead and wounded as the Russian side - something that is not sustainable in the long run.

According to the man, the fact that the Ukrainian army has succeeded in retaking many of the areas previously occupied by Russia is due to "luck" and Russian mistakes, and believes that Ukraine may soon be on the way to losing the war as a whole.

- It looks as if Russia has the initiative. One could almost say that Ukraine is losing the war if nothing decisive happens soon.

He also does not believe that Ukraine is capable of conquering the Crimean Peninsula and probably not even Donbass.

- If Kiev manages to get to the front line that existed when the war started, it would be a deterrent victory... Russia is not losing this war because it is a nuclear power. If Ukraine launches a major offensive against Crimea, it is likely that Russia will resort to strategic nuclear weapons.

His guess is instead that the war will end with Ukraine being forced to cede land to Russia.

- It would not be the end of Ukraine's independence, but the border would be moved. You have to accept that, just like us in Finland after the winter war.

"The media listens kindly to the Ukrainian propaganda"

Regarding the mass media coverage of the war, the officer believes that the population in the West is only allowed to take part in Ukrainian narratives and believes that "the media listens kindly to the Ukrainian propaganda".

- Prime Minister Marin says that the war will end when Russia withdraws from Ukraine, but that will not happen, he notes and adds that "the Ukrainians have not succeeded in forcing the Russians' defensive positions anywhere".

If Ukraine is to be able to win the war, he continues, the most important thing is that their soldiers receive better training - and preferably Finnish training, the officer believes.

- Finland's army has the world's best training in the art of war against Russia. We've trained for a hundred years, and also fought twice... No one else has as broad a knowledge of forests and terrain as we in Finland, and that's what should be taught.

He believes that training of this type would not cost a lot of money and that many Finns would be happy to volunteer.

- It hurts to see when poorly trained soldiers are sent to the front, and when they return in coffins, that's why I'm still here in Ukraine - to provide better training.

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