{UAH} Pojimm/WBK: Besigye candidacy a double-edged sword

http://www.observer.ug/viewpoint/38567-besigye-candidacy-a-double-edged-sword

Besigye candidacy a double-edged sword

Written by MOSES KHISA

Last Updated: 03 July 2015

No one has singularly redefined and reshaped Uganda's politics of the last 15 years more than Dr Kizza Besigye.

His courageous decision to contest against General Museveni in 2001 laid bare the hollowness of the 'Movement democracy'. The way the entire NRM establishment reacted to Besigye's candidature showed that individual merit, the supposed key principle of no-party/Movement politics, was practically a myth.

There has been a dearth of national leaders, especially in opposition, of Besigye's caliber: strong-willed, selfless, and spirited. For stubbornly and consistently standing up to an authoritarian ruler, Besigye has had to pay heavy personal costs, including the death of his younger brother.

For his unwavering courage and principled stance against the decadent regime of General Museveni, Besigye has endeared himself to millions of Ugandans yearning for an end to a corrupt and deeply-incompetent government built on patronage and not performance. Thus, he remains by far the most popular opposition figure who, on any day, can easily defeat any other contender to lead a united opposition front.

Since after the 2011 elections, Besigye has insisted that he would not participate in another fraudulent election, organized, supervised, and controlled by the incumbent – Mr Museveni. He has consistently argued that another electoral ritual, without far-reaching electoral reforms to guarantee free and fair competition, would be nothing more than escorting Museveni to an illegal and illegitimate victory.

On the face of it, the call for electoral reforms is an apt proposition and legitimate demand. But looked at from the practical realities of the day, it is nonstarter. In practice, it would mean that General Museveni will reform himself out of power!

Knowing the intransigence and arrogance of the NRM regime, it is trifle too optimistic to expect fundamental reforms necessary for free and fair elections. Such reforms can only happen after defeating Museveni, in spite of the un-free and unfair political environment and legal regime.

Now, on Monday, news emerged that Besigye had picked nomination forms to contest for flag bearer of the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), the leading opposition party which Besigye helped found ten years ago.

If this development holds, it means that Besigye will, for the third time, take on his long-time comrade, Maj Gen Mugisha Muntu, to win the FDC presidential election  flag, and, for the fourth time, confront Uganda's Sabalwanyi (chief fighter) in the race for the nation's topmost job.

Let's recall that after the 2011 elections, Besigye decided to step down from the leadership of FDC. This earned him a moral high ground. Officially, this was meant to accord the next party president enough time to prepare the party for the 2016 elections.

Unofficially, Besigye was reported to have lost interest in organized party politics in favour of street activism and popular defiance.

Since handing over to Muntu three years ago, Besigye has for the most part stayed at arm's length from FDC. Should he win the race for FDC flag bearer and that of The Democratic Alliance (TDA), and my hunch is that he will, Besigye's candidature will present double-edged implications for three sets of players: himself, his party, and the opposition.

At a personal level, it will mean that Museveni's most formidable opponent will step forward and, once again, demonstrate that he is willing to take on the herculean task of challenging an entrenched ruler.

His decision to run has likely resulted, in part, from repeated urging by colleagues and supporters, and the realization that boycott is the sure way to endorsing the unabated continuation of an authoritarian regime. The flipside, however, is that Besigye will have a tough job responding to skeptics. A key question will be: what he will do this time round that he didn't in 2001, 2006, and 2011.

Second, for his party, it means that FDC will have its most potent candidate whose name resonates resoundingly across the width and breadth of the country. The party will leverage from his candidature to get reenergized and shake off the, rather, pervasive yet potentially-wrong sentiment that, under the leadership of Muntu, the party has lost momentum and has been gradually 'dying'.

The downside is the likely deepening of an existing rift in FDC, pitting on the one hand Besigye's fanatic supporters and, on the other, a section of the party that believes his style of leadership has not delivered victory and that it's time to give a chance to another candidate.

Finally, for opposition politics, in Besigye, TDA will have a candidate who already commands a big following, and can build on his existing base to mount a serious challenge against Museveni.

On the other hand, Besigye's candidature will give the unfortunate impression that just as NRM can't look beyond Museveni, the opposition remains unable to think beyond Besigye. This will hand the NRM apparatchiks the stick with which to easily beat the opposition.

Kizza Besigye will likely go down as arguably the most important Ugandan politician of his generation who didn't occupy State House. For this very reason, if I were him, I would have completely ruled myself out of 2016. But then, that is why I am a student of politics, and not a politician!
moses.khisa@gmail.com

The author is a PhD candidate and teaching assistant at the department of Political Science, Northwestern University, USA.

Besigye candidacy a double-edged sword

http://www.observer.ug/viewpoint/38567-besigye-candidacy-a-double-edged-sword

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