{UAH} NUP SETS TOUGH CONDITIONS FOR KADAGA: FIRST QUIT NRM IF YOU WANT OUR 52 VOTES

By Mulengera Reporter 

Led by Mathias Mpuuga with Aisha Kabanda serving as Secretary, the Committee the NUP retreat in Jinja put in place to chat some way forward on the Speakership race for the 11th Parliament has finalized its work. And in their report they are proposing that NUP directs its 52 MPs to vote for Rebecca Kadaga but on condition that she isn't Gen Museveni's candidate.

The largest opposition party, which has 52 out of the 109 MPs the combined opposition has in 11th Parliament, is vowing to front their own candidate and denounce the incumbent should Kadaga get endorsed by both CEC and NRM caucus to be the ruling party candidate for Speakership.

"The report will be discussed and processed further during the NUP caucus retreat this Sunday. And our ultimate decision will be guided by what becomes the NRM final position. Should they front Kadaga as their official candidate, then NUP will front its own candidate for Speakership because we aren't comfortable endorsing someone fronted and sponsored by a party whose leadership remains unapologetic about ongoing abduction and kidnaps of our people," says a top NUP official close to the process.    

The irony in all this is that NUP risks being castigated for being incoherent and simplistic on this issue with some analysts already asserting that the more prudent position would be to endorse and vote for a candidate who has good merit regardless of who else supports him or her.

"What then would be the point supporting someone who you give conditions not to be supported by another party which moreover has 337 MPs out of the total 529 comprising the 11th Parliament? It's a game of numbers and how then do you work towards decimating your candidate's numbers by demanding that they first denounce NRM which clearly controls more than 50% of the Electoral College to determine the next Speaker?" says one of the political pundits we spoke to for this article.

It's a very crippling condition Kadaga is very unlikely to accept and to be correctly understood, the NUP will require a Semujju Nganda-like publicist to explain away the ambiguity their vague position on Speakership is likely to create. So numerically strong is NRM that no serious contender should be expected or required to fulfill a condition that antagonizes him or her with such a party in the 11th Parliament.

Besides the 337 MPs, the ruling party has also attracted the loyalty and solidarity of 53 out of the 73 independents (this leaves opposition with only 20 assuming the likes of Abdul Katuntu don't subsequently surrender and agree to be captured by the NRM). The 53 include the 10 army MP who have always flocked with the ruling party with only a few like Gen Henry Tumukunde, Gen David Sejjusa and Col Fred Bogere ever publicly dissenting from the NRM mainstream position on anything.

But sources also say that its very unlikely for NUP to get anyone willing to offer themselves for Speakership because the likes of Mpuuga and Medard Segona, who some in the Kamwokya-based Politburo previously urged to vie, declined saying they aren't prepared to bring problems to themselves. But the larger truth is, as Abed Bwanika recently told CBS, majority NUP luminaries are focused on grabbing the LoP and other potentially lucrative positions such as opposition chief whip and Committee Chairpersons. They consider Speakership to be taking on too much risk for no good reason the very reason many of them now perceive the very eloquent Semujju Nganda as merely a mad man.

But even practically it's simply not possible for the nascent party to marshal out a candidate between the Sunday NRM caucus meeting and the Monday voting. That would be expecting or demanding for too much from anyone. Even for the individual MPs who have already publicly fraternized with Kadaga won't easily be able to adjust and process any new decision should NUP come up with any position that denounces Kadaga.

Naturally, the party risks some fracas because some of its MPs, or allies from other parties, aren't going to disengage from Kadaga simply because the NUP has taken a position denouncing her simply because she is the one Gen Museveni is supporting too. You have allies like DP's Lutamaguzi Semakula, JEEMA's Asuman Basalirwa or even your own NUP MPs like Wakayima Musoke, Joseph Sewungu, Lukyamuzi Kalwanga and Joyce Bagala who have already gone full swing into the Kadaga thing and there is simply no way you can order them off without creating very serious contradictions resulting into some negative publicity which the party doesn't need at this time before it even proclaims its leadership in Parliament, a matter that will naturally create its own ruckus.

There are also claims by pro-Kadaga MPs that some key supporters of the Kamuli Woman MP have already been extending support to NUP in some way. One pro-Kadaga MP from Busoga claimed that their camp partly funded the party's retreat in Jinja on the hope that the incumbent Speaker would naturally be their candidate. "We have also promised them support for the EALA slots and denouncing Madam Kadaga would jeopardize all that gentleman's understanding we have between us and NUP," says a key strategist in the Kadaga camp. And yet if asked to choose between Bobi Wine and NRM's Kadaga, the likes of Lutamaguzi Semakula, Asuman Basalirwa or even Joseph Sewungu could choose the latter.

All this dilemma simply means the best way to approach the Speakership saga for the nascent NUP would be to let each and every MP follow their conscience and flock with the Speakership Candidate they prefer. They can each account to the public for their decision without burdening the party. Otherwise enforcing any anti-Kadaga position isn't going to be easy, in the remaining barely 48 hours, because there is no way you are going to sanction Allan Sewanyana for accepting to lead Semujju Nganda's campaigns without equally sanctioning those campaigning for Kadaga who the wider public resents more than Semujju for being number 3 in NRM and unapologetic about scrapping age limits in December 2017 to ensure Gen Museveni's continuity as President.

--

"When a man is stung by a bee, he doesn't set off to destroy all beehives"

--
Disclaimer:Everyone posting to this Forum bears the sole responsibility for any legal consequences of his or her postings, and hence statements and facts must be presented responsibly. Your continued membership signifies that you agree to this disclaimer and pledge to abide by our Rules and Guidelines.To unsubscribe from this group, send email to: ugandans-at-heart+unsubscribe@googlegroups.com
---
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Ugandans at Heart (UAH) Community" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to ugandans-at-heart+unsubscribe@googlegroups.com.
To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/ugandans-at-heart/CAFxDTfoXRfBo-%2BJtX770ciipk%3DJWSvVKLpMqMMbjB6_2LMjwHg%40mail.gmail.com.