{UAH} .TRACING THE HISTORY OF UGANDA'S ATTEMPTS AT OPPOSITION COALITIONS

TRACING THE HISTORY OF UGANDA'S ATTEMPTS AT OPPOSITION COALITIONS

 

By CHANGE OF GUARDS

During the struggle for independence, the UNC merged with UPU to form UPC.  During the first general elections, the DP defeated the UPC but in a subsequent election shortly after, the UPC allied with the KY to defeat DP.  In 1964 the UPC/KY alliance broke down and DP's leader of opposition in Parliament, Basil Bataringaya defected to the ruling DP together with majority DP Members of Parliament.  By the time Idi Amin overthrew Obote in 1971, political opposition had almost collapsed and the country was a defacto one part state.  

During Iddi Amin's 8 years military reign political pluralism was non-existent.  There was no internal political resistance within the country.  However, exiled groups and individuals ran a sustained political and diplomatic campaign against the regime.  These different entities had never attempted to form a single united opposition against the regime.  It was only in 1979 when the Tanzanian army was nearing the overthrow of the Iddi Amin regime exiled Ugandan groups and individuals came together in a loose political coalition.  A total of 24 different groups (see attached list of groups and representatives) turned up. They were assembled by Tanzania in it's northern town of Moshi where they came up with an umbrella organization called UNLF.  However, trouble arose when it came to the election of it's leadership.

The government of Tanzania strategically fronted a Muganda, Prof. Yusuf Lule in order to win over the influential Baganda ethnic group.  Majority of the delegates who were allied to the UPC and the exiled former President Milton Obote did not favor the choice of Prof. Lule.  When the delegates failed to agree on the chairmanship between Prof. Lule and Paulo Muwanga, the conference was adjourned so that members could come up with a compromise choice.  When they reconvened shortly after, Prof. Lule was selected as the UNLF Chairman.  

According to the Retired Justice of the Supreme Court, George Kanyeihamba who was one of the delegates, Prof. Lule was imposed on UNLF by Nyerere.  He said that a one Dr. Martin Aliker delivered the well crafted blackmail that broke the back of the delegates; 

   "While you were consulting for us we were contacting State House in Dar Es Salaam and they told us to tell you that if you elect Muwanga, they will ask you to leave Tanzania and go and play your silly game somewhere else.  So, that is the position we are in, if you elect Muwanga, we are going to be deported from Tanzania, they will take us to a country of our choice where we can play our games.  However, if you elect Prof. Lule, they will call us to State House to form a government in exile."

This tactical move must have been plotted by Museveni who was worried of the strength of the UPC.  

Prof. Kanyeihamba goes ahead to assert that;

        "People should not tell you, and some books have said so, that Prof. Lule was a compromise candidate.  He was not, he was chosen for us by the Tanzanians - by Nyerere long before we went to Moshi.  Kayiira and I went to see the Tanzanian High Commissioner in London, he took us to Lule.  He said he has been selected to spearhead the new movement.  In a January 1971 Television interview, Nyerere who had not only offered sanctuary to the ousted former President Obote but still recognized him as President was asked about the jubilation for the coup in Kampala and he responded;

     "The jubilating in Kampala has not surprised us.  I don't know who has been surprised about the rejoicing in Kampala.  Kampala is in Buganda.  President Obote overthrew the Kabaka of Buganda.  President Obote was trying to build the unity of Uganda and so, the tribalists in Buganda will rejoice if President Obote is overthrown. So, this did not surprise us.........Dr. Obote is the President of Uganda who happens for the time being to be in Tanzania."

No wonder, after the overthrow of Iddi Amin, Prof. Lule's presidency lasted only 68 days when he was replaced by Godfrey Binaisa who also.lasted only seven months in office.

