{UAH} CROWD POWER: Will Dr Olara Otunnu vote Amama Mbabazi?

The Wednesday Nov 3, spectacle of sizable crowds engulfing FDC flag bearer for President, Col. Dr. Kizza Besigye, from nomination at Namboole stadium to his rally at Nakivubo stadium was quite a good start to the season. However, this shouldn't anyone celebratory ideas yet as it can be fatally misleading.

Of all nominees, Besigye is unique as he is the only three-time loser and should therefore be a case study.

The nature of crowds is such that they are as fluid and diverse as the people in them. Technically, they are composed of members with different interests related to the cause in conflicting magnitudes. Some are certainly passionate and others passive while some are suspect. There is no assurance that what people express in public is what they do in private.

For instance-it's funny to think of but why not-there is no evidence to prove that family, relatives, neighbours, friends, aides and "work place" relations vote for contenders associated with them.

I cannot, to take another twist, guarantee that the Hon. Nganda votes or will vote Col. Besigye but that's what the world of secret ballot does. No guarantee or transparency permitted!

It goes a notch higher and confusing to think that Besigye or President Museveni may not vote themselves. We all saw what UPC's Dr. Otunnu did in 2011.

For those who don't know, he "forgot" to turn up to vote himself. The result: trailing at the tally. Now nobody knows yet whether he will turn up to vote Mr. Go Forward, Amama Mbabazi.

Besigye is a super activist with vigour to behold and crowds aren't a peculiarity in his case. That he has still lost elections thrice is, hence, hard to believe for the visually impressed but not for thorough witnesses. 

 

The trend shows that whenever he generates momentum with his punch-in-the-air, ruble rousing talent, for diehards it looks like the deal is done and that's where it all ends. They lie back, waiting for Prof. Kiggundu to do them a favour in vain. They lose out on benefits of the meticulous art of search and seduce i.e kakuyege (person to person grassroot duty), where incumbent President Museveni is the star of the game.

 

Admit or deny, Museveni is a most exceptional mobiliser. If it were not for narrowness of space around his person, he would personally be in touch with every ally possible. He looks out for adversaries and intimately talks them into place while traditional opponents count shadow votes basing on idealist beliefs of fault-finding and believing that all listeners are agreeable on the way forward.

 

That's the damage over-confidence does in many spheres of life. Ugandans are not fools! One has to do more to win them over. Even preachers have failed to make headway using the "podium" approach.

 

Election dynamics are such that one must have a brand recognizable all over but which, too, must be marketed in the "hills and valleys, thorn patches" where some of the supporters aren't obviously fanatical but would surely be on hand on Election Day. This is the same "physics" that should guide appreciating who stands to benefit most from the popular culture of opinion polls which for some gives a false sense of electoral bliss.

 

On that note, candidates at all levels are warned and advised to never count on crowd power or anybody, for that matter, before the game is over. Say no to ghost crowds and liberate contestants from apparent betrayal!

 

Robert Atuhairwe

(Article furnished to the Ugandan press on November 7, 2015)