{UAH} KAMALA HARRIS PREDICTED TO WIN BY NEARLY EVERY MAJOR FORECASTER

Kamala Harris Predicted to Win By Nearly Every Major Forecaster

Published Nov 05, 2024 at 12:06 PM EST Updated Nov 06, 2024 at 12:17 AM EST

By Martha McHardy

US News Reporter

As polls open, Vice President Kamala Harris is predicted to win the election by almost every major forecaster.

Nate Silver's latest forecast now gives Harris a slight edge in the Electoral College, projecting her with a 50 percent chance of victory compared to former President Donald Trump's 49.6 percent. The model shows Harris securing 271 Electoral College votes to Trump's 267.

This marks a shift from Silver's earlier predictions, where Trump held a narrow advantage. On Monday, Silver's forecast favored Trump with a 50.4 percent chance to Harris's 49.2 percent, and the day prior, Trump had a 52.6 percent likelihood of winning to Harris's 47 percent.

Other aggregators echo the close race but similarly give Harris a small advantage. FiveThirtyEight currently projects her with a 50 percent chance of winning, forecasting 270 Electoral College votes for Harris to Trump's 268.

Meanwhile, U.K. newspaper The Economist predicts that Harris will win 276 votes to Trump's 262—a scenario also reflected by forecaster Larry Sabato. Race to the White House predicts she will win 275 electoral votes.

Her largest win is predicted by CNanalysis, which forecasts that the vice president will win 308 Electoral College votes to Trump's 230, giving Harris a 70 percent of winning.

The only forecasters that show Trump is predicted to win are DecisionDeskHQ, which shows that Trump is projected to win 276 votes to Harris' 262, and J.L. Partners, which shows the former president will win 287 Electoral College votes to Harris' 251. DecisionDeskHQ shows Trump has a 54 percent chance of winning, while J.L. Partners shows he has a 60 percent chance of winning.

Newsweek has contacted the Harris and Trump campaigns for comment via email.

Since Harris became the Democratic nominee for president in late July, polls have been close, with Harris taking the lead for most of August and September, but at the beginning of October, the vice president saw her chances plunge as Trump made gains in crucial battleground states. Since then, the race has been virtually tied.

Recent polls show the candidates within just 1 and 2 points of each other. For example, AtlasIntel's latest poll, conducted between November 3 and 4, shows that Trump is leading by 1 point, while Research Co.'s latest poll, conducted between November 2 and 3, shows Harris ahead by 2 points.

In both polls, the candidate's lead is within the margin of error. Harris and Trump are also within 1 and 2 points of each other in every swing state, according to FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver.

Overall, FiveThirtyEight's tracker puts Harris ahead by 1.2 points, while Silver's tracker puts her ahead by 1 point, demonstrating how narrow the margins are in this election.

"When I say the odds in this year's presidential race are about as close as you can possibly get to 50/50, I'm not exaggerating," Silver wrote in his most recent newsletter.

But FiveThirtyEight warned that although the polls are close, this does not necessarily mean the overall result will be close.

"A close race in the polls does not necessarily mean the outcome will be close," the pollsters wrote on their website.

Since 1998, election polls in U.S. presidential, House, Senate, and governor races have typically missed the final vote margin by about 6 points on average, according to FiveThirtyEight's analysis.

For example, in 2020, polls showed President Joe Biden with a strong lead over then President Trump. Just before the election, Biden led by 8.4 points in FiveThirtyEight's average. He ultimately won the popular vote by less than 4.5 points—just enough for an Electoral College victory.

Similarly, in 2016, FiveThirtyEight gave Hillary Clinton a 71 percent chance of winning, but she ultimately lost the Electoral College despite winning the popular vote.

Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris at a campaign rally outside the Philadelphia Museum of Art, Monday, Nov. 4, 2024, in Philadelphia. Kamala Harris is ahead, according to most election forecasters. Jacquelyn Martin/AP

Scott Keeter, senior fellow at the Pew Research Center, told Newsweek this week that polls in 2020 and 2016 were inaccurate because Trump supporters opt out of surveys due to distrust in institutions like the mainstream media and polling organizations.

However, in the 2022 midterms, polling errors averaged only 4.8 points, marking the most precise cycle in 25 years. If this cycle's polls miss by a similar margin, the resulting impact could be decisive.

For instance, if polls are underestimating Harris by 4.8 points in the seven key swing states, she would win each of them, amassing 319 electoral votes to Trump's 219. Conversely, if polls are underestimating Trump by that same amount, he would sweep the battleground states and secure 312 electoral votes.

Experts believe polling will be more accurate this year, as adjustments now better account for likely Trump supporters who were previously underrepresented in the polls.

"Many pollsters today are using past vote [history] to correct for the Trump undercount," Cliff Young, the president of Ipsos polling, previously told Newsweek.