An attempt at forming a coalition against the UPC in the 1980 general elections only ended up in the formation of Museveni's UPM.  The UPC formed a government while the DP formed the opposition and Museveni took to the bush to wage a guerrilla war against UPC.  In Bush, Museveni's PRA tricked Prof. Lule's UFF into a merger that saw the birth of the NRA.  Despite several efforts for a merger, Kayiira's UFM and Museveni's NRA could not merge.  In West Nile, Moses Ali's UNRF could not merge with the Amin Onzi's FUNA.  When the Acholi overthrew Obote in 1985, they formed a loose coalition with former fighting groups like FEDEMO, UNRF, FUNA and UFM against Museveni's NRA.  This coalition fell into Museveni's trap of Kenya's mediated infamous Nairobi Peace Talks before they were humiliatingly defeated.  It's only Libya's Gadaffi who negotiated for the UNRF to give way to the NRA during the Katonga stalemate.

After Museveni took power in 1986, he incorporated different fighting groups but soon after the UFM and FEDEMO were to face a purge.   He indefinitely suspended political parties and ran a one party state disguised as a Movement type of governance.  The defeated UNLA soldiers who had run to Sudan formed the UPDA fighting group whose faction signed a peace agreement with Museveni in 1988. It's breakaway faction metamorphosed into the HSM and eventually the LRA that fought a sustained 20 years insurgency.  In West Nile, the UNRF II of Ali Bamuze and WNBF of Juma Oris  operated independently. Despite being supported by Sudan, the LRA, WNBF and UNRF II could not merge into a United front.  

During the 1994 - 95 Constitutional Assembly, delegates were split along advocacy for political pluralism and a single party dubbed Movement.  During the first general elections of 1996, the multiparty advocates came up with a loose coalition dubbed Interparty Forces Coalition (IPFC) that backed DP's Ssemogerere against Museveni.  Despite the suspension of political pluralism, within the Movement system government there emerged groups that advocated for political pluralism. The Parliamentary Advocacy Forum (PAFO) and the Young Parliamentary Group (k(YPG) composed of Parliamentarians were such groups.  During the 2001 general elections, Dr. Besigye ran on the multiparty ticket dubbed Interparty Coalition  (IPC).  After these elections, Dr. Besigye and company founded the Reform Agenda (RA) that merged with PAFO at a conference in South Africa to found the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) in 2004.  This marked the end of political coalitions and in the subsequent general elections, each political entity would independently battle it out.   

With the entry of Museveni's right hand man, Amama Mbabazi into the presidential race in 2015, an attempt at an opposition coalition was made. The Transitional Democratic Alliance (TDA) comprising all the opposition political entities failed to agree on a single flagbearer.  The contention dwelt on FDC's Dr. Besigye and Go Forward's Amama Mbabazi.  Kenya's Railla Odinga attempted at mediation but failed.  Former UN Secretary General, Kofi Anan, former ICC Prosecutor Moreno Ocampo, Pro. mamdanProf. Anyang Nyong and a couple of USA and UK lobby groups also attempted to make the two camps forge a coalition but it failed. A good section of the usual opportunists blamed Dr. Besigye for refusing to give way to Mbabqzi.  When the two men separately went to the polls in February 2016, Mbabazi was given 130,000 votes while Dr. Besigye was given 3,600,000 million votes.  It became clear that Amama Mbabazi had only wanted to ride on Dr. Besigye's popularity.  

For the January 2021 polls, initially some sections of the usual opportunists were calling Dr. Besigye to rally behind  their preferred candidate.  He instead opted no to contest so that he is not seen as a stumbling block for an opposition coalition and a joint candidate.  Four days to the polls, all the 10 presidential candidates have not even come anywhere close to forming a coalition or fronting a joint candidate.  It's only recently that they agreed on the formation of a joint tallying centre to compute the election results and a joint vote protection to ensure a transparent tallying process across the country.  

Opposition coalition or no coalition; joint candidate or no joint candidate; ........

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Rehema
Patriot in Kampala,East Africa:Assalamu Alaikum

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