{UAH} Pojim/WBK: Besigye faces FDC MPs revolt

http://www.observer.ug/news-headlines/40133-besigye-faces-fdc-mps-revolt

Besigye faces FDC MPs revolt

Written by Sadab Kitatta Kaaya

Last Updated: 28 September 2015

Kizza Besigye and Leader of Opposition Wafula Oguttu

The Forum for Democratic Change's decision to field Dr Kizza Besigye as presidential candidate could hurt the party, after some of its MPs pledged to back former premier Amama Mbabazi.

The Observer understands that at least 15 FDC MPs are working closely with Mbabazi's Go Forward pressure group. Mbabazi is also backed by other MPs, such as those that united under the Ssuubi group in the 2011 election that promoted Besigye's candidature because they were opposed to Norbert Mao's election as DP president.

Out of the 71 opposition MPs in the ninth Parliament, Besigye is sure of the support of nine: Odonga Otto (Aruu), Roland Mugume Kaginda (Rukungiri Municipality) Jack Sabiiti (Rukiga) and William Nzoghu (Busongora North).

Others are Nathan Nandala-Mafabi (Budadiri West), Odo Tayebwa (Bushyenyi-Ishaka Municipality), Geoffrey Ekanya (Tororo) and Wafula Oguttu (Leader of Opposition in Parliament).

On the other hand, Mbabazi is sure of the support of at least 30 MPs, notable among them is Shadow minister for Justice and Constitutional affairs Medard Lubega Sseggona (Busiro East), shadow Attorney general Abdu Katuntu (Bugweri), Francis Epetait (Ngora County), Kassiano Wadri (Terego), Beatrice Atim Anywar (Kitgum Woman), and Mathias Mpuuga (Masaka Municipality) and FDC vice president (East) Alice Alaso, among others.

Kitgum Woman MP Beatrice Anywar, who said her constituents intend to support Mbabazi, said Dr Besigye practiced double standards during the TDA search for a joint candidate.

"I am very disappointed that we play double standards and we have not stuck to the principles we agreed on. My confusion right now is that if my flag bearer, Dr Besigye, went there with the mandate of the party, if he is withdrawing, have those organs been consulted? Have we been given the explanation of why you are withdrawing and going alone? Is it the party which has withdrawn or an individual?" she asked.

Anywar said she was drawn towards Mbabazi's candidature.

"Personally, I think it will only take Museveni's close friend to topple him. The person who knows him better is the one who can beat him. You can only subdue your enemy if you get closer to the person. If you keep your distance, you are not giving him hope, you are just telling him you are waiting to take him to Luzira, he will die in the chair," she said.

Anywar said many of the MPs who backed Muntu's candidature against Besigye in the party flag bearer race in August were drawn towards Mbabazi because of the mistreatment they suffered at the hands of FDC Secretary General Nandala-Mafabi, a staunch Besigye supporter. Mafabi and Muntu still don't see eye-to-eye since their acrimonious fight for the party's presidency.

Ngora MP Epetait, who led Muntu's campaign team, told The Observer that he had not joined Mbabazi's camp, but criticised Besigye's conduct in the TDA.

"In my opinion, Besigye's position was that either he wins or all others lose. That is how I know him. How do you negotiate with somebody with that kind of view?" he asked. "I hope Besigye will get to realise that the situation at the end of the day required a combined force. I know he will get to realise it."

In a Saturday interview, Sseggona urged Besigye to accept the new trend in the opposition politics.

"We worked with Dr Besigye who we found to be very good and we think has contributed immensely to the opposition struggle and democracy as a whole but we must have leadership changes," Sseggona said.

"We have not been working for him [Besigye] but with him, [and] we must continue searching for alternatives that can work better, we need to bring new people on board," he added.

Although he is a DP MP, Sseggona rallied on the popularity of the pro-Buganda Ssuubi pressure group to join Parliament and to also promote Besigye's candidature in Buganda.

MP Sseggona declined to name the other MPs he is working with to promote Mbabazi's candidature for fear of causing divisions within the opposition parties, especially FDC.
LIABILITY?

FDC's internal revolt is growing, including within its decision-making organ, the National Executive Committee (NEC), where sources say there are voices that want the party to prevail over its flag bearer to reconsider his decision to stand in next year's presidential elections.

"His candidature appears to be a liability to the party," said the FDC NEC member who also holds a senior leadership position in the party.

"I doubt whether his candidacy will sell because the public seems to have shifted to Mbabazi. I tried to impress this upon NEC and some of them seem not to understand what lies ahead of us," the party official further said.

Already, the party seems to have lost control over some of its MPs who are now openly canvassing support for Mbabazi. Mbabazi on Friday said that although FDC as a party did not agree with other TDA Summit members on his candidature, many in FDC were working with him.

"For us we are looking for consensus from everywhere in the population and even political parties. I know many in CP that desperately want the change we are pursuing, I know many in FDC who are with us," Mbabazi said.
CALCULATIVE

Within the broader opposition, sources say there is a group of MPs that have chosen to remain silent so that they can critically study the political waves before they can declare their allegiance to either side.

"Some of us are in a dilemma because we have a long relationship with Besigye but then, the unsolicited opinion in the constituencies shows that Mbabazi is the preferred candidate," an opposition MP who did not want to be named said on Saturday.

One group that the pro-Mbabazi forces in Parliament have not approached are the UPC MPs because of their recent pronouncements that they would rather ally with the ruling NRM than any other group in the opposition. 
POINT  OF DEPARTURE

UPC has 13 MPs and all, except Rev Fr Jacinto Ogwal (Otuke) are opposed to opposition processes because of the Olara Otunnu – Jimmy Akena fight over the UPC presidency.

It is understood that Besigye had planned to launch public protests last week after government ignored his September 18 deadline on electoral reforms, but the protests could not take off after most of the people he previously worked with refused to back him up.

Sensing that he had lost his traditional allies, Besigye sought new alliances which however raised suspicions within opposition circles.
Some of his newfound allies are feared to be agents of the state with intent of disorganising the opposition.

In fact on September 17, FDC president Maj Gen Mugisha Muntu alluded to this fear when he told journalists after a group of FDC MPs led youths into a TDA meeting in Bugoloobi and pulled out Besigye that the raid was masterminded by the state.

"There is an active third hand, it is an invisible hand, it is very subtle in the way it operates," Muntu said. "The problem is that some FDC leaders have failed to detect that kind of hand but those of us who have the experience, who keep noticing whenever those fingerprints appear, we know," he added.

Besigye is also accused of making vague statements that have recently pushed him to the defensive and at the same time winning Mbabazi support.

"I heard him saying Mbabazi represents fake change, but every time he talks like that, it is like telling people to remain with Museveni. Besigye needs to avoid make vague statements that he will need to endlessly explain," an MP said.

Another MP who also wanted to remain anonymous urged Besigye to understand that there is desperation for change which is driving the people to any candidate who promises to deliver the change at whatever cost.

"This leaves Besigye in a dilemma," the MP said. "It's now not about people or individuals but change bearers. That's how monarchists in the 1970s could not afford to send away Milton Obote because they wanted to remove Idi Amin."

However, the FDC deputy president for northern Uganda, Reagan Okumu, dismissed the information about the defections as "propaganda" by those who want to gain political capital from spreading such information.

Okumu, who is the Aswa MP, said the opposition would back both candidates since they are on the same team and fighting for the same goal of getting rid of Museveni. 
sadabkk@observer.ug
Additional reporting by Benon Oluka.

Besigye faces FDC MPs revolt

http://www.observer.ug/news-headlines/40133-besigye-faces-fdc-mps-revolt

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