{UAH} WHY ARAB AMERICANS NARROWLY FAVOUR TRUMP

New Poll Showing Trump Ahead With Arab Americans Spells Trouble for Harris in Key States Like Michigan

A new poll showing former President Donald Trump slightly ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris with Arab Americans spells trouble, as discontent with the ongoing war threatens to upend the margins in key states.

By Aneeta Mathur-Ashton

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Oct. 22, 2024, at 5:20 p.m.

Why Arab Americans Narrowly Favor Trump

Evan Vucci|AP

A supporter takes a photo as Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump visits a campaign office in Hamtramck, Mich., on Oct. 18.

A new poll showing former President Donald Trump with a slight edge among Arab American voters is spelling trouble for the Harris campaign as it seeks to shore up support before the election.

The Arab News/YouGov survey released Monday shows 45% of respondents saying they would most likely vote for Trump and 43% saying they would vote for Harris.

Thirty-nine percent of respondents also said the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas would most likely be solved by Trump, while only 33% said that Harris could end it. However, Trump was seen by respondents as more supportive of the current Israeli administration, while Harris was seen as more sensitive to the needs of Arab Americans.

The results echo another survey released by the Arab American Institute earlier this month that showed Trump with 42% of support from the community and Harris with 41%.

The poll comes as both campaigns hit the crucial swing state of Michigan, which is home to the largest Arab and Middle Eastern community outside that region, and as the current crisis continues to turn off some Democratic voters.

Since April, Trump has held 15 events in the state, making a visit to Hamtramck, one of the country’s only Muslim-majority cities, on Oct. 18 just weeks after getting an endorsement from its Democratic mayor.

Meanwhile, a visit to Detroit last Saturday marked Harris’ 11th trip to Michigan, according to tracking by The Associated Press. She has also collected endorsements from three city council members in Hamtramck.

As Harris campaigned Monday with former Republican Rep. Liz Cheney in three battleground states, including Michigan, Trump made a direct appeal to Arab Americans, writing on his Truth Social site that the region will “spend the next four decades going up in flames” if Harris is elected.

Democratic strategists and analysts have been worried for months over the war’s potential effect on margins in key states like Michigan that have traditionally gone for Democrats.

Before he exited the race in July, analysts were particularly worried about President Joe Biden’s chances of reelection, given the steep opposition from some far-left Democrats to his stance on Israel and to some of his controversial remarks – like casting doubt on the death toll reported by the Hamas-run Ministry of Health in Gaza.

A poll released in May that was commissioned by the Arab American Institute found Biden’s support among the group in Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Virginia was less than 20%, marking a sharp decline from the 60% with which he won the 2020 election. Meanwhile, Trump’s numbers – one-third – remained the same.

Despite the Arab American Insitutute’s relatively small estimation of around 3.7 million Arab Americans living in the U.S., the community has consistently remained a vital voting bloc in key swing states.

The impact of the bloc was first felt among Democrats during this year’s primary season when Biden faced opposition from the “uncommitted” movement made up of pro-Palestinian activists dissatisfied with his handling of the war. As the movement gains traction in key states like Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin, with third-party candidate Jill Stein gaining enough ground support, some analysts worry about a potential spoiler effect.

While Harris’ numbers with Arab Americans are better than Biden’s, giving analysts some hope that the margins in states like Michigan won’t be as devastating, many in the community warn they are still on the fence.

Edward Ahmed Mitchell, a board member of the Council on American-Islamic Relations Action, says a combination of factors like not expressing a willingness to impose an arms embargo on Israel or not explaining how she would force Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to agree to a cease-fire has “led to a situation in which a large chunk of the Muslim community and the Arab community and other communities are still hesitant to vote for Harris, despite all the issues with President Trump.”

“Vice President Harris’ failure – or you could even say refusal – to distinguish the substance of her position on Gaza and the Middle East from the substance of President Biden's position has been a huge anchor around her neck,” Mitchell adds.

He says that in order to turn around the numbers so close to the election, the Harris campaign needs to explain how she plans to force Netanyahu to accept a cease-fire as well as an arms embargo.

“If that announcement is made, I think you would see a change in voting patterns of American Muslims, Arab Americans, as well as young people, Black people and others who are deeply frustrated.”

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