{UAH} How Museveni, rebel MPs meet was hatched -mbu NRM is not panicking

How Museveni, rebel MPs meet was hatched

Written by Sadab Kitatta Kaaya

Last Updated: 01 July 2015

Some of the rebel MPs Theodore Ssekikubo and Muhammad Nsereko

The adage that politics has neither permanent friends nor permanent enemies will be on the minds of many today, as President Museveni meets four MPs  expelled from the NRM.

Sources have told The Observer that at State House Entebbe, Museveni will invite  MPs Theodore Ssekikubo (Lwemiyaga), Wilfred Niwagaba (Ndorwa East), Barnabas Tinkasiimire (Buyaga West) and Muhammad Nsereko (Kampala Central) back into the ruling party.

According to our sources, Museveni's overtures towards the expelled MPs come after the president's political rival, Amama Mbabazi, started warming up to the legislators. The meeting comes four weeks after Mbabazi officiated as chief guest at a wedding of MP Tinkasiimire.

Ironically, Mbabazi oversaw the controversial quartet's expulsion in April 2013, while he was NRM secretary general before he, too, was booted out of his position in December 2014.

Sources further told The Observer that the MPs have already had a series of informal engagements with the president and other NRM leaders, notably caucus vice chairman Peter Ogwang, Justice and Constitutional Affairs Minister Kahinda Otafiire, and an Army MP, Maj Sarah Mpabwa.

Museveni's press secretary Tamale Mirundi last evening confirmed the meeting was on, adding that the political landscape had changed,  and the rebel MPs now realised that Museveni was here to stay.

"Besides, they never defected to any other party; they remained in no-man's land; so there is nothing wrong with them reconciling with the president," Mirundi said by telephone.

Pressed for details, Mirundi only said the meeting was arranged by a senior minister.

STRATEGIC ALLIANCE

Insiders say the Museveni U-turn has more to do with Mbabazi than with some newly-discovered intrinsic value in the four MPs. The real possibility of Mbabazi joining the opposition is bad enough, but the possibility of him linking up with other NRM rebels outside the ruling party is not something the NRM would like to see.

Museveni's NRM will be in a better position to take on Mbabazi if the former prime minister is isolated as a lone-ranger rather than a leader of some kind of splinter group within NRM.

If Museveni needed a signal that a Mbabazi-rebel MPs alliance was a possibility, the former minister's surprise appearance as chief guest at Tinkasiimire's recent wedding was enough.

Soon after that, Wilfred Niwagaba appeared at a rally addressed by Museveni in Kabale but unlike in the past where the president would have openly criticized the MP and asked voters to reject him for rebelling against NRM, this time Museveni was cordial towards Niwagaba, signaling a change in attitude.     

MISTAKE

Efforts by the party chairperson to reconcile with the four MPs are said to have been initiated by Ogwang (Youth Eastern) who reportedly told Museveni at the beginning of May that the party needed to work with the expelled MPs. Ogwang is understood to have told Museveni that the party was making a mistake in keeping away the MPs whom he described as "resourceful, useful and intelligent young legislators."

To galvanise his efforts, Ogwang called a press conference last month during which he criticised NRM secretary general Justine Kasule Lumumba for blocking the MPs from registering as party members during the recently concluded "fresh" registration exercise of NRM supporters.

In weeks that followed, Museveni reportedly variously contact the MPs by phone or through emissaries such as Mpabwa, who is known to be friends with the quartet. In fact, it is Mpabwa who delivered the final invitation for the talks on June 23. Initially, the president had wanted the meeting to take place last week. But according to Ssekikubo and Tinkasiimire, they declined a hastily arranged meeting because they needed to consult.

COURT CASES

The quartet was expelled from the party in April 2013 after the ruling party's disciplinary committee found them guilty of breaching Rule 4 of the NRM constitution. The rule bars NRM members from forming cliques/factions within the ruling party, or promoting the interests of any foreign power, political party or institution.

After their expulsion, a protracted legal battle ensued as the MPs moved to block the decisions. Consequently, there are currently two court cases; the first, in the High court, to challenge their expulsion from NRM, and the second in the Supreme Court against the constitutional court's ruling that would require them to lose their parliamentary seats.

The court cases are expected to form part of today's negotiations, although Tinkasiimire told The Observer that they can agree to an out-of-court settlement of the High court case but not that of the Supreme court.

"[The Supreme court case] touches matters of law. We want the judges to pronounce themselves on it because it has already been concluded and is awaiting judgement," Tinkasiimire said.

Interviewed separately, Ssekikubo said, issues relating to the court cases will be agreed upon after their lawyers have interfaced with NRM lawyers and the Attorney General.

"We shall look at what is feasible and agree because matters relating to the cases cannot be resolved just like that," Ssekikubo said.

MPs' DEMANDS

The Observer has learnt that the MPs are carrying to the meeting a list of demands that they want Museveni to meet before they can agree to a new working relationship with NRM. For instance, they want NRM to unconditionally withdraw the charges that it had placed against them which led to their 2013 expulsion.

"We were expelled because of our advocacy which was about [improved] service delivery, better salaries for health workers, teachers, police, army and other lower cadre public servants," Tinkasiimire said.

The MPs also want the president to meet the pledges he made to their constituents but have remained unfulfilled to-date. Additionally, they want a return to the original NRM constitution that provides for the election of key party leaders at the secretariat, rather than appointments by the party chairman.

"We also want the president to allow the succession debate in the party because, if you look at the way they are reacting to Mbabazi's [declaration], it is not the best [approach]," Tinkasiimire said.

The Buyaga West MP said they are also likely to attempt to ask Museveni, who has served for nearly 30 years, not to seek the presidency for another five years in the 2016 general elections. Although he admitted that these are some of the issues that they intend to put to Museveni, Ssekikubo added that they had not harmonised their positions.

"If there is a genuine spirit to invite us for talks, let us first interface, and once there [in NRM], we can begin to make the demands," Ssekikubo said.

The MPs said they want well-structured talks in the presence of their lawyers as opposed to a private tête-à-tête with Museveni.

"We have never feared to talk, and if other people are talking, why not us? The important thing here is not fear to talk but [don't] talk out of fear," Ssekikubo said.

Ssekikubo also said that they are going to State House mindful of Museveni's "guerrilla tactics" of wanting to engage them in talks while at the same time plotting other clandestine schemes against them.

"Even when they were plotting to expel us, he engaged us but at the same time moved on with his schemes. We know him, and we also know that it is not easy to deal with a guerrilla," Ssekikubo said.

He added that although their hearts are open to talks, the four MPs are "not blinded to the fact that they may fail."

sadabkk@observer.ug

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