{UAH} Pojim/WBK: Cabinet reshuffle: the election maths
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Cabinet reshuffle: the election maths
Do more ministers in a region mean more votes for Museveni?
The composition of the new cabinet has drawn mixed public reactions. Clearly, President Museveni made the reshuffle with an eye on the 2016 elections. That partly explains why some regions got more ministerial slots than others.
For instance, one of the outstanding features of the new cabinet is the fact that Kigezi subregion, the home area of former Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi, now has 10 ministers. Prior to the 2011 elections, Kigezi had six ministers as per the last cabinet reshuffle of February 2009.
Yet the key questions are: Does a higher number of ministers in a given sub-region guarantee a higher election return for President Museveni?
Or is the opposite necessarily true?
If the answer to the first question is yes, how many votes does each minister contribute on average?
In an effort to answer these questions, The Observer undertook a mathematical analysis of President Museveni's votes in the last presidential elections by looking at how the various sub-regions voted, vis-à-vis the number of ministers from those particular sub-regions. Our analysis focused on 14 sub-regions (Buganda, Bunyoro, Tooro, Ankole, Kigezi, Rwenzori, Busoga, Bugisu, Teso, Bukedi, Lango, Acholi, West Nile and Karamoja).
Our findings reveal that more ministers from a sub-region do not necessarily translate into a higher return on votes. For instance in Tooro, Museveni polled 331,691 votes and since there were two ministers from the sub-region, this means that on average each wooed 165,845 voters.
Similarly, in Lango sub-region which also had two ministers, Museveni got 297,441 votes, meaning that each minister contributed at least 148,720 votes for him.
On the surface, this is a better vote per minister ratio return for Museveni compared with Buganda where he got 1,428,954 votes (which translates into 89,309 votes for each of the 16 ministers) or Ankole where he scored 702,458 votes (which means each of the 10 ministers got Museveni 70,245 voters).
It however has to be noted that the ratios could have been obscured by the fact that Buganda and Ankole have much bigger voting populations than Tooro and Lango. That is why sometimes the number of ministerial slots allocated to a region is likely to be tied to the number of voters per sub-region.
More voters represent a better chance of a healthier election return, our analysis shows.
Below is the breakdown of our findings.
NUMBER OF MINISTERS PER SUB-REGION AS AT 2011
By the time elections were held in February 2011, Ankole sub-region where President Museveni hails from had 10 ministers, Buganda had 16 while Kigezi had six ministers.
Tooro sub-region had two, Bunyoro had three ministers and Busoga had nine ministers. Teso sub-region had two ministers, Bugisu had three, Acholi sub-region had two, West Nile five and Karamoja sub-region two. Bukedi/Sebei sub-region had five slots; Lango sub-region had two slots whereas Rwenzori sub-region had two ministers in the then cabinet.
MINISTERS VS SUB-REGION VOTE RATIO IN 2011
Buganda
In Buganda sub-region, the president got 1,428,954 votes. This means that on average, each of the 16 ministers fetched 89,309 votes for Museveni, a decent return.
Ankole
In his home sub-region, Museveni scored 702,458 votes, which translates into 70,245 votes for each of the 10 ministers.
Tooro
Museveni, the incumbent then, polled 331,691 from Tooro sub-region which had two ministers, meaning that they wooed 165,845 voters each.
Kigezi
In 2011 Museveni got 342,881 votes in Kigezi sub-region. Given that it had six ministers, it means that on average each minister contributed 57,146 votes.
Bunyoro
In Bunyoro sub-region which had three ministers, Museveni got 338,141 votes, meaning that one minister fetched at least 112,713 for the incumbent.
Busoga
With eight ministers, President Museveni got 533,084 votes from Busoga sub-region, meaning that one minister fetched him 66,635.
Teso
With its two ministers, Teso sub-region gave Museveni 167,346 votes, meaning that each of their ministers weighed in with 83, 673 votes.
Bugisu
Museveni gave this region three ministers and he got 243,400 votes in the end. So on average, each of them earned him 81,133 votes.
Karamoja
With its two ministerial slots, Karamoja sub-region gave Museveni 102,497 votes during the 2011 elections, meaning that each of the ministers delivered 51, 248 voters.
Acholi
Acholi sub-region which had two slots in cabinet by the 2011 elections gave Museveni 110,331 votes, meaning each minister delivered at least 55,165 votes.
West Nile
West Nile, which had regularly voted for the opposition, this time gave Museveni more votes than his challenger FDC's Dr Kizza Besigye. The president got 230,070 votes here, meaning that each of the five ministers mobilised on average 46,014 votes.
Bukedi/Sebei
This sub-region had five slots in cabinet and gave 199,638 votes to President Museveni, meaning that each minister from Bukedi weighed in with at least 39,927 votes.
Lango
By the 2011 elections, Lango sub-region had two ministers and it gave President Museveni 297,441 votes, meaning that each minister fetched at least 148,720 votes for him on average.
Rwenzori
It had two ministers and it gave Museveni 107,188 votes which is 53,594 votes per minister.
ekiggundu@observer.ug
walusimbideo@gmail.com
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http://www.observer.ug/news-headlines/36638-cabinet-reshuffle-the-election-maths
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