{UAH}

CLEAR WESTERN ALLIES' SUPPORT

FOR UKRAINE WAR IS WANING

By Ocaya p'Ocure, a social media commentator, Uppsala, Sweden

 

It was evident that international politics of the cold war era died a natural death with the fall of the Berlin wall on November 9, 1989, leaving the world with only the Chinese wall. Thus, in 2021, the world expected the new US President, Joe Biden, to pursue new foreign and national policies consistent with the post-cold war era but not the populist "Make America Great Again", policies of former President Donald Trump. One of the key features of the Trump policies, popularly known as MAGA, was to erect a new wall on the Mexican-US border to keep migrants from entering the USA. However, President Biden was soon drawn into the Ukraine-Russia war, thereby rekindling policies towards Russia which are reminiscent of the cold war era.

At the beginning of the war, the USA and its European allies strongly supported Ukraine in defending itself against the Russian invasion. However, after spending billions of dollars for humanitarian, economic and military purposes, both sides have failed to achieve the quick victory they anticipated. Moreover, people are now fed up with President Putin's constant threat of using nuclear bombs to achieve victory.

Meanwhile, the cost of living rose during the COVID-19 pandemic and has remained high. Consequently, Americans and Europeans are increasingly demanding a negotiated end of the ego-driven destructive war by peaceful negotiation. Recognizing the stalemate and the adverse effects of the war beyond the borders of the combating nations, many world leaders sought to elevate their international prestige by hoping to mediate the conflict successfully. Notable among them are Macron of France, Xi Jinping of China, Erdogan of Turkey, and more recently the African Union represented by leaders from Zambia, Senegal, Republic of Congo, Uganda and Egypt. So far, all previous efforts failed and the latest AU offer to mediate the conflict will most likely also fail because the potential mediators of the conflict are like elephants who cannot mediate an end of a fight to save the grass underneath the fighters' feet.

According to the elephant analogy cited above, President Biden is right to assert that only Ukraine can decide when to negotiate with Russia, but he is wrong because unlike the non-combatants elephants, the Western allies are not just onlookers but are integral parts of one side of the fighters. Ukraine would not have lasted so long without the support of the Western allies. Therefore, it may take catastrophic events to alter the course of the war. For example, the US government is on the verge of defaulting on its $31.4 trillion debt unless Congress raises the debt limit to allow the government to borrow more money to meet its obligations. Though the ongoing negotiation between the Democrats and the Republicans to raise the US government debt limit sounds optimistic, failure to do so may just become the game changer in forcing the antagonists to head to the negotiation table.

The support for Ukraine by the USA and its allies may also be affected by the growing interest in creating an alternative monetary reserve system by a group of 21 countries including Russia, China, India, Brazil, South Africa and others, if it becomes a strong competitor of the USA dollar for international trade. Even in Europe, the strong unity is beginning to show cracks. Hungarian leader Victor Orban wants the sanctions against Russia lifted by early 2023 to save Europe's economies from a recession. His view is that the sanctions contributed to a global economic war that led to increased inflation and sharply increased energy prices. The question is how far Orban is prepared to push through his demand. All EU sanctions require unanimity among the 27 member states. If Hungary refuses to agree to the extension of the sanctions, they will fall. Another concern is about the new government in Italy, which consists of parties far to the right. Prime Minister Giorgi Meloni, of the post-fascist Brothers of Italy party promises continued support for Ukraine, but both of her coalition partners are friends with Putin and prefer sanctions against Russia to be lifted. Macron of France preferred a negotiated settlement.

Of course, Vladimir Putin is constantly trying to create cracks in the united front of the West to get the West to end its military and financial support for Ukraine. He has been doing this by trying to renew the defunct USSR allies in Africa, Asia and South America. As a result, some of the countries chose to remain neutral or not to condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine at the UN meeting. The US and the EU are walking an increasingly difficult balance between preventing a Russian victory in Ukraine by continuing to support Ukraine at a non-sustainable level and facing their respective angry citizens who are increasingly opposed to supporting Ukraine while their wellbeing may soon fall off the cliff. Source: Nile Journal at nilejournal.net.

 

 

 

 

 

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