{UAH} Pojim/WBK: Counting Mbabazi, Besigye gains and losses from TDA
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Counting Mbabazi, Besigye gains and losses from TDA
When it became clear last Thursday that former prime minister Amama Mbabazi and Dr Kizza Besigye, the two contenders for the joint opposition presidential candidate, had both refused to give way, even a little, for the other, the principals in The Democratic Alliance went separate ways.
TDA's nine political entities split into two camps. FDC and the Conservative Party President John Ken Lukyamuzi backed Besigye's candidacy while seven including the People's Progressive Party (PPP), Justice Forum (Jeema), DP's Norbert Mao, UPC's Olara Otunnu, Prof Gilbert Bukenya of the Pressure for National Unity (PNU) and UFA's Beti Kamya backed Mbabazi.
The other eminent members of the summit, TDA's top decision-making organ, who backed Mbabazi include former Buganda Katikkiro (premier) Mulwanyamuli Ssemwogerere, former minister Miria Matembe, Imam Kasozi, Rev Fr Gaetano Batanyenda, Bishop Macleod Ochola and Luweero Woman MP, Brenda Nabukenya (representing the youth).
It is not possible to pinpoint an outright winner from the standoff between Mbabazi and Besigye, but definitely one of the two men walked away with a better deal. From the outset, both gentlemen wanted to be the TDA consensus pick and none got that, which presupposes that there was no winner.
However, those who have closely followed the process of selecting a joint candidate, which kicked off a month ago, told us that Mbabazi is a winner much as he didn't get the result he wanted.
"I cannot say that either of the two people won outright but I think that the outcome made Mbabazi's presidential bid stronger," said one member of the TDA summit who declined to be named.
DYNAMICS CHANGED
At the beginning of September, when TDA embarked on the joint candidate selection process, Dr Besigye was an early favorite. Others in the race were Prof Gilbert Bukenya and Norbert Mao. The Besigye factor, indeed, made Mbabazi hesitant to join TDA.
However, when Mbabazi made the calculated step to enter TDA on September 11, shortly after addressing overflowing crowds in eastern Uganda during his promotional tour as a presidential aspirant, the dynamics in TDA changed. It became clear it had become a two-horse race between Besigye and Mbabazi.
Interviewed about the outcome of the process, former Chwa MP, Livingstone Okello-Okello, the chairperson of TDA's National Candidates Selection Committee, which vetted the candidates, said the winner is Mbabazi.
"He has got the overwhelming support within the summit. You see even when it is a court judgment, if on the panel there are nine judges and two judges dissent from the majority, the judgment of court will be that of the majority. In the current case it is seven and a half out of nine. Let us forget the semantics of consensus. Consensus is not unanimity," Okello-Okello said on Friday.
Okello-Okello, who has been in opposition politics for the last two decades, said that Mbabazi has more mobilisers and supporters than Besigye. "I have been in the village and the people say they want a new face. That is the reality, which you cannot just wish away," he said.
Busiro East MP Medard Sseggona Lubega, Besigye's lawyer, said it is going to be hard for Besigye to marshal the support he has had in the previous elections.
"I have heard some of my colleagues in FDC claim that they have crowds. But, they don't provide context to this. We are the very people who have been mobilizing for Besigye in the last 15 years but [we] have shifted to JPAM. So, where are those people?" he said.
In an appearance on CBS FM last week, Sseggona said he is finding difficulty to tell Besigye the same thing he told Mao in the 2011.
"Dr Besigye is not bad but there is someone better than him," he said.
During the 2011 election, Sseggona was part of the Suubi-2011, a Buganda pressure group that mobilised political support for Besigye. The group managed to bring to parliament more than 10 legislators. We have been told that most members of the group are backing Mbabazi. In fact Ssemwogerere, who was their patron, is backing Mbabazi.
"We have brought the new hope for Uganda," Sseggona said on CBS.
During the Capital Gang radio talk show at the weekend, Uganda Federal Alliance president Beti Kamya, another TDA summit member, said: "The ground has shifted to Mbabazi...these are people who have been supporting Besigye."
She said a number of FDC MPs are supporting Mbabazi.
BESIGYE CONFIDENT
At a press conference on Friday, Besigye said: "We have never had an agreement on supporting one single candidate. […but] some elements of DP, UPC leadership supported my candidature.
"The population does not follow party lines. The population chooses who has the best chance," he said.
Besigye argues that the population is segmented along certain preferences. "It will not be easy for the traditional opposition supporters to immediately embrace the candidature of Hon Amama Mbabazi…," he said.
Although Besigye helped to shield FDC from being swallowed by Mbabazi, some senior members within FDC say that pulling out of the joint flag bearer race dented the main opposition party.
"We are now being looked at as a selfish party. Not cooperative," said one senior FDC MP.
Daily Monitor columnist, Dr Munini K. Mulera, an FDC supporter in North America, took a swipe at Besigye's supporters who criticized TDA after it emerged that Mbabazi was likely to be the joint presidential ticket.
"It seems that the Besigye group entered the alliance with a predetermined expectation of only one outcome. It had to be Besigye and no one else. This was akin to Yoweri Museveni's sole candidature project. Just as we reject Museveni's personalization of the NRM and the Uganda state, we reject the personalization of opposition leadership."
Mulera questioned whether Besigye's heroic struggles in the last 15 years were focused on transforming the country and not his desire to become president.
"I am deeply disappointed by his conduct, together with the reckless methods of his supporters, which raise serious questions about his readiness to lead a peaceful transition from the authoritarian and intolerant regime that he has so valiantly challenged," he wrote.
skakaire@observer.ug
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