{UAH} Edmund/Pojim/WBK: The Empire is falling: Why Kenya’s influence in East Africa is on a downward spiral | The Star, Kenya
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The Empire is falling: Why Kenya's influence in East Africa is on a downward spiral
The failure of the Government of Kenya to secure construction of the pipeline to transport crude oil from Uganda via Lamu port signals of the decline of Kenya's political and economic influence in East Africa.
With more news that South Sudan seems not keen on a pipeline with Kenya and that Tanzania and Uganda have signed a new agreement to construct a parallel railway line from Arusha to Musoma, effectively making the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) non-viable the writings are clear on the wall. The Empire is falling!
But how did Kenya get to this point where it is outmanoeuvred by its 'strategic good' neighbours? Where has the country erred? Has someone entered the game that is outwitting Nairobi? Or has the country's henchmen grossly overestimated their influence in the East African region all this while?
In the past, Kenya has been perceived as an influential economic and political player in East Africa on accounts of its arguably diversified economy, expansive territory and large population. This has also been because of Kenya's role as a regional hub for transport, communication, trade and investment with Kenya's landlocked neighbours. So what changed?
Perhaps if we consider the important things that a country requires in order to be influential – what political scientists call geo-economic power; we could begin to understand when the rains began to beat Kenya.
Normally, a country draws geo-economic power from its geography and natural resources, strength of its economy and character of its population. These depend almost entirely on effectiveness of its government.
To begin with, Kenya's economy has been considered the most diversified and robust in East Africa. In fact its GDP remains the largest. However this will cease to guarantee Kenya's influence in the future if things proceed as they do.
Economic growth trends show that Kenya has been eclipsed by its neighbours. In countries like Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda the economy grew at an average rate of about 7.0% over the past decade while Kenya's grew at just about 5.0%. In fact the IMF projects that Tanzania and Rwanda will see more robust economic developments the countries continue to further diversify their economies, improve investment climate and strategically invest proceeds from exploiting natural resources.
Secondly, influential countries derive their power from exploiting strategic assets in terms of the size of their territory and the character of their geography. For Kenya, these no longer provide any substantive competitive advantage. Why? Because Tanzania which is emerging as an arch rival is double the size of Kenya (947.3 km 2), has a far more advantageous proximity to the sea and is harbouring multiple valuable natural resources including natural gas that far outstrip what we have in Kenya.
In fact while its neighbours seem to benefit from their geography, Kenya has allowed its long porous border with Somalia to cause more trouble than advantage.
And perhaps the most important thing is that Kenya's neighbours seem to get the hang of what to do with their geography while Kenyans are consumed in selfish private interest. Uganda is positioning itself as a strategic node in an ambitious trans-African transport and communications network from the Indian Ocean coast through to the Atlantic coast. Tanzania on the other side is elbowing Kenya to emerge as the preferred port of entry into this transport network. This could explain the shift of the pipeline to Tanga route and the new railway line deal between Uganda and Tanzania. Meanwhile Kenya's misfortune is that partners fear that Kenyans will grossly inflate land rates in anticipation for compensation as they do every while a piece of infrastructure is in the offing.
By far the most important aspect of geo-economic power is effectiveness of government. This is perhaps the strongest indicator of the decline of Kenya's influence. An effective government is necessary for strategising to exploit national assets to achieve sustained economic growth. It is also necessary for building strong institutions, inculcating strategic national ideas and connecting with the people.
For Kenya, over the five decades of its existence, successive administrations have been distracted by sub-national politics, focused on individual and sectarian interest. Kenyans have been endlessly bickering about ethnicity while their rivals are consolidating democratic gains and building strong institutions. Whilst Tanzania has had four successive peaceful political transitions, the Kenyan experience has been marred by intense political contestations which have deeply divided the country and destabilised its national institutions.
Such inadequacies in governance have prevented Kenya from focusing on long term strategic goals upon which its geo-economic power in the future would be based. A good example is how petty politics has ensured that Kenya's northern frontier is cut off for decades without infrastructure and security. It was no surprise therefore that some of the reasons cited by Uganda against construction of the oil pipeline through Kenya were that the Government of Kenya would not guarantee its safety (from Al Shabab) and that it would cost more to construct due to remoteness of the north resulting from decades of politically motivated neglect by government.
Moreover, influential countries thrive on governments that unite people around specific strategic ideas that drive and sustain their economic and political power. Americans thrive on the idea of democracy and individual freedom which are believed to be significant facilitators of US geo-economic power. Democracy has opened up markets and new frontiers for American enterprises. Individualism is argued to have facilitated innovation and private enterprise that have driven the economic successes in the US.
In Kenya, despite operating on an ambitious constitutional dispensation, there appears to be little resonance with specific national ideals amongst the public. Kenya continues to project a destructive image of corruption, ethnocentrism and political bigotry. These toxic ideas prevent inculcation of a true sense of nationhood and concord between the people and government.
Nonetheless some people will argue that the Government of Kenya has the Vision 2030 and that it has invested substantively in mega infrastructure – highways, railways, ports and power plants. Fair enough, but have Kenyans internalised the vision and implications of the massive infrastructure investments? Why then would they brag about eight-lane superhighways connecting Nairobi to sub-optimal growth areas while farmers cannot transport cane, potatoes, milk and maize to the market or factory because of bad roads? Why would Kenyans be obsessed with tech cities when they export raw coffee and tea with no value addition and dairy farmers spill milk due lack of processing capacity? If Kenya truly understands the value of its investments, how could it afford to lose out on the oil pipeline which was considered an anchor infrastructure for broader goals like the US$23 billion Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia Transport (LAPSSET) Corridor?
Lastly, a country's population provides significant advantages in terms of human capital that can be exploited to improve the economy. In East Africa, Kenya remains one of the states with the largest population occupied by about 45.5 million people. In the past it has exploited this through its relatively robust education system to develop a substantively literate population and qualified workforce, attracted investment and encouraged innovation.
However, again Kenya's neighbours appear to have caught up with it in nearly all development indicators in the education sector. According the World Bank's World Development Indicators (2015), Kenya is almost at par with other East African states in many crucial indicators like adult literacy, per-capita expenditure in education and enrolment in tertiary institutions among others.
Moreover, even just by sheer numbers, population projections show that Tanzania will overtake Kenya by 2030 and Uganda shall have closed in. While population can be a source of trouble if not well managed, it can also provide strategic advantages in terms of consumption (markets) and production (labour) like in India and China.
Perhaps Kenya's diplomatic arrogance is also to blame. Some people view Kenya's recent exploits at the International Criminal Court (ICC) and hosting of some high profile global meetings as a show of might, others see no merit in terms of strategic national gains. The tale is also told of Kenyan diplomats and negotiators who show up at international forums ill equipped and incapable of cutting favourable deals because people are employed based not on their qualifications but on who they know in the ruling elite. No wonder, Kenya's alliances with developing countries are weak and its partnerships with developed nations are chaotic if not short sighted.
In sum Kenya seems to have lost hold on most of the things that allowed it competitive edge over its neighbours and geo-economic rivals in the past like effective institutions, political stability, robust economy, human capital and strategic positioning in East Africa. This is especially because its neighbours appear to be improving their quality of government and maximising on their strategic advantage while Kenya is consumed in sub-national politics that is taking the country nowhere at least if it does not destroy it.
Until Kenya reroutes the focus of government to the 'people' and not the interests of a minority elite that seem to have hijacked government - Kenya is an empire in decline both economically and politically. Proceeding this way, it will be difficult to project Kenya's ideas and interest in East Africa and broader in the international arena in the future.
The author is a research associate and Director for Policy and Research for Africa Centre for people Institutions and Society (Acepis). He tweets @okwaroh
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